LOL, nothing is clear or guaranteed in any way.
Here's one scenario which could release a lot of tied up BTC and drive the price down.
A lot of people have Bitcoin tied up in ASICMINER shares, for those of you who aren't aware ASICMINER has more than doubled in price over the last couple of weeks and it appears to have already peaked at the moment.
Any large scale sell off of these shares will free up a lot of Bitcoin for profit taking. That's many 1000's of Bitcoin and they could be dumped at a moments notice.
I'm wondering if that guy who purchased $1 Million worth of Bitcoin last friday has been pumping ASICMINER shares all week with his BTC. The timing seems about right to me.
No one needs to pump ASICMINER shares. Dude is a genius. He's selling off his 1st gen equipment, which will be considered garbage in 3 months, at 5k a pop. Just as his new shit is arriving. People are investing in him, because he clearly knows what he's doing and has a plan. Anyone who invested 5k USD in him at the start is now a millionaire.
If anyone starts selling lots of ASICMINER shares, there will be 1000 people lined up to buy. While currently a little overpriced, that dude knows his shit inside and out.
And like someone else said, the total amount of BTC tied up, is a drop in the bucket. 10,000s of BTC changes hands daily.
The only reason we'd see dumping right now is from a few whales who helped stabilize the price before and during the conference. When the DHS news hit, between $103-$108 there were 1,000s of BTC purchased, in large chunks (100k-400k USD market orders). The DHS news clearly forced a few people to buy lots of BTC, who at some point might dump it back on the market. But since we're slowly heading up that's probably not going to happen any time soon.