Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33571. (Read 26493187 times)

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...

People are quick to dismiss the run to 266 as a bubble. Which is was. However the exposure, Bitcoin press, spike in searches, downloads, growth globally, lots of very positive side affects. The old saying that there's no such thing as bad publicity, turned out to be true for Bitcoin. While you can discount the rapid price surge up to 266, a lot of legitimate value was indeed created. Whether that's 5%, %15, 30%, that's up for debate.

Take our growth line, add in a bump for the 266 bubble, landing at $105-$125 sounds about right. Days of sideways action. Where's the panic sellers? Where's the panic buyers? Panic has left the building. The people on the sidelines are praying for a crash so they can jump back in. When a bubble collapses, people flee the market. You have panic selling. We had an epic crash. The idea that people are "slowly" fleeing the market and "slowly" panic selling and that it's just an extended collapse is turning into a bad punchline. The only people left saying that are people trying to get back in at a discount.

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.
Some will likely chase it if it goes up
Some, like me, will simply walk away
I don't see it as a given that all the money sitting at lower levels will invest at higher levels if we don't go down - some of it is sitting there because it that is where it feels comfortable. A lot of the smart money won't chase the train IMO ... it is generally more disciplined than that (I do not by inference mean to classify myself as smart money  )
And I still see the potential for more early adopters to take some cash off the table for a very good profit at these levels and lower

An as yet unknown external shock, positive or negative, may determine the outcome

Slightly contrarian, not trying to scare anyone, just giving the opinion of someone who is new to Bitcoin (about 6 weeks of exposure) and thinking about not jumping on board unless we go down significantly from here.
Until there is more utility it is purely a speculative investment as far as I can tell. These things will come I am sure. Well, everyone says they will. But until then, it caries a very large 'Caveat Emptor' tag, which for me means I don't want to invest at current levels.

That is not to say that I do not find the whole concept very interesting indeed

Time will tell ... I am as clueless about the future direction as everyone else  

Oh indeed, on the log chart the supporting trend for 2013 is largely straight and one we are slowly settling in on.

Highs are getting lower. Lows are getting higher. And we're settling down right on top of our historical growth line. That crazy market, it knew the truth the entire time.

It's more likely to resume where the exponential growth left off, before going nova. Therefore not going to go down much. Look at the curves, not the lines.  

$100 price is too far gone.

*shrugs* I dunno might be stretching it a bit much to call this anything.

A more reliable indicator is this: I feel lucky

Do you think we are currently in a bubble? I think the $100 mark is psychologically important to a lot of investors/speculators/traders. I'd love to hear of someones Fibonacci analysis on this one.

Agreed. It was a bumpy road, but I'm glad we're finally here. 

Indeed, a bubble collapses because new buyers diminish. Most of the trades from here to the bottom of the bubble will be the iterative transfer from weak hands to stronger hands. Hands become weak as fewer successive buyers prop up prices.

*lol* Truer words were never spoken.

But clearly there is lots of fiat on the order book, it's just in the "hoping for a crash" range.

It doesn't help that all the people waiting for a crash are posting the bubble is about to burst, crash is coming, sell your btc. They fail to mention if it did drop, they'd buy it back up faster then you can blink.

Shit I hope it crashes too. It's easy money. At the same time I'm not going to go around making charts trying to scare the fish.

The problem is, they're all at $40-$60-$80 hoping for cheap coins. As Goat has said, it's not until $125 where people will let go of the notion cheap coins are just around the corner. Once sub-$100 isn't likely in the short term, those people will buy back in and we should have a nice rally. But for now they're sitting on the sideline praying to whatever pagan God causes markets to crash.

Edit: And in a volatile market, periods of sideways action are generally considered bullish. While boring, it's good for the market and Bitcoin.

The bid sum is interesting. According to the chart, the sum rapidly declined from a similar high point during the drop from $145 down to $80.

It will take volume to consume the walls constituted by those bids. We are witnessing very low volume.

Note the expected low weekend volume.

But ask sum is higher than last time. Still I think, we will go up.

Bid Sum is almost at all times high. Last time this happened we went to 160.

Have we left the racy moves behind and are now turtley going up, or will some tiny positive news ignite a rocket?