This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:
- the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
- there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)
I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.
IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.
Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.
But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.
Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.
In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.
200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.
That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.
If you are cautious, then I suspect you will not panic so easily and sell on a slight change of the wind direction, right? While smart investors usually initiate a crash, it has to be the panic sellers who execute them, no crash can happen without panic sellers, and they hardly buy back cheaper, else everybody will be a winner, so when they sold out they are out. I think even if the price moves down this time, it will be considerably less violent. The next panic sell will have to wait until after another crazy buying spree when irrational buyers put in what they can't afford to lose.
Another thing is: the crash was only so crazy thanks to the characteristics of Bitcoin itself:the whole global stock can be moved to the exchanges for sale in a matter of hours, which is unprecedented, so bears won the first move, but after they get their fiats they will have to deal with the reality of the banking system:you can only move so much in a day, so what will happen when they wait impatiently while watching the price slowly rebounds? Hmmm....
That's true. The system is fucked up also because it is so difficult to "cash out" a significant amount of money. Have you ever tried to cash out something above $500k from Gox? You can bet it is a fucking pain in the ass. Big commissions, painfully slow verification process (notarization, apostille, huge queue, etc.) and HUGE DELAY in processing withdrawals. When you made $500k from your $20k investment you are not used to move that amount of money, thus you get nervous when you see your money is stuck for 20/25 days at a Japanese company run by a guy in his 20s, constantly hit by DDoS and apparently unable to manage their own growth.
For serious money (i mean
serious money) to enter
BTC we need much more reliable infrastructure.