Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32675.

Dalib

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Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 08:28:10 AM

Quote from: Dalib on July 10, 2013, 08:22:09 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 08:13:37 AM

I don't understand that sell off. I saw the price bottomed at 75 and then immediately went back to 77 Huh

IAS, I think it sold well see that the price is at the top for now and he made a dump until it is under price great demand. He needed the advantage of the first signal.
If he was waiting for more signals (MACD, EMA), we'd have fallen below the with 3K sell market order.

I have the money flow as being bottomed around 20.
I'm not sure I understand you. Are you saying it was a mis-timed sell?

Yes, but this is short time

See how, daily peaks and lows correspond to 15-30 min oversold and overbought (According MFI and RSI).

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zig30-minztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g25zxzi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gMFIzv

and large waves (like break at 66) with your (daily) chart as http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gSStochzi3gMFIzi4gStochRSIzv

Its About Sharing

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Antifragile

Quote from: Dalib on July 10, 2013, 08:22:09 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 08:13:37 AM

I don't understand that sell off. I saw the price bottomed at 75 and then immediately went back to 77 Huh

IAS, I think it sold well see that the price is at the top for now and he made a dump until it is under price great demand. He needed the advantage of the first signal.

If he was waiting for more signals (MACD, EMA), we'd have fallen below the with 3K sell market order.

I have the money flow as being bottomed around 20. (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gSStochzi3gMFIzi4gStochRSIzv)

I'm not sure I understand you. Are you saying it was a mis-timed sell?

Its About Sharing

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Quote from: samson on July 10, 2013, 08:17:55 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 08:13:37 AM

I don't understand that sell off. I saw the price bottomed at 75 and then immediately went back to 77 Huh

Of course it did, there's almost no bid volume down to 75.5 right now.

Good luck selling anything near current price if you want to dump.

I should have looked at the depth. Only 232 to $76.

And 743 to $75.50
And 1850 to $75

That filled in awfully quick considering we were just there, no?

Dalib

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Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 08:13:37 AM

I don't understand that sell off. I saw the price bottomed at 75 and then immediately went back to 77 Huh

IAS, I think it sold well see that the price is at the top for now and he made a dump until it is under price great demand. He needed the advantage of the first signal.

If he was waiting for more signals (MACD, EMA), we'd have fallen below the with 3K sell market order.

That it was the right decision at the right time when he needed to quickly sell 3k over 75

samson

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Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 08:13:37 AM

I don't understand that sell off. I saw the price bottomed at 75 and then immediately went back to 77 Huh

Of course it did, there's almost no bid volume down to 75.5 right now.

Good luck selling anything near current price if you want to dump.

Its About Sharing

legendary

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Antifragile

I don't understand that sell off. I saw the price bottomed at 75 and then immediately went back to 77 Huh

Dalib

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And still we have a 2.5k "bomb" at 79 and almost 9k at 80 Wink

fr33d0miz3r

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ChartBuddy

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sarc

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Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 02:55:07 AM

These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.

This one looks like a butt in the process of being hurt by lots of 'whale fire'. Chimes with reality.

Dalib

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it's funny Cheesy

I have submitted on the the tradingview .. :

and 2 minutes after that: Someone push the button "SELL 3k" ... Wink

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zig30-minztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g25zxzi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gMFIzv

xorglub

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3k BTC selloff ! Wow !

samson

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Big dump - down Shocked

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Dalib

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Quote from: Dalib on July 10, 2013, 06:28:54 AM

Yes, it's a very interesting situation on the market.
I assumed the bounce afterm last lows and up movement to 82 - 84. But, we have strong resistance at 80 (orange), despite the market looks bullish short term.
It's difficult to guess only one way for further development.

1. If we overcome resistance we might move up. (to 84 - 90)
2. Otherwise I see far more possible side movement between resitance and support ($ 74 - 80 ) so far. (by me 60:40)
3. And until we get over down the line (red), we can step be even lower, bellow $ 65. (still 70:30, but after several days)

PS: TA can tell us a probability of different options, it's not a divination of what is sure to happen tomorrow. Wink

Edit: When we argue the potential of overcoming resistance, we must answer the question:

Is more likely a large purchase (pump) or sale (dump) in 80 - 85 area ?

EDIT2: It seems that the wall 80 is slightly decreasing, but it seems that it's that part of the wall outruns to 79 Wink

ChartBuddy

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Its About Sharing

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Quote from: BitPirate on July 10, 2013, 05:42:01 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 05:28:56 AM

Quote from: BitPirate on July 10, 2013, 05:14:32 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 10, 2013, 02:55:07 AM

These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.

Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?

Blinkered much?

This isn't so much "my" opinion as it is years of TA analysis. A negative divergence of down volume on up price is one of the more reliable divergences in TA (though none are fool proof.)

Regarding your question, you are missing the important variable in the formular - Volume. If price wanted to move up it would buy, the coins are there, wall or not. Nothing prevents anyone from buying.

Looking at the recent history in the chart (and it's consistency of a down move in price after a negative volume divergence), we should not only correct, but correct hard as this divergence is a bit longer (thus far).
The unknown variable, per say, is that we are oversold. RSI is heading higher while the price remains low, one could argue that is a good divergence. (Though not very strong, the price is moving up.)

IAS

You may not know it, but your (subconscious) biases are showing through in your TA. Why select some volume movements as "flat" (when they are going marginally up), but "down" (when they are going marginally down). See, I can draw lines to illustrate a point too:

Of course, my lines and arrows prove nothing -- other than showing that your lines and arrows prove nothing too.

In terms of volume -- in the short term, people are waiting and seeing right now. If the wall at 80 comes down, there will be a bigger buy-in, and the next volume bar will be bigger. The longer it takes, the bigger it will potentially be. Things are a bit confuised right now as the market has been put off by dumpers/manipulators all along.

I don't understand your point exactly if you are not pointing out divergences with price direction changes? That is the issue here.
The marks you made were typical. Mine were atypical.

Clearly we each have a "fingerprint" in our analysis.

Dalib

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Yes, it's a very interesting situation on the market.

I assumed the bounce afterm last lows and up movement to 82 - 84. But, we have strong resistance at 80 (orange), despite the market looks bullish short term.

It's difficult to guess only one way for further development.

1. If we overcome resistance we might move up. (to 84 - 90)
2. Otherwise I see far more possible side movement between resitance and support ($ 74 - 80 ) so far. (by me 60:40)
3. And until we get over down the line (red), we can step be even lower, bellow $ 65. (still 70:30, but after several days)

PS: TA can tell us a probability of different options, it's not a divination of what is sure to happen tomorrow. Wink

Ultraviolet

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Wall at 80 won't come down. It's been directly tested once and approached two other times. If someone eats it we might see $85, otherwise we'll stagnate here until dumps. If we see $85/90 we'll still see dumps.

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