Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33429. (Read 26707027 times)

The last two 10% drops were not related to any news event.  ...also, there is no VC that is going to put significant amounts of cash into something that is so heavily influenced by illegal activity.  At the moment, the Bitcoin economy is still used 90% for Silk Road purchases.

Ok, so you're short term bearish.

Liquidity has to grow A LOT. But the Bitcoin concept is so fascinating that a lot of people is putting a lot of work on it, and more clever people is getting hooked to it.

Agreed ... if the velocity of Bitcoin 'money' could increase (ie more liquidity on the exchanges), the price would not need to rise to accommodate increased trade, but as most of it is locked away, as an instrument of exchange it is well, not the best right now. People want to hold their coins til they are worth thousands so that the very small free float could then accommodate the needs of an economy.

 I am not convinced that it will work like that. At the moment we are like a penny stock in which the original owners have sold about 5% of company. Its a speculative investment, not a currency, yet many are calling it the currency of the future. I am not denying that there is much more to the blockchain, just looking at BTC as a currency here and now. It is so illiquid that it will not attract any serious players right now. I imagine that there are some medium sized fish who got hooked during the high volume period that right now simply so not know what to do. They cannot liquidate their investment without dramatically moving the price and they can't use it for anything either (on the scale we are talking). Not what it said on the tin. Not crying for them ... they are all big boys.

Big fish need much more liquidity than this market is currently willing to provide. They don't like 'trades' they cannot exit from. Like it or not, there will always be more than one 'currency' ... the ability to switch between them, whatever they are, is key to adoption.

I am not an economist so please do not pick this argument to pieces on academic grounds ... it is just my slightly educated opinion, and I am sure there are many holes. And this is neither a bullish nor bearish post, just some thoughts.

Sure it's bearish.

Unless you're trying to tell that a short term drop of 50% is inconsequent.

All that needs to happen for the price to start rocketing again is for the big VCs to back a fully-registered, convenient-to-use, stable and secure exchange, eliminating all uncertainty from the market.  Is that so far out of the question?
Every major down-spike in the last few weeks has been due to the government or MtGox doing something wrong, but with all the VC money flowing in, things are going to get better.

I can't wait to see what Bitcoin looks like on New Year's Day 2014

Mexican Dwarf Toreador.  Make of it what you will.

Really, this is an exciting place to be. Taking part in the largest social experiment the world has ever known is huge. Maybe that makes BTC sound cheap as it will live on in many forms regardless
of what the government does, so the experimental part is the immediate part.

I don't see it like that, at all.

The longer it takes before we start going up again, the more bearish I become.

The price of Bitcoin is largely irrelevant to economic activity. XRP for instance has a theoretical market cap several times that of Bitcoin, yet nobody really uses ripple right now.

I agree on the fact that the stability we had during the last days is very bullish. After a parabolic growth period that looked and felt like a huge bubble exposed to the eyes of the whole world, BTC is trading at almost x10 the price we had in January ($14). I still can't help thinking that what we had prior April 10th looked indeed like a bubble, but the truth is the price is not reflecting that, the price says we just had a correction during a very significant growth trend.

Bubble followed by slow bear market decline is still a possibility, but every day trading on this range is one point more for the "correction" case, and a point less for the "bubble burst" case.

This time, the train will live the station (again) rather sooner than later.

As I've been repeating since the week after the crash, this is no 2011.

How does a currency provides the nuts and bolts for an economy that has a value flow larger than it?

Bubble followed by slow bear market decline is still a possibility, but every day trading on this range is one point more for the "correction" case, and a point less for the "bubble burst" case.