Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32987. (Read 26611111 times)
July 10, 2013, 07:13:37 AM
I don't understand that sell off. I saw the price bottomed at 75 and then immediately went back to 77
July 10, 2013, 07:06:22 AM
And still we have a 2.5k "bomb" at 79 and almost 9k at 80 
July 10, 2013, 07:03:16 AM
July 10, 2013, 07:01:15 AM
July 10, 2013, 06:59:30 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
This one looks like a butt in the process of being hurt by lots of 'whale fire'. Chimes with reality.
July 10, 2013, 06:55:02 AM
it's funny 
I have submitted on the the tradingview .. :
and 2 minutes after that: Someone push the button "SELL 3k" ...
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zig30-minztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g25zxzi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gMFIzv
I have submitted on the the tradingview .. :
and 2 minutes after that: Someone push the button "SELL 3k" ...
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zig30-minztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g25zxzi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gMFIzv
July 10, 2013, 06:54:41 AM
3k BTC selloff ! Wow !
July 10, 2013, 06:50:04 AM
Big dump - down 
July 10, 2013, 06:45:00 AM
up
July 10, 2013, 06:44:43 AM
down
July 10, 2013, 06:30:37 AM
Yes, it's a very interesting situation on the market.
I assumed the bounce afterm last lows and up movement to 82 - 84. But, we have strong resistance at 80 (orange), despite the market looks bullish short term.
It's difficult to guess only one way for further development.
I assumed the bounce afterm last lows and up movement to 82 - 84. But, we have strong resistance at 80 (orange), despite the market looks bullish short term.
It's difficult to guess only one way for further development.
- 1. If we overcome resistance we might move up. (to 84 - 90)
- 2. Otherwise I see far more possible side movement between resitance and support ($ 74 - 80 ) so far. (by me 60:40)
- 3. And until we get over down the line (red), we can step be even lower, bellow $ 65. (still 70:30, but after several days)
Edit: When we argue the potential of overcoming resistance, we must answer the question:
Is more likely a large purchase (pump) or sale (dump) in 80 - 85 area ?
EDIT2: It seems that the wall 80 is slightly decreasing, but it seems that it's that part of the wall outruns to 79
July 10, 2013, 06:01:06 AM
July 10, 2013, 05:55:19 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
This isn't so much "my" opinion as it is years of TA analysis. A negative divergence of down volume on up price is one of the more reliable divergences in TA (though none are fool proof.)
Regarding your question, you are missing the important variable in the formular - Volume. If price wanted to move up it would buy, the coins are there, wall or not. Nothing prevents anyone from buying.
Looking at the recent history in the chart (and it's consistency of a down move in price after a negative volume divergence), we should not only correct, but correct hard as this divergence is a bit longer (thus far).
The unknown variable, per say, is that we are oversold. RSI is heading higher while the price remains low, one could argue that is a good divergence. (Though not very strong, the price is moving up.)
IAS
You may not know it, but your (subconscious) biases are showing through in your TA. Why select some volume movements as "flat" (when they are going marginally up), but "down" (when they are going marginally down). See, I can draw lines to illustrate a point too:
Of course, my lines and arrows prove nothing -- other than showing that your lines and arrows prove nothing too.
In terms of volume -- in the short term, people are waiting and seeing right now. If the wall at 80 comes down, there will be a bigger buy-in, and the next volume bar will be bigger. The longer it takes, the bigger it will potentially be. Things are a bit confuised right now as the market has been put off by dumpers/manipulators all along.
I don't understand your point exactly if you are not pointing out divergences with price direction changes? That is the issue here.
The marks you made were typical. Mine were atypical.
Clearly we each have a "fingerprint" in our analysis.
July 10, 2013, 05:28:54 AM
Yes, it's a very interesting situation on the market.
I assumed the bounce afterm last lows and up movement to 82 - 84. But, we have strong resistance at 80 (orange), despite the market looks bullish short term.
It's difficult to guess only one way for further development.
PS: TA can tell us a probability of different options, it's not a divination of what is sure to happen tomorrow.
I assumed the bounce afterm last lows and up movement to 82 - 84. But, we have strong resistance at 80 (orange), despite the market looks bullish short term.
It's difficult to guess only one way for further development.
- 1. If we overcome resistance we might move up. (to 84 - 90)
- 2. Otherwise I see far more possible side movement between resitance and support ($ 74 - 80 ) so far. (by me 60:40)
- 3. And until we get over down the line (red), we can step be even lower, bellow $ 65. (still 70:30, but after several days)
PS: TA can tell us a probability of different options, it's not a divination of what is sure to happen tomorrow.
July 10, 2013, 05:25:16 AM
Wall at 80 won't come down. It's been directly tested once and approached two other times. If someone eats it we might see $85, otherwise we'll stagnate here until dumps. If we see $85/90 we'll still see dumps.
July 10, 2013, 05:17:04 AM
Can't see 60s today.. 
July 10, 2013, 05:08:30 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
This isn't so much "my" opinion as it is years of TA analysis. A negative divergence of down volume on up price is one of the more reliable divergences in TA (though none are fool proof.)
Regarding your question, you are missing the important variable in the formular - Volume. If price wanted to move up it would buy, the coins are there, wall or not. Nothing prevents anyone from buying.
Looking at the recent history in the chart (and it's consistency of a down move in price after a negative volume divergence), we should not only correct, but correct hard as this divergence is a bit longer (thus far).
The unknown variable, per say, is that we are oversold. RSI is heading higher while the price remains low, one could argue that is a good divergence. (Though not very strong, the price is moving up.)
IAS
You may not know it, but your (subconscious) biases are showing through in your TA. Why select some volume movements as "flat" (when they are going marginally up), but "down" (when they are going marginally down). See, I can draw lines to illustrate a point too:
Of course, my lines and arrows prove nothing -- other than showing that your lines and arrows prove nothing too.
In terms of volume -- in the short term, people are waiting and seeing right now. If the wall at 80 comes down, there will be a bigger buy-in, and the next volume bar will be bigger. The longer it takes, the bigger it will potentially be. Things are a bit confuised right now as the market has been put off by dumpers/manipulators all along.
Volume bars and candles should line up perfectly. But you have some truth in your post still, there's few movements with so little difference in volume bars/candles that it's not significant (more like flat).
July 10, 2013, 04:56:27 AM
The bounce isn't over yet, I can feel the tension building and I think another attack on 80 is going to happen very soon. Bitstamp's orderbook looks bullish as hell.
July 10, 2013, 04:42:01 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
This isn't so much "my" opinion as it is years of TA analysis. A negative divergence of down volume on up price is one of the more reliable divergences in TA (though none are fool proof.)
Regarding your question, you are missing the important variable in the formular - Volume. If price wanted to move up it would buy, the coins are there, wall or not. Nothing prevents anyone from buying.
Looking at the recent history in the chart (and it's consistency of a down move in price after a negative volume divergence), we should not only correct, but correct hard as this divergence is a bit longer (thus far).
The unknown variable, per say, is that we are oversold. RSI is heading higher while the price remains low, one could argue that is a good divergence. (Though not very strong, the price is moving up.)
IAS
You may not know it, but your (subconscious) biases are showing through in your TA. Why select some volume movements as "flat" (when they are going marginally up), but "down" (when they are going marginally down). See, I can draw lines to illustrate a point too:
Of course, my lines and arrows prove nothing -- other than showing that your lines and arrows prove nothing too.
In terms of volume -- in the short term, people are waiting and seeing right now. If the wall at 80 comes down, there will be a bigger buy-in, and the next volume bar will be bigger. The longer it takes, the bigger it will potentially be. Things are a bit confuised right now as the market has been put off by dumpers/manipulators all along.
July 10, 2013, 04:28:56 AM
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?
Blinkered much?
This isn't so much "my" opinion as it is years of TA analysis. A negative divergence of down volume on up price is one of the more reliable divergences in TA (though none are fool proof.)
Regarding your question, you are missing the important variable in the formular - Volume. If price wanted to move up it would buy, the coins are there, wall or not. Nothing prevents anyone from buying.
Looking at the recent history in the chart (and it's consistency of a down move in price after a negative volume divergence), we should not only correct, but correct hard as this divergence is a bit longer (thus far).
The unknown variable, per say, is that we are oversold. RSI is heading higher while the price remains low, one could argue that is a good divergence. (Though not very strong, the price is moving up.)
IAS
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