Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32950. (Read 26467316 times)
June 16, 2013, 07:49:19 AM
I'm still waiting for some shorting to go down to 85-ish. The manips were to get the price down. If so, they'll then sell into any rally with good news.
June 16, 2013, 07:48:36 AM
If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.
The bounces were smaller every time, indicating that the market will not (yet) want to go up. This means it will go down. If it can't go up here it will go down.
This will happen:
-> a little bit more bouncing around here at these levels
-> decisive move below $100, breaking previous lows (huge triangle break)
-> fear and panic
-> $50 -> bounce -> a few weeks of hope -> down again
-> $50 -> smaller bounce -> a few days of (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $50 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> stops triggered and n00bs panic
-> $30 -> strong bounce -> a few months hope -> down agan
-> $30 -> smaller bounce - a few weeks (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $30 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> more stops and more panic
-> $20
-> me converting most of my Fiat to BTC
-> price goes up again, third bubble slowly beginning.
I'm thinking that something along these lines will happen with an additional bounce at $70 or $80 on the way down.
June 16, 2013, 07:41:28 AM
If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.
The bounces were smaller every time, indicating that the market will not (yet) want to go up. This means it will go down. If it can't go up here it will go down.
This will happen:
-> a little bit more bouncing around here at these levels
-> decisive move below $100, breaking previous lows (huge triangle break)
-> fear and panic
-> $50 -> bounce -> a few weeks of hope -> down again
-> $50 -> smaller bounce -> a few days of (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $50 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> stops triggered and n00bs panic
-> $30 -> strong bounce -> a few months hope -> down agan
-> $30 -> smaller bounce - a few weeks (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $30 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> more stops and more panic
-> $20
-> me converting most of my Fiat to BTC
-> price goes up again, third bubble slowly beginning.
June 16, 2013, 07:37:33 AM
All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??
I started selling my bitcoins today, so I likely confirm as a contrarian indicator and you should buy. I still have 97% of the amount left, but now also some dollarz that I can use for paying the bills.
June 16, 2013, 07:18:05 AM
If you are still bearish, don't be, 100 USD is the bottom.
I do not see any bears anymore, to me the forum posters wih the bearish remarks are just some people hoping to get in at a lower price-point, because they are actually bullish!
If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.
Even when some big coin dumps put serious downward price pressure on the bitcoin value, the price rebounded to above 100 very fast.
However; it is also clear that there is not enough confidence yet to have the price moving up again.
We scraped 160 and we touched 140, but that is it.
I believe it is now safe to say that the new bottom is 100 USD and in the mid to long run the value will increase again.
In the short run there might still be a few big coin sell off's to below 100 USD, which you can profit from if you dare to, but the price will not stay below 100 USD for long anymore.
When the price will start moving up again is difficult to say, might be a few months, might also take until next year. We will probably have to wait for some positive events to happen: e.g. new and improved exchanges, transparent regulation, big venture capital introducing new business opportunities, bitcoin acceptance by big online retailers (probably not soon), who knows the bitcoin ATM rolling out worldwide, or just some general global positive media attention.
But it will go up.
up uP UP
I do not see any bears anymore, to me the forum posters wih the bearish remarks are just some people hoping to get in at a lower price-point, because they are actually bullish!
If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.
Even when some big coin dumps put serious downward price pressure on the bitcoin value, the price rebounded to above 100 very fast.
However; it is also clear that there is not enough confidence yet to have the price moving up again.
We scraped 160 and we touched 140, but that is it.
I believe it is now safe to say that the new bottom is 100 USD and in the mid to long run the value will increase again.
In the short run there might still be a few big coin sell off's to below 100 USD, which you can profit from if you dare to, but the price will not stay below 100 USD for long anymore.
When the price will start moving up again is difficult to say, might be a few months, might also take until next year. We will probably have to wait for some positive events to happen: e.g. new and improved exchanges, transparent regulation, big venture capital introducing new business opportunities, bitcoin acceptance by big online retailers (probably not soon), who knows the bitcoin ATM rolling out worldwide, or just some general global positive media attention.
But it will go up.
up uP UP
I'm a long term BULL with BTC but the short to mid term has changed. Services, places to purchase goods with BTC, etc. are minimal these days. I know that Bitpay has added a lot of customers but a large % of their income is just from BFL using their service, that can change. It is real, but it is also a part of the Bitcoin ecosystem and we have to see it as such but not discount it too much either. For the price to really have value at this level we need something of substance to take place. We can argue just as a store of Value BTC is great. But the current price seems to be looking to a future justification. That isn't all bad, as the economy doesn't look good, but I'm talking about just BTC now. If the stock market takes a crash, yes, we jump back into BTC as a store of value before others start.
No where in your post did you give any real evidence of a 100 being a bottom. The chart doesn't look good (many traders as well as subscription services have said this), rallies being sold off into time and time again doesn't look good. The big buy that happened last weekend to stop the price from dropping was a terrible business decision as the slippage was huge.
I do admit, as in my post above, that the market dept is looking great but it also has been manipulated time and time again. And, sold into as already stated.
With all due respect, give some facts (fundamentals with numbers) for your perspective. The bearishness around here lately does scare me, almost a contrarian indicator, but it is also based on a lot of facts.
June 16, 2013, 07:00:13 AM
June 16, 2013, 06:53:58 AM
I wasn't online at the time to see this happen
It looks like someone put up a huge wall and it was eaten immediately.
This must be wrong.
Here are the volumes for M15 candles for today, all times in UTC as logged by goxtool (comes directly from MtGox)
Code:
2013-06-16 12:51:38,343:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:00:00 volume: 101
2013-06-16 12:51:38,344:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:15:00 volume: 96
2013-06-16 12:51:38,345:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:30:00 volume: 151
2013-06-16 12:51:38,346:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:45:00 volume: 108
2013-06-16 12:51:38,347:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:00:00 volume: 50
2013-06-16 12:51:38,348:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:15:00 volume: 40
2013-06-16 12:51:38,350:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:30:00 volume: 30
2013-06-16 12:51:38,351:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:45:00 volume: 26
2013-06-16 12:51:38,352:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:00:00 volume: 62
2013-06-16 12:51:38,353:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:15:00 volume: 110
2013-06-16 12:51:38,354:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:30:00 volume: 35
2013-06-16 12:51:38,355:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:45:00 volume: 16
2013-06-16 12:51:38,356:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:00:00 volume: 24
2013-06-16 12:51:38,366:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:15:00 volume: 36
2013-06-16 12:51:38,371:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:30:00 volume: 450
2013-06-16 12:51:38,378:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:45:00 volume: 396
2013-06-16 12:51:38,385:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:00:00 volume: 171
2013-06-16 12:51:38,386:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:15:00 volume: 3
2013-06-16 12:51:38,390:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:30:00 volume: 15
2013-06-16 12:51:38,391:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:45:00 volume: 39
2013-06-16 12:51:38,393:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:00:00 volume: 14
2013-06-16 12:51:38,396:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:15:00 volume: 57
2013-06-16 12:51:38,405:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:30:00 volume: 209
2013-06-16 12:51:38,406:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:45:00 volume: 90
2013-06-16 12:51:38,407:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:00:00 volume: 33
2013-06-16 12:51:38,408:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:15:00 volume: 6
2013-06-16 12:51:38,417:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:30:00 volume: 73
2013-06-16 12:51:38,418:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:45:00 volume: 200
2013-06-16 12:51:38,419:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:00:00 volume: 60
2013-06-16 12:51:38,420:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:15:00 volume: 166
2013-06-16 12:51:38,422:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:30:00 volume: 1
2013-06-16 12:51:38,426:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:45:00 volume: 583
2013-06-16 12:51:38,427:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:00:00 volume: 155
2013-06-16 12:51:38,430:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:15:00 volume: 19
2013-06-16 12:51:38,431:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:30:00 volume: 55
2013-06-16 12:51:38,432:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:45:00 volume: 75
2013-06-16 12:51:38,434:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:00:00 volume: 6
2013-06-16 12:51:38,435:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:15:00 volume: 40
2013-06-16 12:51:38,436:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:30:00 volume: 20
2013-06-16 12:51:38,437:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:45:00 volume: 63
2013-06-16 12:51:38,438:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:00:00 volume: 50
2013-06-16 12:51:38,439:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:15:00 volume: 69
2013-06-16 12:51:38,440:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:30:00 volume: 22
2013-06-16 12:51:38,344:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:15:00 volume: 96
2013-06-16 12:51:38,345:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:30:00 volume: 151
2013-06-16 12:51:38,346:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:45:00 volume: 108
2013-06-16 12:51:38,347:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:00:00 volume: 50
2013-06-16 12:51:38,348:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:15:00 volume: 40
2013-06-16 12:51:38,350:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:30:00 volume: 30
2013-06-16 12:51:38,351:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:45:00 volume: 26
2013-06-16 12:51:38,352:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:00:00 volume: 62
2013-06-16 12:51:38,353:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:15:00 volume: 110
2013-06-16 12:51:38,354:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:30:00 volume: 35
2013-06-16 12:51:38,355:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:45:00 volume: 16
2013-06-16 12:51:38,356:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:00:00 volume: 24
2013-06-16 12:51:38,366:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:15:00 volume: 36
2013-06-16 12:51:38,371:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:30:00 volume: 450
2013-06-16 12:51:38,378:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:45:00 volume: 396
2013-06-16 12:51:38,385:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:00:00 volume: 171
2013-06-16 12:51:38,386:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:15:00 volume: 3
2013-06-16 12:51:38,390:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:30:00 volume: 15
2013-06-16 12:51:38,391:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:45:00 volume: 39
2013-06-16 12:51:38,393:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:00:00 volume: 14
2013-06-16 12:51:38,396:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:15:00 volume: 57
2013-06-16 12:51:38,405:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:30:00 volume: 209
2013-06-16 12:51:38,406:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:45:00 volume: 90
2013-06-16 12:51:38,407:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:00:00 volume: 33
2013-06-16 12:51:38,408:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:15:00 volume: 6
2013-06-16 12:51:38,417:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:30:00 volume: 73
2013-06-16 12:51:38,418:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:45:00 volume: 200
2013-06-16 12:51:38,419:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:00:00 volume: 60
2013-06-16 12:51:38,420:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:15:00 volume: 166
2013-06-16 12:51:38,422:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:30:00 volume: 1
2013-06-16 12:51:38,426:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:45:00 volume: 583
2013-06-16 12:51:38,427:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:00:00 volume: 155
2013-06-16 12:51:38,430:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:15:00 volume: 19
2013-06-16 12:51:38,431:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:30:00 volume: 55
2013-06-16 12:51:38,432:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:45:00 volume: 75
2013-06-16 12:51:38,434:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:00:00 volume: 6
2013-06-16 12:51:38,435:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:15:00 volume: 40
2013-06-16 12:51:38,436:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:30:00 volume: 20
2013-06-16 12:51:38,437:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:45:00 volume: 63
2013-06-16 12:51:38,438:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:00:00 volume: 50
2013-06-16 12:51:38,439:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:15:00 volume: 69
2013-06-16 12:51:38,440:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:30:00 volume: 22
June 16, 2013, 06:50:08 AM
[...]
All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??
All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??
All in. Nothing better!
June 16, 2013, 06:30:13 AM
The flakishness of this thread is a long-term bullish sign. In the short term, except all reason to disappear from here, and then a stealth rise to commence.
Everybody will be in denial until we cross $0.500/mBTC. I think we may spend 1-2 more months in $0.1 and then the rise would last for about 2 months. In October we will hit $5 and Christmas we'll see maximum $50, but may as well consolidate in $2.
So no $300 before Christmas, folks. Sell all your bitcoins (to me)! 2013 will be remembered as a good year (we are already up +700% and the year is only half over) but not everything will happen this year, as I predicted previously.
The key is to increase the actual usage. It is currently increasing but not virally. The viral application will see very fast exchange rate growth also. Currently (as you can see) everybody in the thread has just gone to work, and that is more sensible to do now, compared to watching USDBTC.
Everybody will be in denial until we cross $0.500/mBTC. I think we may spend 1-2 more months in $0.1 and then the rise would last for about 2 months. In October we will hit $5 and Christmas we'll see maximum $50, but may as well consolidate in $2.
So no $300 before Christmas, folks. Sell all your bitcoins (to me)! 2013 will be remembered as a good year (we are already up +700% and the year is only half over) but not everything will happen this year, as I predicted previously.
The key is to increase the actual usage. It is currently increasing but not virally. The viral application will see very fast exchange rate growth also. Currently (as you can see) everybody in the thread has just gone to work, and that is more sensible to do now, compared to watching USDBTC.
What do you think of the price right now? Any expected low?
All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??
June 16, 2013, 06:22:17 AM
That vol spike on CM is completely bogus. It has done this before.
I was online at the time and a few hundred (edit: 1400) went through on bitcoinwisdom, but not thousands like CM has.
I was online at the time and a few hundred (edit: 1400) went through on bitcoinwisdom, but not thousands like CM has.
Someone else told me that on IRC - I thought I'd confirm it here.
That's very strange, how could this happen ?
June 16, 2013, 06:19:23 AM
That vol spike on CM is completely bogus. It has done this before.
I was online at the time and a few hundred went through on bitcoinwisdom, but not thousands like CM has.
agree.; i double checked with other tools .; this is bogus I was online at the time and a few hundred went through on bitcoinwisdom, but not thousands like CM has.
June 16, 2013, 06:18:49 AM
last realy big selloff had also a nice bidwall .. got eaten like candy..
Yes, so "they" are basically selling into any rally and it is not showing up (of course) in the market depth...
also.. check this..
thats some big guys pushing up bid volume .. in way to short time,
i've seen this happen with wazilla 8k coin too.. the straight line up or down..
it would be nice if we can see when and where this bid wall hass been set.
it all feels like a bull trap again.
i'm 60fiat/40btc
i might be wrong of course
this is still bitcoin. 
June 16, 2013, 06:13:49 AM
That vol spike on CM is completely bogus. It has done this before.
I was online at the time and a few hundred (edit: 1427 that hour) went through on bitcoinwisdom, but not thousands like CM has.
I was online at the time and a few hundred (edit: 1427 that hour) went through on bitcoinwisdom, but not thousands like CM has.
June 16, 2013, 06:11:39 AM
last realy big selloff had also a nice bidwall .. got eaten like candy..
Yes, so "they" are basically selling into any rally and it is not showing up (of course) in the market depth...
Something like this :
Clark Moody is showing about 9000 BTC traded within a $1 price range today in a very short period of time.
I've shown it on the 1H chart as it was about hours ago now.
I wasn't online at the time to see this happen
It looks like someone put up a huge wall and it was eaten immediately.
June 16, 2013, 06:02:56 AM
last realy big selloff had also a nice bidwall .. got eaten like candy..
Yes, so "they" are basically selling into any rally and it is not showing up (of course) in the market depth...
June 16, 2013, 06:00:29 AM
June 16, 2013, 05:53:33 AM
last realy big selloff had also a nice bidwall .. got eaten like candy..
June 16, 2013, 05:43:29 AM
so ive been watching the bigger guys for a while..
a) reloading for big dumps.
b) reloading for big uptrend rallies..
since i think we didnt hit real bottom yet.. (70-80) .. i think it will be a)
then again.. i made many trade mistakes already..
still 10x investment before bubble though but still.. made a lot of mistakes in this downtrend
a) reloading for big dumps.
b) reloading for big uptrend rallies..
since i think we didnt hit real bottom yet.. (70-80) .. i think it will be a)
then again.. i made many trade mistakes already..
still 10x investment before bubble though
but still.. made a lot of mistakes in this downtrend I've been trying to connect the market depth with what you mention, related to, "a)" above.
Look at the market depth below. The buy orders are outnumbering the sell orders by roughly 2:1, but what it doesn't show is the number of market sells coming in and just dumping shares, eating through the larger bid supply. (I don't think the market depth was this positive even a week ago?) We don't see as many of those on the ask side. Any ideas on this guys? I mean could the bid side be manipulators just waiting to pull their orders or are the big sellers just not showing their hand in the market depth?
June 16, 2013, 05:03:17 AM
what do you mean by "trade", if you're talking about daytrading then i'm 100% agree that it's way too risky and hardly predictable on bitcoin but im actually doing 3-4 trades/month based on daily chart and it works correctly.
Yes, I meant day trading.
Have you tried the bots?
No, you? always wondered how much you can win with this thing..
Or lose. I'll setup some play money to see how they work, but the market going sideways is not a good time for bots IMO. It needs a bit more trending so you don't make too many useless trades. (and needs planning for the manipulations)
June 16, 2013, 05:00:35 AM
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