Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33515. (Read 26461345 times)

if that was difficult to parse, the idea is that the greater the number of points of contact, the more robust the trendline is.
this is because, as frozen pointed out, any line at all can be drawn across one point, two points is enough to define an arbitrary unique line, but three points is a 'coincidence', or in statistics terms, a correlation.

i admit that the lines above only have 2 points of contact. the evidence for their robustness is in the price movement right now.

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers.
we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.
...
as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

it's easier to see on this scale: [taken approx. 12 hours ago]

-===-



-===-

we're just hitting that red line, the marked upper bound of the (yellow) triangle.

these things are like magic

IOW: It doesn't fit the story? (Good question, frozenlock.)


Arepo: That does sound like magic.

I wake up and wallzilla is MIA. Anybody knows at which point he unloaded his coins? Maybe he was the one who sold 2k coins at $124?

I don't buy that one - why the triangle is going throught the point at Apr 29 and not Apr 23?  The triangle involving the 266 hight was already broken, but now we can have another one starting at the low point and then Apr 29 high and resting on Apr 23.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers. we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.

in the picture above, there are 4 possible robust lines, all with 2 points of contact (the minimum for a unique line). i've only drawn 3, can you see the other? hint: what if you assume that the lowest price points of the two recent green bottoms are outliers?

as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

these things are like magic

great rendering of the triangle that confirms my suspicions of an imminent correction/downward breakout.

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

Should we close this thread and make a new one again? It's getting too many pages again.....

Hmm..

I must practice my triangle-fu, I still don't see it.

He might have one, but something I've learned (and read/recognized from J. Krishnamurti) is that we need to "See the truth in the false". In other words, everyone has something to say and there are true words coming from everyone - and quite often wise due to different lives, circumstances, experiences, etc. I'm not saying he is all truth or all false, but clearly he adds a lot to the talk. I listen to what everyone has to say. Sometimes we look for just a "professional" perspective with big words and all that, and then we miss the teacher on the street that goes under the radar. I'm not coming down on you either, just being slightly contrarian.  

LOL someone has a massive ego. 

We are moving forward at a pace that is not linear, maybe not exponential, but quadratic or somewhere like that.

He's saying the influx makes it necessary for a such a dip, if it is going to happen, to occur before the new money arrives.

Let's not forget that a major bubble popped less than 30 days ago. It took one year for the price to return to $30 after the 2011 bubble. For me the only thing holding us back from the strong downward pressure from the last crash is the Chinese news. People have been squabbling over what this news means in the short-range. What are the implications of this for the months to come? This is MAJOR progress for bitcoin. The Chinese government is most certainly backing bitcoin as we have had multiple media leaks endorsing it. It cannot be an isolated event.

The investors will probably be pretty bad until the bad ones lose capital. Therefore I expect a lot of volatility in the coming weeks.



We're actually riding this upper wall. I believe the reason we have not crashed (and appear to be rallying) after we smashed the 120 wall and wallzilla jumped ship is because the market is deciding how it is going to react to the China news. The market WILL react to this positively, it is simply too big to ignore. I see a steady rise upwards that gets refueled on Tuesday when the new money is released (the new investors will be happy to jump on the upswing, and actually, this is quite good IMO. This will act as a catching net and widen the base of initial investors from China. Only good things ahead for BTC