Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33396. (Read 26462494 times)

who said up? altough mid-term bullish (long term i hope people wont need no more money) originally I expected a false breakout downwards before going up ...

now, as price did not establish above 120 due to low volume there is even more chance of a down swing ...

we shall see and act accordingly ...

Sweet Jesus it brings a tear to my eye to see weak bears leave.

That's like saying, “I used to invest $5,000 in BTC when it got me 65 coins, but now it only buys me 40 coins, that sucks!”. If you’re investing in BTC, that’s a good thing. It means they’re worth more. Lets say you take $10,000 to invest on NASDAQ. Hmm, Google, $880? Fuck that. Groupon, $6? Much better.  But wait, you could buy penny stocks and own 50,000 shares! Holy shit ballz!

BTC has been over $100 most of the last 2 months. People didn’t have a problem when we had plenty of volatility. People don’t like it now, because woops, the volatility didn’t bail you out. So you’re faced with buying back at a higher price point and having fewer coins. Then you’d have to deal with the realization you shouldn’t have sold. Instead of facing that fact, you’d rather go trade another Cryptocoin. I could use $5000 to buy 44 BTC, or I could buy 1,500 Litecoins! FUCK YAH IMMA MAKE IT RAIN LITECOINS!

If that 44 vs 1,500 makes it look like a better deal, heading to litecoins is probably a good idea. However I’d suggest instead of $5,000, drop your investment pool down to like $5. Emotionally that’s a much easier number to deal with when trading.

This is how I imagine weak bears moving to other markets to trade because triple digit BTC rocks their world.

Not sure if "false" breakout is the best way to describe it, but yes, I expect price to go up somewhat shortly, oscillators say we're pretty oversold.

Yeah, but hindsight is also 20/20. I'm pretty sure (haven't done the hard maths, and probably won't cause it's the weekend) that if you start from the premise that you'll trade successfully only 50% of the time, buy and hold is a much better approach in the long run than trying to play the market swings.

Yeah, but hindsight is also 20/20. I'm pretty sure (haven't done the hard maths, and probably won't cause it's the weekend) that if you start from the premise that you'll trade successfully only 50% of the time, buy and hold is a much better approach in the long run than trying to play the market swings.

As may be seen in the following table, replacing the table from Chapter 5,
the Dow Theory continued to provide its user an advantage over the
unaware Buy-and-Hold Investor. From its original investment of $100 in
1897 the Theory investment would have grown to $345,781.94 by December
31, 2005, with the long trade still open. The table below shows the details,
including the post-2000 bust drawdown. To my mind this table is a powerful
demonstration of the power of methodical technical investing.
By contrast, the investment of $100, if bought at the low, 29.64, and sold at
the historic high, 11762.71, in January 2000 would have grown to $39,685.03.

In the bubble burst from $32 to $2.50 I did not sell a single coin. Instead I've been buying increasingly more thinking: "you idiots, it's just bad press, the fundamentals are sound" and so on. A bit green behind the ears I was back then.

Of course in hindsight it would've been better to sell all and buy back in at $2.50.

On the other hand I recently talked to a guy I got to know in early 2011. He had been mining and sold everything in late 2011 only to discover bitcoin had gone to 3 digits. He now says: I won't buy, it's too expensive.

Just holding on to your coins is not the best thing to do, but not the worst thing either.

In the bubble burst from $32 to $2.50 I did not sell a single coin. Instead I've been buying increasingly more thinking: "you idiots, it's just bad press, the fundamentals are sound" and so on. A bit green behind the ears I was back then.

Of course in hindsight it would've been better to sell all and buy back in at $2.50.

On the other hand I recently talked to a guy I got to know in early 2011. He had been mining and sold everything in late 2011 only to discover bitcoin had gone to 3 digits. He now says: I won't buy, it's too expensive.

Just holding on to your coins is not the best thing to do, but not the worst thing either.

I don't think it really does. This was a no-hope company with not really much going for it. I knew the mechanics of a pump & dump but thought my friend knew what he was talking about. I held because I was mentally incapable of locking-in my losses. Now it's not even worth my time to sell what I have. Bitcoin is pretty solid under the hood (in my opinion) and I'm holding less for the chance to "cash out" in the future but more because I believe it will be expensive to "cash in" once the full potential starts unfolding.

another false breakout eminent?

In a bubble collapse, there are often bag holders who are wary to sell at a big loss so hang on for a while and those who attempt to double-down. I got involved in one once (on the advice of someone else. I should have known better) and watched as it took about four months for my shares to drop from 40c to 1c or so after the bust.

I don't think that's what's happening with Bitcoin at all but it's simply not necessarily the case that the deflation after a bubble burst is all that quick.

I think you are pointing out the difference between 'panic' and 'hold and hope' ... quick vs slow deflation being the differing outcomes. No idea how this applies to Bitcoin right now, but I agree with the point you are making

In a bubble collapse, there are often bag holders who are wary to sell at a big loss so hang on for a while and those who attempt to double-down. I got involved in one once (on the advice of someone else. I should have known better) and watched as it took about four months for my shares to drop from 40c to 1c or so after the bust.

I don't think that's what's happening with Bitcoin at all but it's simply not necessarily the case that the deflation after a bubble burst is all that quick.

The point is to get the cheapest coins possible in a certain time frame. But in absolute terms,  $115 coins is super cheap. If you really believe that these are expensive coins, it can only be because you think that Bitcoin will never develop further potential -  this was its peak in use.  

ATM, that looks as a foolish statement - if you really understand Bitcoin, you will see that you really cannot afford to lose the opportunity to invest in it.

^^ This
As I said in my original post re my sentiments right now

I agree with about the oxymoronic use of 'slow' panic   ... that don't make much sense ...
However, I dont agree that anyone who wants to buy in at a lower level than this is trying to get in at a discount. There are a lot of assumptions in that. I know that is not exactly what you said, but similar things have been said by many people, so I am just pointing it out that it ain't necessarily so. I am sure there are people running round trying to scare people so they can buy cheaper something they believe to be worth more (I see them!). Some others amongst us just don't want to buy at these prices and see too much risk here and now.

I agree with about the oxymoronic use of 'slow' panic   ... that don't make much sense ...
However, I dont agree that anyone who wants to buy in at a lower level than this is trying to get in at a discount. There are a lot of assumptions in that. I know that is not exactly what you said, but similar things have been said by many people, so I am just pointing it out that it ain't necessarily so. I am sure there are people running round trying to scare people so they can buy cheaper something they believe to be worth more (I see them!). Some others amongst us just don't want to buy at these prices and see too much risk here and now.

4. Wait for a price drop to justify buying in, or else leave it behind.