No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
6 could be pro bull no?... converging on 100, and next week is mid May
5 could change
re: 6. sure, pretty weak point, only relevant right now where we're a bit ahead.
re: 5. true. but, given current information, I'd say there's slightly more evidence for the downward trend than for the upwards one.
none of the points is really strong individually. I'm as undecided as anyone else here seems to be :/
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