Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32878. (Read 26664625 times)

I think these figures reflect the ASICs reduced decentralisation situation rather than decreased interest in bitcoin. GPUs turned off or switched to litecoin, and much higher bitrate per node/miner, of which there are less?  (sorry I couldn't shrink the images tried putting [img width=100] in many different places...)

Ignoring the old short/mid-term up vs down debate, I'll restate a question I asked during the quiet weekend, about the assumed long-term bullishness. I got a few answers and an interesting discussion emerged about the Argentine situation, but I didn't get the answer that might convince a sceptic that bitcoin will really go to the next stage in the long term.

+1. This deserves fourth window.

I agree, very good.

+10
succint summary of our current state of affairs on this spec board

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

i've got a good feeling about this

Dunno if you're talking to me but:

1) I use bitcoin both as an investment (why not take advantage of its current unstability?) and as a currency (the way it was supposed to be).

2) I've introduced bitcoin to all my friends.

But yea, your idea on helping businesses didn't come to me, and it's actually a quite good idea, I should do it.

Also, BTC _will_ grow anyways.

Nice motivational speech.

Translation:  "Post your price chart, I can't understand the damn thing anyway.  So, I'll just blindly believe in my up, up, up theory."


Translation:  "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."

You know how we avoid bubbles and enjoy stability and gradual growth?

ECONOMY

Right now BTC is good for trading, that's it. What do you do with your bitcoins? Do you purchase things with them? I do, I try to spend them, make them, create business' around them etc. What are you doing to help grow the economy besides sitting on this forum bitching about whether or not your "investment" will grow, or decrease.

Go out to your locally owned business' ask them if they would be willing to accept BTC if you helped them set it up. That's what we do in our local community. How about you introduce BTC to 3 people a day, really talk to them about it. Inform them, give them your contact, get theirs for a follow up.

You really want your investment to grow. Make it happen, be apart of the generating the buzz, the next round of media hype. Right now all people know about is the media hype, the bullshit that is force fed to them. The "oh yeah the internet money that tanked".

I'm tired of hearing the what ifs, the maybes, the hopefully's, the well if. You know what you are hoping for? You're hoping for someone to get off their ass and push BTC to grow. Be that person.

What does prevent another bubble from rising up? The price can go up!

Naturally they are lagging indicators, no question there. They only confirm what the charts say, that we are in a deflating bubble. Just different ways of looking at the same thing.

Regarding "you shouldn't be so certain in your predictions, you're setting yourself up for a big fall". If you had 100% certainty and perfect timing, obviously you would go short on maximum leverage. I don't have 100% confidence, and I don't have perfect timing. Therefore, I don't short, and particularly not on high leverage (well, aside from not trusting Bitfinex). No falls to be had, merely heights to be missed.

I've been involved with BTC for some time actually; but that is besides the point.

Anyway, we will see who is right -- actually my point was less "It's going to the moon" and more, "you shouldn't be so certain in your predictions, you're setting yourself up for a big fall".

Additionally, I disagree that interest is fading. The indicators posted earlier lag the price -- if the price is appreciating, there will be more Google searches, more client downloads, etc. The fact that there is a hard bottom on some of the stats that is as much as 50% of the all-time peak is actually quite promising -- it sets a baseline on the non-speculative portion of the market.

so? you are saying the price is going up? if so, by how much? i think the opposite...the downside risk is a much higher % ...i.e., $50 more likely to come before $150...just looking at the charts...and the history of bubbles...

Burst bubbles slowly deflate. We were discussing evidence besides the price chart for the ongoing deflation of the bubble. I don't know why you refuse to understand that we have had a bubble and that it's deflating.

Perhaps it is this: Date Registered:    14-03-2013, 03:59:40 I see a lot of bubble deluded who signed up during the bubble and have seen no other face of Bitcoin.

Interest is fading all across the board. Simple.

You have no evidence!

Melodrama != evidence

Sure, post a price chart. I know the price has decreased. The question is if the price is about to increase or decrease though.

If long-term is 3 years and there is capitulation selling on high volume leading to <50, accompanied by extremely bearish sentiment ie the bubble has finally (mostly) deflated, then yes. I'm a long-term bull.

it's always useful to look at the larger picture...i think the deflation of the bubble is evident...but not complete...

What do u guys think of this bitcoin t-shirt? http://store.robberbaronswag.com/product/bitcoin-themed-shirt