Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32985. (Read 26498244 times)

Pretty much agree with your analysis, which I think that can be summed up by saying that after a speculative mania phase the market has to correct and adjust to a supply+demand reality that got distorted during a hype cycle.

I also enjoyed this particular quote, as I have the same feeling:


And right now, another media hype is nowhere to be seen. IMO, before that we really need an improvement in the infrastructure. During the next media hype, Gox cannot be anymore the leading exchange. Hence, as it happened in 2011, the end of the "gold rush" in mining, represented by a decline in the network hash rate, could be indeed a perfect moment to buy back in.

by the way 91-93 will not be sorry too.
I wrote that is that we can bounce. But it is above 100 "infinitely" Asks (mainly on the Bitstamp) is always between 93-97 (MtGox) little space "to play".

I'm really still learning to go with what I "feel" deeply and what the chart is sort of telling me. I'm not ready to jump in. I totally believe you though. It is a skill or art to know this (short term vs long trading and such). Way back when (internet bubble) I could look at a candlestick chart and just interpret sooo much from it. BTC doesn't speak to me like that. I don't trust what I'm seeing in just the chart alone. The market data adds a layer (and yet it is manipulated often) that we/I use.

Again, watch the sizes of the sells. I'm sure they will adjust them to hide them better but right now and for the last few weeks, the sell sizes have been noticeably bigger than the buys. I get the feeling like someone is playing us. So, no matter what the chart looks like, I don't trust it - go deeper. (BTW - If anyone knows of some way to monitor the size of sells relative to buys, I'm all ears.) The timestamp is key here also. (e.g. - You can see one seller put out a sale via a program and try to break it down, but it is all the same to the second, quite obvious. Nothing before or after it, stands out.)

Something a great great friend and teacher taught me:
Everything is data. Don't try to interpret the data. Just observe the data. No matter what you are talking about. So, with BTC, look at the charts, look at the posts, look at the USD, economy, banking, even esoteric things, etc. It is all data - don't judge it. Don't manipulate or organize the data. Just observe it. (Watching the matrix may help  )That is hard as we are conditioned unconsciously to see things a certain way. Anyway, as I said before, if you can separate some of the more emotional parts (they are data - not wrong or right - you have to find out how true), from the mind, intuition, etc and develop an overall picture... Well, that is pretty powerful. But if you really get there, I don't think you (I), would be here. eheheh But you can sort of taste it as it comes your way. Grasshopper goes...

For the bulls who have been criticising me, here's a serious post with fundamental analysis I made over two months ago on the bearish outlook (price was in the 130s at the time): https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1957530

Maybe that will help you guys understand my way of thinking.

I hope we're not seeing the nascent "dead cat bouncing down the stairs" pattern.  Those are the worst

Well, long term Bitcoin looks extremely exciting. This is why we are throwing money at it while we enjoy it so much, don't we?

Me thinks this is going to start getting exciting again very soon... once the difficulty skyrockets from everybody jumping on board ASIC mining, combined with the hardcore investors holding through the drop to $50, plus all the new investors that will surely follow... bitcoins will start to become MUCH more scarce than ever before.

I have to admit that I have a couple of hundred k's of Cripple's, just as a hedge against my main investment, which is BTC. Also because I really needed to touch it with my hands, extending trust and buying a little "just in case", because while I profoundly dislike the concept I acknowledge its potential as a distributed, p2p version of the actual, flawed but dominant, debt-based financial system. In other words, I hope it fails, but I won't be extremely surprised if it didn't.

Back to current price, I missed the last bounce. I had my highest bid at $91ish, didn't got filled, so I pulled it to try to play the future bounce at $88ish. Dangerous games, but you gotta have fun

Just to throw a little bit of a monkey in the wrench (sorry, I'm in Germany and have lost some of my English)... Check out this guys Twitter - https://twitter.com/SirBitsALot
I feel he is on to something.

I look at you (Rampion), Frozenlock, Blitz, etc. and know "I don't know as much as you guys". But that is good. It is "wise" to know that you don't know. It is ignorant to say you know when you don't know. And I'm not trying to pull a "known known" Rumsfeld, but there is some truth in the false if you pay attention.

One of the wisest statements that I ever read and it stays with me, I'm paraphrasing but J. Krishnamurti said something like "Be careful of the man that says he knows."
I don't know but I'm learning. And when you (you know who you are  ) come across others that clearly know more than yourself,... LISTEN, LEARN and integrate.
That is what I'm learning to do...

Peace out and rock on guys,
Bitcoin Bear but not Bitcoin Blind,
Watching,
IAS

ps - Thanks for the kind words Rampion. Cool that we are all learning together...
phoenix1 - Thanks also for your kind words, but I really don't know as much as those other guys (I think). Perhaps I'm less cryptic and sarcastic than Frozenlock though  . But I can help in my narrow scope of Candle analysis and intuition (if I care to listen past my enthusiasm - tough one). Dare I say a bit of a mirror going on, if you know what I mean (and I know you do!) 

pss - and after all that, this "thing" can turn on a dime and leave us behind. There are certain unknowns that I know I know but am not quite knowing, but feel... Be careful...

$68 (I had a vision) ... but then spike to $300 (not many bought at bottom, not enough time)

1) It's actually possible through Bitcoin's inflation of I believe 12.5% per annum.

2) Some people never cared about Bitcoin and bought into multimillion dollar positions on the way up to 266 just to gamble. They're leaving this market, and the hardcore crowd remains.

However, I myself still do very well.

I just watched it last fall after a couple of hours (about 7) before we returned over 100

Today (so far) looks even weaker with demand.

You can't all end up with more coins, for any person that ends up with more coins there is someone else who ends up with less. You may be on the lucky side, but I prefer not to dance around the chairs hoping I'm able to sit down in time when the music stops. I will just keep sitting firmly on my chair and gather as many chairs as I can while the rest keeps on dancing nervously around me waiting for the music to stop.

Thank you for your word IAS, I also enjoy your posts and I love your enthusiasm, being a Bitcoin enthusiast myself. It comforts me that you find yourself agreeing with me in some occasions, half of the time I'm just having fun and I realize i border line the trolling, but at the end of the day I'm utterly sincere, I enjoy being very open about my feelings while I learn with the analysis and views of the other members in here.

There's some people posting that has a tremendous experience in the market, like Blitz, Adam or Frozenlock (and many more), and while everybody has a different approach, there's a lot to be learnt and enjoyed in the mix of cynical humor, trolling and serious statements that constitute this thread.

Coming back to the market, as you say its just stupid to fight against the trend, we are all Bitcoin bulls and that's why we are investing money, time and passion in it, so lets face the facts and play our cards so we end up with more beloved coins and possibly some fiat profits too

I won't chance it. Watching the tape, the sells are just too big relative to the buys. It seems like we have regular guys buying and some really heavy sellers selling. I won't risk that. Yes, technically, I say bounce, but watching the tape, they are not hiding the sell sizes very well. It seems almost orchestrated.

I'll let the market calm down a bit before re-entering...

XRP has how many BILLIONS of shares? I don't care, but I am not going to invest in a debt based currency. Been there and done that, all of us have. XRP's benefit, from what I have read and heard, is to help reduce attacks on the network by making it costly. That sounds good, but when fiat money is endless I'm not so sure. When BTC guys can't quite grasp XRP and when most people can't quite grasp BTC, I think it's just safe to stay away from XRP. Excuse me for being a Debby Downer but something about XRP gives me a bad feeling. I for sure would use the network to get in and out of BTC, but it SHOULD NOT BE an investment. That is not it's purpose and if they make it that, question it thoroughly...

A weak bounce and a lot of willing sellers at $95. This isn't looking good.

I just wanted to edit my last post.

As is well seen that after 93 95-96, but it's not enough to 98-100 so far

But it looks very weak..