Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33466. (Read 26461926 times)
May 07, 2013, 07:20:05 PM
May 07, 2013, 07:15:44 PM
Almost no walls, price not diving nor sky rocketing for very long periods of time...
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
No walls? 1k at 110. 5k to 115, 15k to 120. They're not consolidated but there's a fuck load of asks out there between 110-120. For a $10 span it's well above average.
1k, 5k, even 10k seems a lot but this much is being sold and bought almost every hour now.
May 07, 2013, 07:13:52 PM
I think it's important to realize that a floor can essentially be set at 50, simply because there is too much money in the system.
Consider a large holder of Bitcoin (a few of these exist). At least 5 of them will have sold >$1m each (if you don't believe this, let's say 50 with $100k) and still have some remaining while it was going up, or during the two bounces (to $200 and to $166). So that's $5m.
Bitcoin has never had $5m of bids at low prices (below 50) without going up. These major players will be able to put up bids well in excess of 100k BTC. And if by some calamitous event it reaches $20, there will be quite a few people who can form almost insurmountable bidwalls. We're talking 200k-300k BTC aggregate demand at such levels.
Too much money in the system. Bitcoin can't go so low.
This is very different from June 2011, when bids were so weak, a sale of 10k BTC could drop it >30% at the peak. This rally was well-supported by money coming into the system from big players who have a good understanding of fundamentals. At $30, the price can move from housewives who saw BTC on TV buying in. At $200, money necessarily comes from big players who have researched Bitcoin thoroughly, and who all have a long-term, rational view of Bitcoin.
The money in Gox/Bitstamp is larger in quantity than 2011, and different in nature. I think this is enough to conclude that a massive drop of 90% from peak is not in the cards. Then it's not so unreasonable to say that 80% from peak, or $50, is the floor.
Consider a large holder of Bitcoin (a few of these exist). At least 5 of them will have sold >$1m each (if you don't believe this, let's say 50 with $100k) and still have some remaining while it was going up, or during the two bounces (to $200 and to $166). So that's $5m.
Bitcoin has never had $5m of bids at low prices (below 50) without going up. These major players will be able to put up bids well in excess of 100k BTC. And if by some calamitous event it reaches $20, there will be quite a few people who can form almost insurmountable bidwalls. We're talking 200k-300k BTC aggregate demand at such levels.
Too much money in the system. Bitcoin can't go so low.
This is very different from June 2011, when bids were so weak, a sale of 10k BTC could drop it >30% at the peak. This rally was well-supported by money coming into the system from big players who have a good understanding of fundamentals. At $30, the price can move from housewives who saw BTC on TV buying in. At $200, money necessarily comes from big players who have researched Bitcoin thoroughly, and who all have a long-term, rational view of Bitcoin.
The money in Gox/Bitstamp is larger in quantity than 2011, and different in nature. I think this is enough to conclude that a massive drop of 90% from peak is not in the cards. Then it's not so unreasonable to say that 80% from peak, or $50, is the floor.
May 07, 2013, 07:12:55 PM
i saw that wall at 111 just retreated in time
May 07, 2013, 07:12:41 PM
I think that's 2 for 2 on the day. $114. 
May 07, 2013, 07:12:18 PM
Big buy.
May 07, 2013, 07:12:07 PM
Wow.
May 07, 2013, 07:09:09 PM
Almost no walls, price not diving nor sky rocketing for very long periods of time...
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
No walls? 1k at 110. 5k to 115, 15k to 120. They're not consolidated but there's a fuck load of asks out there between 110-120. For a $10 span it's well above average.
May 07, 2013, 07:08:53 PM
No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
6 could be pro bull no?... converging on 100, and next week is mid May
5 could change
re: 6. sure, pretty weak point, only relevant right now where we're a bit ahead.
re: 5. true. but, given current information, I'd say there's slightly more evidence for the downward trend than for the upwards one.
none of the points is really strong individually. I'm as undecided as anyone else here seems to be :/
May 07, 2013, 07:05:53 PM
Almost no walls, price not diving nor sky rocketing for very long periods of time...
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
May 07, 2013, 07:01:59 PM
No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
6 could be pro bull no?... converging on 100, and next week is mid May
5 could change
May 07, 2013, 06:56:27 PM
the trend is reversing, expect a slow climb with some sharp drops and recoveries as the bears commit suicide, once prohond come on and says something like "wow price is kinda high, good time to sell a few" thats when you know all the bears are dead, and the cost is clear 
May 07, 2013, 06:51:11 PM
No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
Nice post bro.
May 07, 2013, 06:51:02 PM
The person pushing the price up could also be placing all the ask walls of 100. Trying to get people to buy them. There are people that have admitted to buying their own massive walls in order to create a bull rush/rally. These people have so much money they don't care about the fees of buying their own walls as long as they make more profit in the end.
I don't know. Reddit looks quite bullish. 40k subscirbers was passed today and it is already 40,116.
Plus top headlines:
Ex-Facebook Exec says Facebook Should Bring Bitcoin into the Mainstream. Wow! (businessinsider.com)
Coinbase Nabs $5M in Biggest Funding for Bitcoin Startup - WSJ (blogs.wsj.com)
How 23-year-old Charlie Shrem became a millionaire through Bitcoin (londonlovesbusiness.com)
This was enjoyable to read. My bullish instincts ignited a bit, lol. I still wouldn't mind a drop before our push upwards.
May 07, 2013, 06:50:19 PM
The person pushing the price up could also be placing all the ask walls of 100. Trying to get people to buy them. There are people that have admitted to buying their own massive walls in order to create a bull rush/rally. These people have so much money they don't care about the fees of buying their own walls as long as they make more profit in the end.
I have seen walls on both sides, that are suddenly dropped and the buying/selling plows into what is left. It seems to sucker people forward then the wall drops and its grabbed up. Even if a lot of the walls are fake they usually have the desired effect.
May 07, 2013, 06:50:04 PM
the trend is reversing, expect a slow climb with some sharp drops and recoveries as the bears commit suicide, once prohond come on and says something like "wow price is kinda high, good time to sell a few" thats when you know all the bears are dead, and the cost is clear
May 07, 2013, 06:49:05 PM
The person pushing the price up could also be placing all the ask walls of 100. Trying to get people to buy them. There are people that have admitted to buying their own massive walls in order to create a bull rush/rally. These people have so much money they don't care about the fees of buying their own walls as long as they make more profit in the end.
I don't know. Reddit looks quite bullish. 40k subscirbers was passed today and it is already 40,116.
Plus top headlines:
Ex-Facebook Exec says Facebook Should Bring Bitcoin into the Mainstream. Wow! (businessinsider.com)
Coinbase Nabs $5M in Biggest Funding for Bitcoin Startup - WSJ (blogs.wsj.com)
How 23-year-old Charlie Shrem became a millionaire through Bitcoin (londonlovesbusiness.com)
May 07, 2013, 06:47:45 PM
No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
May 07, 2013, 06:47:02 PM
It will drop to 90 this time
)
)It may be, but I'm putting my bids a little higher, I even bought a good chunk at 108ish after testing $110 the second time.
Too many fake bears oversold and thriving to buy back at some point. Not very scientific but hey, you have to follow your intuition sometimes
May 07, 2013, 06:45:24 PM
The person pushing the price up could also be placing all the ask walls of 100. Trying to get people to buy them. There are people that have admitted to buying their own massive walls in order to create a bull rush/rally. These people have so much money they don't care about the fees of buying their own walls as long as they make more profit in the end.
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