Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33040. (Read 26634305 times)
July 06, 2013, 06:31:08 AM
I'm with you KoziTwo, your strategy is sound and a winner you, its just that its more An investment strategy than a speculative trading one.
July 06, 2013, 06:11:20 AM
What i dont understand is the people that are holding ,say 10k B that thay are not cashing out now ?
Even if thay think that we will stay at this price.
Becuse if thay dump 10k now the price will fall realy hard and only profit would thay make.
And if you have over 10k you are probebly a person that are not stupid, i think its just crazy that we dont se a faster and bigger drop . And becuse of that we maby wont hit as hard that we think ,but i will hold
My cash steady for som time now .
Because if you hold 10k BTC and sell, you have to pay 3000 BTC in capital gains to the state (assuming you bought cheap). The price would have to drop a lot for you to even break even. Plus, some people are able to look more than a few weeks/months into the future and willing to hold for years. Even if thay think that we will stay at this price.
Becuse if thay dump 10k now the price will fall realy hard and only profit would thay make.
And if you have over 10k you are probebly a person that are not stupid, i think its just crazy that we dont se a faster and bigger drop . And becuse of that we maby wont hit as hard that we think ,but i will hold
My cash steady for som time now .
July 06, 2013, 06:07:48 AM
Are you happy to pay ~30% of your profit, effectively erasing all otherwise would-be profits made from a price decrease in the range of $100 to ~$77?
Capital gain taxes are horrible, and I'm sorry for anyone being extorted that way. That being said, avoiding taxes can be a very bad investment advisor. One can easily lose a lot more in an investment than in taxes. This is again proven with bitcoin since the bubble popped. Anyone that locked in profits between $250 and $130 is ahead over holding, even after paying 30% taxes on the gains. Don't let the government interfere with your common sense to sell high and buy low. Easier said then done, I admit.
I don't "worry" a whole lot about the underlying value, I'm holding roughly 95% in bitcoin and 5% in fiat and I sleep like a baby, and the only reason I hold any fiat at all is to buy back cheaper and increase the amount of bitcoins I own.
How can you buy considerably more btc when you only have 5% cash and 95% in btc?
This can only mean your capital is very small compared to your income. A situation I assume you want to change however going all in, even at a bottom, is very poor risk management, so chances are low that you will hold on to any capital you succeed in building up, as all-in strategies lead to ruin, sooner or later.
I understand that if your capital is low compared to your income, and your income is secure, that you are able to handle the risk to invest all your capital in bitcoin. However, if successful a switch of strategy is crucial in my opinion. Considering you have bought lots of coins during the depression of 2011, you have already 50 folded your invested capital around the recent top, but still you have not switched to an even somewhat more balanced strategy. This does not look healthy to me. I could be wrong, I'm judging based on very little information I have from your situation.
Well there you go, it really is that simple, more BTC is what it's all about, just like I said. USD is a means to an end.
I strongly disagree. In investment it's not about how many bitcoins, gold ounces, real estate, or stocks that you are able to accumulate. It's about how much value/purchasing power you are able to build up.
You are thinking like a gold bug, or real estate bug, or stock bug. Sooner or later a decades long bear market arrives and they lose most of their purchasing power. At least they can say that it will go up again sometime in the future (though since it can take decades they might not be there anymore to experience it). With bitcoin nothing of the kind! Hard to imagine now but bad news can come in strides and a combination of development disagreements, outlawing by some major government and competition can seal the faith of bitcoin. So being a bitcoin bug is even more irrational as you cannot say with any historical certainty that if will come back sooner or later.
I'm sorry for being so confrontational but honestly I'm stunned to see this typical bitcoin bull talk still expressed today after the market proved you so wrong. Either I am missing something here or you are.
1. I'm a long term investor, I don't mind holding for years. I don't trade much, most traders lose in the long run.
2. I don't want to sell more than the maximum I can before being eligible for capital gains, something I refuse to pay.
What's stupid about buying bitcoin with the intention of holding for 5-10 years? The market hasn't proved me wrong at all, it's just as expected. Up and down up and down, you're clearing missing something here, you think like a trader, not investor.
July 06, 2013, 05:58:24 AM
If it's similar to last time, we're only about 2/3 of the way through the bubble deflation (duration wise), whereas a price of $50 seems pretty near at the moment.
By this time in 2011, the bubble had deflated by about 70% (of peak day price), this year we're at about 73% at this stage. We're pretty much on track.
Oh, and of course it lost over 90% of its peak price in the end.
So, if the last bubble is anything to go on, $50 seems pretty optimistic as a bottom...
By this time in 2011, the bubble had deflated by about 70% (of peak day price), this year we're at about 73% at this stage. We're pretty much on track.
Oh, and of course it lost over 90% of its peak price in the end.
So, if the last bubble is anything to go on, $50 seems pretty optimistic as a bottom...
July 06, 2013, 05:41:17 AM
Why is everyone wanting in at 50 ? Either 2 things :
if 50 indeed holds it's not going to the low 50s but it will settle higher. So what, are you going to panic buy in the 60s when you realize you bids for cheap coins didn't get filled ?
if it falls (more likely), this will be an epic selloff as all those who bought have an "oh crap" moment, and there's not much support until 30 where the same story applies.
In either case, 50 won't be the bottom.
if 50 indeed holds it's not going to the low 50s but it will settle higher. So what, are you going to panic buy in the 60s when you realize you bids for cheap coins didn't get filled ?
if it falls (more likely), this will be an epic selloff as all those who bought have an "oh crap" moment, and there's not much support until 30 where the same story applies.
In either case, 50 won't be the bottom.
But it will be a bounce
July 06, 2013, 05:24:56 AM
Why is everyone wanting in at 50 ? Either 2 things :
if 50 indeed holds it's not going to the low 50s but it will settle higher. So what, are you going to panic buy in the 60s when you realize you bids for cheap coins didn't get filled ?
if it falls (more likely), this will be an epic selloff as all those who bought have an "oh crap" moment, and there's not much support until 30 where the same story applies.
In either case, 50 won't be the bottom.
if 50 indeed holds it's not going to the low 50s but it will settle higher. So what, are you going to panic buy in the 60s when you realize you bids for cheap coins didn't get filled ?
if it falls (more likely), this will be an epic selloff as all those who bought have an "oh crap" moment, and there's not much support until 30 where the same story applies.
In either case, 50 won't be the bottom.
July 06, 2013, 04:00:38 AM
yeah 
a quick pump.. so he can sell later on at higher prices and its working
i'm not buying
sentiment to 50's to big .. all wants to catch bottom.
yesterday wall of 2800 bid side trying to push price up got eaten in a half a minute
there's much hidden sell power there we dont know off..
also hidden buy power.. but they want 50's coins.
edit: looking at bids.; not much support over 68 at all..
a quick pump.. so he can sell later on at higher prices and its workingi'm not buying
sentiment to 50's to big .. all wants to catch bottom.
yesterday wall of 2800 bid side trying to push price up got eaten in a half a minute
there's much hidden sell power there we dont know off..
also hidden buy power.. but they want 50's coins.
edit: looking at bids.; not much support over 68 at all..
July 06, 2013, 03:47:45 AM
Someone just did a juicy 2k buy.
July 06, 2013, 03:10:01 AM
Dont know if today or tomorrow will dump coins till price hit 65$
July 06, 2013, 03:01:54 AM
What i dont understand is the people that are holding ,say 10k B that thay are not cashing out now ?
Even if thay think that we will stay at this price.
Becuse if thay dump 10k now the price will fall realy hard and only profit would thay make.
And if you have over 10k you are probebly a person that are not stupid, i think its just crazy that we dont se a faster and bigger drop . And becuse of that we maby wont hit as hard that we think ,but i will hold
My cash steady for som time now .
Even if thay think that we will stay at this price.
Becuse if thay dump 10k now the price will fall realy hard and only profit would thay make.
And if you have over 10k you are probebly a person that are not stupid, i think its just crazy that we dont se a faster and bigger drop . And becuse of that we maby wont hit as hard that we think ,but i will hold
My cash steady for som time now .
No point in selling right now, the order book needs to build some depth, as soon as there will be juicy bids then its time to dump.
We may have another couple of weeks of calm and quietness before the next round of big dumps
July 06, 2013, 02:30:51 AM
We are in quite oversold territory now. A bounce would not be extraordinary, but in the larger scheme of things, the overall trend is still down.
Seems like the low volym bounce has begin
July 06, 2013, 02:01:00 AM
We are in quite oversold territory now. A bounce would not be extraordinary, but in the larger scheme of things, the overall trend is still down.
July 06, 2013, 01:54:09 AM
Or just the first half of the selling is over?
^ This
It isn't going to be over until we hit mid $50's
July 06, 2013, 01:00:50 AM
July 06, 2013, 12:59:49 AM
88k BTC to $50 on the bid side, while there's only 143k BTC total on the orderbook. 25k BTC just to $60. Not that it's really all that indicative of anything since when shit really goes down, walls tend not to mean anything at all.
But 60k BTC in bids from $60 to $50 appears somewhat bullish. A lot of buying pressure may just be waiting for "cheap coinz", which may never materialize.
But 60k BTC in bids from $60 to $50 appears somewhat bullish. A lot of buying pressure may just be waiting for "cheap coinz", which may never materialize.
July 06, 2013, 12:40:51 AM
What i dont understand is the people that are holding ,say 10k B that thay are not cashing out now ?
Even if thay think that we will stay at this price.
Becuse if thay dump 10k now the price will fall realy hard and only profit would thay make.
And if you have over 10k you are probebly a person that are not stupid, i think its just crazy that we dont se a faster and bigger drop . And becuse of that we maby wont hit as hard that we think ,but i will hold
My cash steady for som time now .
Even if thay think that we will stay at this price.
Becuse if thay dump 10k now the price will fall realy hard and only profit would thay make.
And if you have over 10k you are probebly a person that are not stupid, i think its just crazy that we dont se a faster and bigger drop . And becuse of that we maby wont hit as hard that we think ,but i will hold
My cash steady for som time now .
A person with 10k B probably bought them for $10,000.
July 06, 2013, 12:36:13 AM
What i dont understand is the people that are holding ,say 10k B that thay are not cashing out now ?
Even if thay think that we will stay at this price.
Becuse if thay dump 10k now the price will fall realy hard and only profit would thay make.
And if you have over 10k you are probebly a person that are not stupid, i think its just crazy that we dont se a faster and bigger drop . And becuse of that we maby wont hit as hard that we think ,but i will hold
My cash steady for som time now .
Even if thay think that we will stay at this price.
Becuse if thay dump 10k now the price will fall realy hard and only profit would thay make.
And if you have over 10k you are probebly a person that are not stupid, i think its just crazy that we dont se a faster and bigger drop . And becuse of that we maby wont hit as hard that we think ,but i will hold
My cash steady for som time now .
July 06, 2013, 12:09:11 AM
Or just the first half of the selling is over?
^ This
It isn't going to be over until we hit mid $50's
What happened to long, slow slide?
We've dropped almost half in less than 2 weeks.
Arent we overdue for a correction-correction?
[Dead cat bounce, is this the term?] July 06, 2013, 12:00:46 AM
Jump to: