I think that Jay and I can probably more or less agree that you have overconfidence in your predictive abilities. (To put the matter “diplomatically”.)
And I think that all of us can more or less agree that you are the mindrust for this season.
I beg to differ, losing the stash due to margin gambling is a whole new level of mindrusting compared to selling the bottom and exiting the market without loss (IIRC mindrust even made a small gain or at least no loss). Maybe the term
mindrust2ing would be appropriate for leveraged gambling?
mindrust did take a loss. I quoted this in one of my earlier posts. Obviously, in $ terms, he took orders of magnitude less loss than I did.
Note that although I had less BTC than he dumped in March 2020, the total $ market value of all the assets I lost was
much, much more than his BTC were worth in March 2020. (Multiply by
x; I do not want to give exact numbers.) Accordingly, I consider his voluntarily self-inflicted loss greater than mine; but most people would consider my loss much greater than his.
I didn’t panic and decide that I wanted fiat more than BTC. I didn’t fear that BTC may “go to zero”, which mindrust explicitly said multiple times. I did something foolish that got me trapped, spent months
clinging to my BTC while bleeding and sacrificing other assets, then wound up crushed with 0.05 BTC and, at present, $0.28 in USDT plus about enough money in the bank to pay food and household bills for a month. I do still have some alts; I intend to liquidate some of them to BTC when the market recovers. (BTC is down, but alts are down more.)
I have repeatedly expressed my negative opinions of mindrust, and stated that if I were to mindrust (i.e., voluntarily panic-dump my BTC in a crash), then I would assuredly kill myself. Not a joke.
In February's worst crash, a trusted friend advised me to exit at $35k with whatever BTC I could recover - just in case we dropped low enough to wipe me out. I replied that if I were to dump my BTC at $35k, and it turned out to be unnecessary, then I would kill myself. I meant that seriously; I was not just joking about it, as I am now (for the moment). In February, not dumping turned out to be the correct choice. Before today, I never sold even one satoshi for dollars (other than spending in normal use of Bitcoin as money).
[...]
So, bearing in mind that I am not strictly rational about BTC in the sense of "an economically rational actor", what is the least-bad choice?
mindrust myself out? As my friend argued, the difference is that mindrust was trying to save his worthless fiat shitcoins; he was at no risk, as long as 1 BTC = 1 BTC. I am trying to save bitcoins, not dollars; and I would sell the least necessary to free up whatever little bit remains. I calculate PnL in BTC, not USD. Though having dollars is nice, because it means I can look for a good opportunity to cash out to BTC. Anyway, this option potentially carries a very expensive cost externality, as aforesaid; but I do consider all options, even the ones I immediately reject.
Keep scraping along, searching for the bottom? I can currently survive down to about $29,200; [...]
Though in my opinion, they both deserve great credit for speaking so candidly about it and letting people learn from their mistakes, many of us probably fucked up badly at one point or another and (at least w/r to me it's the case) stayed silent so to not look dumb. We don't know how many diamond hands mindrusts story created, but I bet there are quite a few pairs of them. At least mine got definitely harder from it. And that's good me thinks.
Thanks.
Other replies will need to wait. I am spending too much time here, when I should be doing something about my lack of BTC and lack of BTC-buying funds.