I look at you (Rampion), Frozenlock, Blitz, etc. and know "I don't know as much as you guys". But that is good. It is "wise" to know that you don't know. It is ignorant to say you know when you don't know. And I'm not trying to pull a "known known" Rumsfeld, but there is some truth in the false if you pay attention.
You know just as much as any one of those people you have named. Don't be fooled into thinking they know and see things you don't, they may have more trading experience than you have but bitcoin is quite a unique market where we all are learners. The bitcoin market is also so small and so many things can influence the price both ways that nobody really can predict what's going to happen. Yeah the chart looks bearish right now, but charts always look bearish until it hits a bottom and the trend reverses. And even then the reversal only becomes apparent weeks or even months after we have hit the bottom, and bears probably will still be convinced it's all a bull trap until we go way higher than 150. I also wonder what would have happened if USD withdrawals never had been locked at MtGox.
The bid side and the entire market depth was actually building up quite nicely again up to that point and things were starting to look better. MtGox becomes less and less liquid after each of these issues pops up and since most big holders don't like an illiquid market and have no real alternative it becomes kind of like a vicious cycle. I guess that's good for the decentralization of exchanges but it's certainly not good for the price.
You bring up a good point and it has crossed my mind, actually a few good points, but focussing on the bold. I saw what you are talking about but the thing that still worried me was the sells. They were large and not always showing up in the books. I got the strong feeling that if things started to run up, then they would hold off on the sells, only to unload later.
I'm curious what others think about this in general. (large size of sells relative to buys) I've mentioned it a few times and have yet to get a reply - Watching the sells closely shows me they are generally larger than the buys, and quite noticeably so. To me, that means we are probably going down still. It wasn't like that too long ago. I started to notice it (though perhaps it was happening before) when we were rounding off that $130 level). I really wanted to sell, but my emotion got in the way. It's all monopoly money in the end, so it doesn't bug me much.
I really wonder if there is a way to investigate sell sizes. Thus far I find no technical indicator that looks at that specifically.
Thanks for the words, I guess we are really all seeing things from our own perspective and each perspective is valuable. Like I said, I try to look at all forms of data, no matter how "out there". Funnily enough, the Bitcoin astrology chart was having some heavy transits happen and I didn't like it. Also summer in general (astrologically) is not a good time for BTC due to some of the transits. But winter into spring things change. Yeah, I know, it sounds crazy, but like I said, I look at all data. (I still remember Krishnamurti saying "See the truth in the false.") I don't give it more weight than anything else but I look at it. If it makes you all feel better, I only give it like 10%-20% weight or so and only at certain times. But when things look really ugly, I pay special note.