Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33658. (Read 26496538 times)

Well, I aim for 3% increase in BTC volume per day, so since I have just bought the BTC at $112.5, it's not worth cutting my losses at $110, as it will take longer to recover them.
Anyway, the downward trend seems to have lost momentum, and is turning back upwards.

I'm trying to make my initial buy-in of 6.2 bitcoins* into enough to quit work - I'm at 16.7 now, after 2.5 weeks, so eventually I will manage it - if only I can purchase and sell at the right time for once.

I'd rather take my time, and tread carefully. I have slipped back too many times this week (I had 22.5 BTC at one point, then held cash due to a badly timed sell, as it shot up on the 3rd while I was asleep. I tried to recover by buying in late, just as it peaked again - I lost about $500 that day)

The thing is, I have very limited resources, and I really don't think it will drop much below $110 again any time soon, so I'd rather not risk it.


* I bought those (literally) 15 minutes before it plunged from $250....

No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)

Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)

(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent

(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.

(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.

(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)

(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)

(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.

(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5

pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.

/pseudoscience