Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32676. (Read 26469917 times)
July 10, 2013, 06:17:04 AM
Can't see 60s today..
July 10, 2013, 06:08:30 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
This isn't so much "my" opinion as it is years of TA analysis. A negative divergence of down volume on up price is one of the more reliable divergences in TA (though none are fool proof.)
Regarding your question, you are missing the important variable in the formular - Volume. If price wanted to move up it would buy, the coins are there, wall or not. Nothing prevents anyone from buying.
Looking at the recent history in the chart (and it's consistency of a down move in price after a negative volume divergence), we should not only correct, but correct hard as this divergence is a bit longer (thus far).
The unknown variable, per say, is that we are oversold. RSI is heading higher while the price remains low, one could argue that is a good divergence. (Though not very strong, the price is moving up.)
IAS
You may not know it, but your (subconscious) biases are showing through in your TA. Why select some volume movements as "flat" (when they are going marginally up), but "down" (when they are going marginally down). See, I can draw lines to illustrate a point too:
Of course, my lines and arrows prove nothing -- other than showing that your lines and arrows prove nothing too.
In terms of volume -- in the short term, people are waiting and seeing right now. If the wall at 80 comes down, there will be a bigger buy-in, and the next volume bar will be bigger. The longer it takes, the bigger it will potentially be. Things are a bit confuised right now as the market has been put off by dumpers/manipulators all along.
Volume bars and candles should line up perfectly. But you have some truth in your post still, there's few movements with so little difference in volume bars/candles that it's not significant (more like flat).
July 10, 2013, 05:56:27 AM
The bounce isn't over yet, I can feel the tension building and I think another attack on 80 is going to happen very soon. Bitstamp's orderbook looks bullish as hell.
July 10, 2013, 05:42:01 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
This isn't so much "my" opinion as it is years of TA analysis. A negative divergence of down volume on up price is one of the more reliable divergences in TA (though none are fool proof.)
Regarding your question, you are missing the important variable in the formular - Volume. If price wanted to move up it would buy, the coins are there, wall or not. Nothing prevents anyone from buying.
Looking at the recent history in the chart (and it's consistency of a down move in price after a negative volume divergence), we should not only correct, but correct hard as this divergence is a bit longer (thus far).
The unknown variable, per say, is that we are oversold. RSI is heading higher while the price remains low, one could argue that is a good divergence. (Though not very strong, the price is moving up.)
IAS
You may not know it, but your (subconscious) biases are showing through in your TA. Why select some volume movements as "flat" (when they are going marginally up), but "down" (when they are going marginally down). See, I can draw lines to illustrate a point too:
Of course, my lines and arrows prove nothing -- other than showing that your lines and arrows prove nothing too.
In terms of volume -- in the short term, people are waiting and seeing right now. If the wall at 80 comes down, there will be a bigger buy-in, and the next volume bar will be bigger. The longer it takes, the bigger it will potentially be. Things are a bit confuised right now as the market has been put off by dumpers/manipulators all along.
July 10, 2013, 05:28:56 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
This isn't so much "my" opinion as it is years of TA analysis. A negative divergence of down volume on up price is one of the more reliable divergences in TA (though none are fool proof.)
Regarding your question, you are missing the important variable in the formular - Volume. If price wanted to move up it would buy, the coins are there, wall or not. Nothing prevents anyone from buying.
Looking at the recent history in the chart (and it's consistency of a down move in price after a negative volume divergence), we should not only correct, but correct hard as this divergence is a bit longer (thus far).
The unknown variable, per say, is that we are oversold. RSI is heading higher while the price remains low, one could argue that is a good divergence. (Though not very strong, the price is moving up.)
IAS
July 10, 2013, 05:20:59 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
Yes, this has been a great opportunity to double down.
July 10, 2013, 05:18:46 AM
Building a launchpad at $77. Next stop $90 
Should be heading towards the $90 mark soon.
thats what i had thought, but this sideways / stagnation has me nervous. ready to press that red button soon maybe
July 10, 2013, 05:18:24 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
July 10, 2013, 05:17:31 AM
and the more i think about that chart... perhaps time can only be integrated with a third dimension.
i just wonder if there is a way for displaying a more direct and obvious context to market evolution.
i just wonder if there is a way for displaying a more direct and obvious context to market evolution.
Ideally you'd want something interactive so you could scale and rotate and maybe playback over an accelerated timescale. That couldn't be integrated into the page though.
July 10, 2013, 05:16:37 AM
Building a launchpad at $77. Next stop $90
Should be heading towards the $90 mark soon.
July 10, 2013, 05:14:32 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
July 10, 2013, 05:11:42 AM
We are at 77.7777; came from 66.6666; going to 55.5555 or 88.8888?
Nobody believes uptrend is organic, no more panic buying, so we should go down.
Nobody believes uptrend is organic, no more panic buying, so we should go down.
July 10, 2013, 04:39:35 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
It looks to me like the day traders are moving the price about in the short term, but the swing traders are sitting on the side lines waiting for a stronger signal.
We have the price bobbing about within a short range, complete with some big 'show' orders, but nothing has really moved much for 48 hours or so.
What will the stronger signal be? Well, I'm standing by my previous position still - sold at 75 (Bitstamp) and plan to buy back in the 60s (say, 66). I still can't see the enthusiasm for a strong upward move at this time, although some bigger movements will come sooner or later.
I pretty much agree with your sentiment regarding the recent price move, in particular the swing traders waiting.
I am pretty sure we have been "manipulated" up a bit in the last few days, even with the oversold indicators on high. Those few large buy orders really changed the feeling.
I'm thinking a return to the 60's and then a bounce up and then a move to the 50's. Once we are there is anyones guess.
July 10, 2013, 04:31:21 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
It looks to me like the day traders are moving the price about in the short term, but the swing traders are sitting on the side lines waiting for a stronger signal.
We have the price bobbing about within a short range, complete with some big 'show' orders, but nothing has really moved much for 48 hours or so.
What will the stronger signal be? Well, I'm standing by my previous position still - sold at 75 (Bitstamp) and plan to buy back in the 60s (say, 66). I still can't see the enthusiasm for a strong upward move at this time, although some bigger movements will come sooner or later.
July 10, 2013, 04:27:11 AM
Looks to me that the ball was just the right size to get stuck in the 'ball trap' at the bottom. That's some serious shit - no way it could have bounced out of there. We could be here for a very long time unless someone gives it a very big kick.
So we have situation that no more people wants to sell because they are afraid of sudden price rise. At the other hand there are a lot of people who would buy if they could (argentina for example where price is already 30-40% more than gox). Then where the price could possibly go .... 
(other than up - if someone didnt understand my sarcasm)Wow, I had to check that and you are not lying! http://forexmagnates.com/bitcoins-soar-in-value-in-argentina-due-to-capital-control-laws-bitcoin-meetup-held-in-nations-capital/
Get the feeling things are moving in other parts of the world...
July 10, 2013, 04:16:21 AM
Looks to me that the ball was just the right size to get stuck in the 'ball trap' at the bottom. That's some serious shit - no way it could have bounced out of there. We could be here for a very long time unless someone gives it a very big kick.
So we have situation that no more people wants to sell because they are afraid of sudden price rise. At the other hand there are a lot of people who would buy if they could (argentina for example where price is already 30-40% more than gox). Then where the price could possibly go .... (other than up - if someone didnt understand my sarcasm) 
July 10, 2013, 04:15:44 AM
Building a launchpad diving board at $77. Next stop $90 $50
FTFY
July 10, 2013, 04:15:18 AM
its just a new trick of the big guys.. .. confusion ..
and then when nobody expects it.. TADAAAAA
or not
and then when nobody expects it.. TADAAAAA
or not
July 10, 2013, 03:28:44 AM
Building a launchpad at $77. Next stop $90
July 10, 2013, 03:01:20 AM
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