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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33051. (Read 26497327 times)

legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD.html



Look at that same chart, zoomed out.

To get as many bids as asks at 108, you have go right down to 80!  Shocked

Ranging from 90-100 looks easily possible. Less than 90 doesn't look off the table either.

I currently have speculative orders in at 91 and 81, while I monitor the action from a distance.

Ahhh, I didn't realize there was a fuller chart available - Thx.

Be really really careful with your placements. You might very well make a profit but if the volume there is so low that it will slice through and won't bounce off the bottom till it hits resistance (which may be at $60 - $70). Looking at the chart last weekend I came up with these key support levels: $90, $82, $60, low $50's and possibly 20's. Nothing really new with my numbers but I did verify some of the patterns with the past bubble correction.

Yes, approx. 91 and 81 are my immediate goals. I suspect there will be bounces to profit off these resistance points. I would expect to buy in again lower should the price permit.

Thinking that for the moment this withdrawl issue is temporary. I don't know how many people are going to need fiat so urgently that they are willing to dump for $80. I could be wrong though.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD.html



Look at that same chart, zoomed out.

To get as many bids as asks at 108, you have go right down to 80!  Shocked

Ranging from 90-100 looks easily possible. Less than 90 doesn't look off the table either.

I currently have speculative orders in at 91 and 81, while I monitor the action from a distance.

Ahhh, I didn't realize there was a fuller chart available - Thx.

Be really really careful with your placements. You might very well make a profit but if the volume there is so low that it will slice through and won't bounce off the bottom till it hits resistance (which may be at $60 - $70). Looking at the chart last weekend I came up with these key support levels: $90, $82, $60, low $50's and possibly 20's. Nothing really new with my numbers but I did verify some of the patterns with the past bubble correction.

Yes, approx. 91 and 81 are my immediate goals. I suspect there will be bounces to profit off these resistance points. I would expect to buy in again lower should the price permit.
sr. member
Activity: 387
Merit: 250



Look at that same chart, zoomed out.

To get as many bids as asks at 108, you have go right down to 80!  Shocked
Not only that, but there's $570000 in leveraged long positions on bitfinex according to https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats , which is about the same as the order book at Bitstamp!

If my math is right, a long position taken at $105 at 2.5:1 leverage and 90% reserve would get liquidated at $75.  Since there's only 3100 btc to $75, someone could sell 3100 btc down to $75, then likely catch the subsequent liquidations to regain their bitcoin holdings at a lower price.  Hmm.  Perhaps that's what the eager bitstamp seller was trying to do when they dropped the price to $90?  Or perhaps there was an eager seller to $95, and the rest was the liquidation of a bitfinex user that took a long position at $120+?  Big liquidations like that used to happen all the time when Bitcoinica allowed 10:1 leverage.

legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
Drop in MtGox started!
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1819
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
Wow, this is interesting. Looks like MtGox is really learning how to F themselves (not to mention a lot of their customers).
Looks like Gox is going to lose a lot more market share after this one, rightfully so and good for us.
I'm gonna sit this one out until things clarify themselves. Did I get my shooting star?  Wink

Predictions from this fellas?


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD.html



Look at that same chart, zoomed out.

To get as many bids as asks at 108, you have go right down to 80!  Shocked

Ranging from 90-100 looks easily possible. Less than 90 doesn't look off the table either.

I currently have speculative orders in at 91 and 81, while I monitor the action from a distance.

Ahhh, I didn't realize there was a fuller chart available - Thx.

Be really really careful with your placements. You might very well make a profit but if the volume there is so low that it will slice through and won't bounce off the bottom till it hits resistance (which may be at $60 - $70). Looking at the chart last weekend I came up with these key support levels: $90, $82, $60, low $50's and possibly 20's. Nothing really new with my numbers but I did verify some of the patterns with the past bubble correction.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
Wow, this is interesting. Looks like MtGox is really learning how to F themselves (not to mention a lot of their customers).
Looks like Gox is going to lose a lot more market share after this one, rightfully so and good for us.
I'm gonna sit this one out until things clarify themselves. Did I get my shooting star?  Wink

Predictions from this fellas?



http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD.html



Look at that same chart, zoomed out.

To get as many bids as asks at 108, you have go right down to 80!  Shocked

Ranging from 90-100 looks easily possible. Less than 90 doesn't look off the table either.

I currently have speculative orders in at 91 and 81, while I monitor the action from a distance.
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...

Is it more difficult to get wires out of BTc-e?

I notice that on their USD wire section is says:
Quote
International withdrawals will be charged with 1.5% fee, minimum fee is $150

Is this $150 a typo or what?
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...

BTC.de is at $112 (The Germans are very resistant ;-)
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...

What the heck is going to happen once people can withdraw their money from Gox?

If you can sell higher and move the money out, many will do that.  Wait 13 days? 10 days? 5 days?

Which larger seller is gonna blink first on Gox?







sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance".  A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.  
And if you had for example 5k BTC to dump, would you really take the 1 in 20 chance that your half a million might go down the toilet?

A manipulator won't do it because by their nature they like to be in control, and in this situation they aren't. Someone in this to invest won't do it because the risk is too high and they don't like pissing money away.

The spread between exchanges put it's more like 1 in 10
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1819
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
member
Activity: 88
Merit: 10
Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance".  A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.  
And if you had for example 5k BTC to dump, would you really take the 1 in 20 chance that your half a million might go down the toilet?

A manipulator won't do it because by their nature they like to be in control, and in this situation they aren't. Someone in this to invest won't do it because the risk is too high and they don't like pissing money away.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
Wow, this is interesting. Looks like MtGox is really learning how to F themselves (not to mention a lot of their customers).
Looks like Gox is going to lose a lot more market share after this one, rightfully so and good for us.
I'm gonna sit this one out until things clarify themselves. Did I get my shooting star?  Wink

Predictions from this fellas?

legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then.  Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.

No dumper will be fool enough to dump until/if withdrawals option are back.Be it manipulator as nobody will panic sell or genuine big seller.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance".  A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.  
member
Activity: 88
Merit: 10
Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out
full member
Activity: 232
Merit: 100
I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then.  Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.
The dumper would need balls of steel to bother selling on gox at this point in time, and the other markets don't have the depth for it to be worthwhile

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Why? Price are higher than everywhere else.
Seems like a perfect place to sell.
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