"old news will be priced in at X time" is ridiculous, on its face.
That's what I am arguing against and, from my perspective is what you are arguing FOR but just saying X=Right now
When speculators expect a rise in exposure/adoption/new blood, they buy. That's exactly what "pricing in the news" is. That doesn't mean that new investors won't enter, and it doesn't mean that the trend won't reverse.
The premise here is one I don't buy and that's speculators alone determine price. I believe that speculators have 0 actual knowledge and just flail about and react more irrationally then they'd like you to believe. I know this isn't a popular opinion here and wont' bother arguing it
Re #2, yeah, who knows what will happen tomorrow? Maybe following a momentum shift, there will be a slew of bad news that will propel the market downwards in tune with momentum. What does that have to do with anything? Are you telling me that in that case, we will have to wait weeks or months for the market to price in the news? Markets are dynamic -- they don't sit around waiting for people to twiddle their thumbs.
You're talking about this as if this is just a linear process: people read news, they learn about bitcoin, then they buy some. You take into account absolutely no market activity outside of that.
No, of course there are a lot more forces at play then JUST this linear process and I'm taking the idea of being "priced in" in a much longer term view than I think you are. The ripples from any single news spread out and can have larger reactions than just the immediate future. It seems to me that the idea of "priced in" that you are trying to define is by definition whatever the price is right now and that just doesn't seem useful to discuss.
For example, prior to the reward halving when the price was still like 7ish there were people saying that the halving was already "priced in" and the minute the halving happened and the price didn't instantly double they said "told you so it was already priced in!" In my opinion, the slow price increase that followed the month or two after is a result of this halving and it just had a delayed effect.
We are in real uncharted territory with bitcoin and we really don't know what events will have what impacts. Even the most experienced trader (who can hardly handle real markets) has no prayer of accurately predicting pricing.
I generally agree with you. You only have to spend a few days in the "speculation" forum to understand that Bitcoin day traders on the whole are not NEARLY as sophisticated as stock market or other large market day traders. So "pricing in" is not something that happens here much IF AT ALL.
Add to this the illiquidity of the markets and the delayed effect of "press" and subsequent new monies entering the exchanges is obvious.
This is such a SMALL and NEW marketplace. Even a relatively small amount (< $5 million) of new capital coming into the markets can have a huge effects over a couple of weeks.
Compare that to a normal exchange, where an investor can just call up his portfolio manager and ask for funds to be switched in <24 hours or where a construction worker can log onto his mobile etrade account and switch funds around, and the idea of "pricing in" or "buy the rumor, sell the news" in BTC markets is laughable - its just not there yet.
PLUS we have to add in the effect that different countries have different news. We don't really know what's going on in China and they don't really know what's going on in the West.
But, generally, this IS an unpopular view on this forum, for obvious reasons.
