When's chartbuddy gonna return with the big charts? (I know you can click on them, but ain't nobody got time fo' dat)
Alternatively, where is (s)he getting the charts from?
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32614. (Read 26470646 times)
July 15, 2013, 08:06:00 AM
July 15, 2013, 08:02:15 AM
July 15, 2013, 07:41:10 AM
Maybe just a little worried that not everything is in the image of 2011:
Honestly, 2011 is a vague guide, not a rule-book. There was a fundamental difference right at the start. In 2011 when the bubble began the base was just under $1, so increased over 30x to peak. But the fall was only to $10, still 10x base. So it had a long way to fall, and it did for 5 months. In contrast, 2013 dropped straightaway to barely 3.5x the base of $13-$14. So a low was quickly tested. 2011 was the first bubble so a lot of people did not know what to expect. In 2013, everyone was looking at this prior event and obviously many people cashed out fast. If 2013 crashed only to $135 and bounced around that for a few months then the argument that the bottom had not been tested would be very sound. But this is not what happened.
Honestly, you can not compare the numbers and you're right that there are Fundamental difference.
I fear a psychology point 4 from 2011.
When the price rebounded just because the market was quickly oversold and everyone thought "it was the bottom!. Then, it was lower and several months later.
But again, I'm not saying that Bitcoin will be for 50-30, just I know that confirmation of bottom will be up next fall (or correction).
Either will be higher than 65, or it will double bottom, or it will be less.
Earlier this we can not know.
EDIT: It's not just about Bitcoin from2011, but such a "bounce before the completion of correction" is very common.
July 15, 2013, 07:33:45 AM
Maybe just a little worried that not everything is in the image of 2011:
Honestly, 2011 is a vague guide, not a rule-book. There was a fundamental difference right at the start. In 2011 when the bubble began the base was just under $1, so increased over 30x to peak. But the fall was only to $10, still 10x base. So it had a long way to fall, and it did for 5 months.
In contrast, 2013 dropped straightaway to barely 3.5x the base of $13-$14. So a low was quickly tested. 2011 was the first bubble so a lot of people did not know what to expect. In 2013, everyone was looking at this prior event and obviously many people cashed out fast. If 2013 crashed only to $135 and bounced around that for a few months then the argument that the bottom had not been tested would be very sound. But this is not what happened.
not to mention in 2011 there was 2x more bitcoins produced than it is now, and way less people interested. I doubt we will be repeating 2011 post bubble, it will be more like 2012 one.
July 15, 2013, 07:24:55 AM
Maybe just a little worried that not everything is in the image of 2011:
Honestly, 2011 is a vague guide, not a rule-book. There was a fundamental difference right at the start. In 2011 when the bubble began the base was just under $1, so increased over 30x to peak. But the fall was only to $10, still 10x base. So it had a long way to fall, and it did for 5 months.
In contrast, 2013 dropped straightaway to barely 3.5x the base of $13-$14. So a low was quickly tested. 2011 was the first bubble so a lot of people did not know what to expect. In 2013, everyone was looking at this prior event and obviously many people cashed out fast. If 2013 crashed only to $135 and bounced around that for a few months then the argument that the bottom had not been tested would be very sound. But this is not what happened.
July 15, 2013, 07:19:46 AM
It certainly looks like that $500,000 buy had little effect. The resistance is building. The longer we stay here the more it may build.
It's the bid side that is building up, not the resistance...
the only reason i bought in
well not fully but enough for a quick profit. July 15, 2013, 07:02:13 AM
July 15, 2013, 07:01:33 AM
It certainly looks like that $500,000 buy had little effect. The resistance is building. The longer we stay here the more it may build.
It's the bid side that is building up, not the resistance...
July 15, 2013, 06:58:21 AM
The 100 asks keeps coming back, someone clears it, and it comes back... like it's all from one person trying to incude panic buying above 100 but the small fish are not following ?
No, a 10k coins buy order was executed. People might call it manipulation, but whomever this manipulator is, (s)he bought 10k coins at 100 instead of 94. That is 60.000 USD difference.
II was asking myself why somebody would buy higher, if they could buy cheaper. Can't think anything besides manipulation or stupidity. Last 5 days were very strange
Maybe you could explain how exactly do you suggest to buy 10k coins for a cheaper price?
I genuinely doubt you understand that for a order to be executed, the market has to have enough depth for it. At which point in time are you referring to as 'cheaper'? Could you be specific, and maybe dig up one of chartbuddy's posts as evidence? As we speak, for a 10k order to be executed you must bid at a price of 105 usd. So much for cheaper.
What's your point:
No, a 10k coins buy order was executed. People might call it manipulation, but whomever this manipulator is, (s)he bought 10k coins at 100 instead of 94. That is 60.000 USD difference.
And again: Last 5 days were very strange.
Ok, you do misunderstand the way the market works.
If you have a large amount of bitcoins (or any other good in an open market) to trade, you have to bid at a value that will cover enough offers in the order book. The current price is in fact the price of the last transaction. It's just a rough indicator as the market is purely based on supply and demand.
Say someone just went into the market and bought 100 coins at 50 usd. You look at the market price and say "oh cool, 50 usd, let's buy". But the next sell offer could be at, say, 120usd.
The quote you made of my last post doesn't make sense, quite rightly so, I trying to point out how that manipulation theory falls short of basic logic. My point is exactly that, the buyer obviously bought at the price the market dictate. He spend 60.000 more than the price of the last transaction because it was the only possible way for him to buy that many coins. He could not possibly buy them for 94, there was not that many coins for sale at that price, there hasn't been for quite a quile.
Why would big transactions be manipulation? Because they are big? That is potato logic.
July 15, 2013, 06:58:01 AM
Manipulation mostly occurs in the orderbook, the walls. It has only a small effect in the overall market trend. The market came down from 136 to 65. The market is only midway between the two recent extremes. It is entirely reasonable for it to return to $120 for a while even if the long-term downtrend is still intact. If that downtrend has already exhausted, and the $266 bubble deflation has faded away, then it may kick around in hundred plus range for months.
Maybe just a little worried that not everything is in the image of 2011:
I do not the exact numbers, but each phase trend:
1. continuous downtrend until the end of triangle
2. rapid fall to oversold of the market
3. big jump bellow resistance and above support
4. side movement bellow resistance a peak in resistance
Yet it is all too much similar. But maybe "5." will be otherwise next...
We Shall Overcome resistance and will rise to 130?
or
We'll see next big correction of overbought market?
These are the questions that can answer only next days and weeks.
July 15, 2013, 06:52:58 AM
Still waiting for the panic selling and sub 50$ like you guys in bear customes promised.
Our promise shall be fulfilled 
It seems like manipulation failed. Someone wasted 10kBTC, bumped price to 100$ and will loose some when it starts to fall.
I think that we seen 100$ too many times last week and are resistant to it's charms
It certainly looks like that $500,000 buy had little effect. The resistance is building. The longer we stay here the more it may build. I say that as these last large buys had no rally behind them, price actually fell down and that is telling. But these guys might have very very deep pockets. Who knows, perhaps it's the FED as Manipulation is a part of their job...
July 15, 2013, 06:38:16 AM
Manipulation mostly occurs in the orderbook, the walls. It has only a small effect in the overall market trend. The market came down from 136 to 65. The market is only midway between the two recent extremes. It is entirely reasonable for it to return to $120 for a while even if the long-term downtrend is still intact. If that downtrend has already exhausted, and the $266 bubble deflation has faded away, then it may kick around in hundred plus range for months.
July 15, 2013, 06:22:30 AM
The 100 asks keeps coming back, someone clears it, and it comes back... like it's all from one person trying to incude panic buying above 100 but the small fish are not following ?
No, a 10k coins buy order was executed. People might call it manipulation, but whomever this manipulator is, (s)he bought 10k coins at 100 instead of 94. That is 60.000 USD difference.
II was asking myself why somebody would buy higher, if they could buy cheaper. Can't think anything besides manipulation or stupidity. Last 5 days were very strange
Maybe you could explain how exactly do you suggest to buy 10k coins for a cheaper price?
I genuinely doubt you understand that for a order to be executed, the market has to have enough depth for it. At which point in time are you referring to as 'cheaper'? Could you be specific, and maybe dig up one of chartbuddy's posts as evidence? As we speak, for a 10k order to be executed you must bid at a price of 105 usd. So much for cheaper.
What's your point:
No, a 10k coins buy order was executed. People might call it manipulation, but whomever this manipulator is, (s)he bought 10k coins at 100 instead of 94. That is 60.000 USD difference.
And again: Last 5 days were very strange.
July 15, 2013, 06:09:27 AM
The 100 asks keeps coming back, someone clears it, and it comes back... like it's all from one person trying to incude panic buying above 100 but the small fish are not following ?
No, a 10k coins buy order was executed. People might call it manipulation, but whomever this manipulator is, (s)he bought 10k coins at 100 instead of 94. That is 60.000 USD difference.
II was asking myself why somebody would buy higher, if they could buy cheaper. Can't think anything besides manipulation or stupidity. Last 5 days were very strange
Maybe you could explain how exactly do you suggest to buy 10k coins for a cheaper price?
I genuinely doubt you understand that for a order to be executed, the market has to have enough depth for it. At which point in time are you referring to as 'cheaper'? Could you be specific, and maybe dig up one of chartbuddy's posts as evidence? As we speak, for a 10k order to be executed you must bid at a price of 105 usd. So much for cheaper.
July 15, 2013, 06:02:08 AM
July 15, 2013, 06:01:12 AM
Quote from famous rpietilla:
Quote
The wisest people buy bitcoins now. They are cheap, and survived two bubbles. You can buy with rather big money. Everybody knows, but very few are in yet.
Viva Rpietilla forever!
He has cooled down and plans to keep taking his meds. He's still ultra-bull, but his timeframes and expectations are less crazy now.
July 15, 2013, 06:00:05 AM
The 100 asks keeps coming back, someone clears it, and it comes back... like it's all from one person trying to incude panic buying above 100 but the small fish are not following ?
No, a 10k coins buy order was executed. People might call it manipulation, but whomever this manipulator is, (s)he bought 10k coins at 100 instead of 94. That is 60.000 USD difference.
II was asking myself why somebody would buy higher, if they could buy cheaper. Can't think anything besides manipulation or stupidity. Last 5 days were very strange
Some people try to buy trends. It makes sense. When price is "low", you don't know it's low because it might just as well go lower. When it starts moving substantially however, especially if there is a breakout, it can make sense to hop on the train because you know the direction. Less profit, but also less risk than trying to "buy low".
July 15, 2013, 05:57:39 AM
Quote from famous rpietilla:
Quote
The wisest people buy bitcoins now. They are cheap, and survived two bubbles. You can buy with rather big money. Everybody knows, but very few are in yet.
Viva Rpietilla forever!
July 15, 2013, 05:54:15 AM
Quote from famous rpietilla:
Quote
The wisest people buy bitcoins now. They are cheap, and survived two bubbles. You can buy with rather big money. Everybody knows, but very few are in yet.
July 15, 2013, 05:45:20 AM
The 100 asks keeps coming back, someone clears it, and it comes back... like it's all from one person trying to incude panic buying above 100 but the small fish are not following ?
No, a 10k coins buy order was executed. People might call it manipulation, but whomever this manipulator is, (s)he bought 10k coins at 100 instead of 94. That is 60.000 USD difference.
II was asking myself why somebody would buy higher, if they could buy cheaper. Can't think anything besides manipulation or stupidity. Last 5 days were very strange
Yes it is the "logic": you don't bought cheap coins, so buy expensive now ...
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