Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3400. (Read 26713938 times)

Explanation

And if you don't pay your web services, you do NOT do email. Seriously, I had reached you twice, but your email provider kept telling me you've deleted both (?), what happened to you nullius?

Oh, and:

I could not really have any kind of strong opinion, especially if we are trying to lock people into future behavior.  I have already had several battles with ImThour, and many times they had to do with his making outrageous claims, so I had offered to bet him a few times after he had made some outrageous statement or another.. which would mostly result in silence (or me getting ghosted).

I am really not into betting with anyone in the forum unless they make an outrageous statement and then I will offer to bet to get them to stand behind their statement... so in that regard, so far I have never gotten any takers... except maybe if they try to reframe the bet to something other than the outrageous statement that they had made .. but so far ImThour has not engaged in me in those kinds of discussions.. but he still does make some outrageous statements from time to time..  yet at the same time.. he seems to be getting a bit better too.. so he might be learning.. I cannot really know for sure... because it is a bit outrageous that he believes that he called the BTC spot price hitting the 200 Week moving average.. but whatever. it did likely pay off quite well for him.. so I cannot really hate on matters lke that working out.

Sure, I made some strong statement about you and your seeming gambling tendencies, and I am not even locked into any kind of proclamation that you are doomed forever to be a degen gambler, but you can be kind of stubborn in various regards.. .. and I suppose if we get on some kind of topic that seems bettable, then I would not mind betting.. but we probably would need to put some money at stake.. even if it is just a few hundred or a few thousand satoshis... if the statement from either you or me is really outrageous, then there would likely be odds that we would need to establish.. and we might not even agree on the terms of the bet, even if we might run across some topic that might be bettable.. so I would not mind doing something like that, and it seems to me that you tend to make more outrageous statements more frequently than me... but I cannot recall if any of those statements were really bettable.  One thing that could be bettable would relate to the price or something that is verifiable... but our opinions might not differ sufficiently enough in regards to the price to be bettable, either.


That's true.  Life can be kind of unfair like that.  We have talked about these kinds of related matters many times before in the thread, so let's say for example a lot of your peers and you can only have about $10 per week to stack sats.. some of them take advantage of stacking sats and others do not.  You may or may not over perform the DCA into BTC technique.... but I have my doubts, especially when we are looking at longer term performance going back 5-8 years or more. I have gotten into a quite a few battles against forum members over the years in regards to whether or not dumb shit they were doing trying to time the market and fucking around with various shitcoins would have been able to beat a DCA into BTC technique.. . whether we are talking about a $10 per week budget or a more aggressive budget of $100 per week or just working with whatever the budget of the other person might happen to be.

Even with you, D_W, if you want to go fuck around with various shitcoins, or trading  or margin and the other non-bitcoinprojects, then go do it, but keep your DCA on the side into bitcoin that maybe you just put aside into cold storage.. and maybe or maybe not you will catchup to some other members (or even your peers or any of your various nemeses that you might have) who currently have a BTC stacking lead on you.


No problem, if you are ready, willing and able to carry it out.


Of course, you gotta get there first, and with our latest BTC price drop in the last 6 weeks or so, 1 BTC may well have become attainable again.. but still it is a bit of a stretch for most newbie normies to have such expectations and to just go from 0 to 1.

Don't get me wrong, when I first came to bitcoin in late 2013, there were still quite a few normies batting around ideas to get three digits.. at least after the crash from $1,1163 down to the mid $200s, through most of 2015, 100 BTC became reachable again, even though in 2015  - a lot of members were still depressed and not really even talking about accumulating BTC.. but just hoping the BTC price goes UP with whatever quantity of BTC that they then had...

but anyhow the main point that I was trying to make is that it was somewhat realistic for newbie normies to create an initial BTC accumulation goals that shoots for 100+ BTC in 2015

But by the time we got into late 2016, the more realistic goal for newbie normies became 21 BTC, then it went down to 10 BTC (around mindrust's active time in this thread) and then 1 or 2 BTC by the time we got to our pre 2020 to 2021 price runs.. so at this time we might be barely getting back down into BTC price territories where for a short period of time initial BTC accumulation goals can reasonably get put back to 1 BTC (while supplies last) - and sure of course, we do not just get from 0 BTC to 1BTC.. so if you are starting from zero.. then maybe your initial BTc  accumulation goal should be to get to 0.1 BTC  then 0.21 BTC and then 0.5 BTC and then after that start working towards 1 BTC..

Sure ..maybe you have some abilities to stack BTC more rapidly.. but even if you get up to 1 BTC, there should be no reason to stop there.. so you just keep adding to it.. and maybe if you get up to 2 BTC or 3 BTC, you might start to tell yourself various quantities of BTC that you will never go below, even if you reach a new thresholds of BTC holdings that you mostly keep in your cold storage.. and if you draw upon them, you do so in a very reserved way because those funds are segregated from your play money and your working money.    


You sound like my ex-supervisor.

 

Emphasizing ex...




 


Yes!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the invitation...


Batslapping uie-pooie would be a very good start, and emotional relief (an emotional releasening) too..



No.


fuck that shit.

Let's talk about bitcoin... Have you heard of bitcoin?  It goes by other names as well, such as my lil precious and a few other descriptives.. Shitcoiners, scammers and false equivalency creators use the terms "crypto" but they tend to not specify what the fuck they are talking about .. hopefully you are not inviting those kinds of twats to our otherwise lovely and mostly on topic discussions in these here parts.....and we do not want to be devolving into comparing which shitcoin or which feature happens to be less shitty.. and largely irrelevant distracting and frequently hidden-agenda bullshit like that.

someone batslap that shitcoiner wannabe aka D_W if he wants to talk about which shitcoins happen to be less shitty in their false equivalency implications or other kinds of divergencies to our talking about what crappy food Arriemoller is planning to eat.


kind of.


To me, it just sounds bitter without the smart part.


Crypto means.. fuck off with that vague-ass nonsense. Are you talking about king daddy or not?  specify with ur wordiness por favor.  you wordy fuck    

Wrong, Jay.  I do crypto, first and foremost.

Crypto means cryptography.

If you don’t use PGP for your email, then you do NOT do crypto.

On the one end, Jay, you want to batslap anyone who says “crypto” to steal branding from Bitcoin...

...on the other, I want to batslap anyone who steals the word “crypto”.  I am bloody well sick and tired of ignoramuses speak the word “crypto”, when the only concept they have of “crypto” is chasing get-rich-quick moonshot VC-owned shitcoins staked for “passive income”, or whatever.  I care about crypto!

My crypto has not recently changed in value:  It still encrypts just fine.  My Chacha20 still dances.  My hashes still hash.  My elliptic curves are still elliptically curvy.

Oh, did someone want to talk about cryptocurrency?  That’s just one application of crypto, sort of like the Web is one application of the Internet.

(Does that sound bitter to you, Jay?  Maybe even “smart and bitter”?)



I now await a pedantic correction on how crypto means hidden.  Well, I would be impressed.  I don’t much expect it here.

Explanation

Even this is more entertaining:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbjzEkNM_YM

No.

Gawd...AI training facility, formerly known as WO.
Get to the f-n point (if you have one) in a few phrases, please.
Chop-chop.

Explanation

The best advice in the first 30,931 pages of the Wall Observer, Jay provided to me personally:

---

“To a Mouse”

Oh, my...

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 16, 2022, 06:42:19 PM

Quote from: ImThour on June 16, 2022, 10:09:24 AM

Haven't shared this with anyone who knows me IRL (though I have many Crypto Friends) and really wanted to share this with all of you.

I made a good amount of profits in Binance Futures (IK, Leverage trading is risky but I only did x3 for all the trades) just by believing on my own ideas and analysis.
I know this is not a big amount of money for many of you here but believe me, I have turned like $3k to $17k with just simple trades. The best being this week, a short from $31k to $22k.

I am no longer willing to invest a single dollar on leverage trading and have already invested good amount of money on buying the current correction.
Not a flex or something, just wanted to show everyone what you can achieve by believing in yourself.  

Ignore my handwriting though, spent most of my life being a keyboard warrior.

I was starting to contemplate that a course might be coming soon

Oh my.

 

I wasn’t paying attention to ImThour’s posts yesterday.  (Not ignoring him.  Just skimming WO.)

Wow.

Now, I better understand this personal attack which seemed to come out of nowhere:

Quote from: ImThour on June 13, 2022, 11:37:02 PM

Quote from: death_wish on June 13, 2022, 11:05:20 PM

* death_wish strokes Bitcoin’s hair gently, gently, whilst speaking in soothing tones.

Don’t worry, Bitcoin.  We still love you.  We will always love you.  Please don’t be so sad.

I want my bitcoins back.  To have and to hold.  Forever.

Can you just stfu now? Spammed the whole thread with your stupid posts about you getting fucked for using leverages and not going the safe route with just holding BTC when you don't know shit about Trading? I am done with you and your shit.

So irritating.

I suppose it was irritating, for someone who had been trading at 3x leverage:  A perpetual reminder of what could happen to him, with just a little touch of bad luck—one wrong move—one little mistake.

Guess what?  I started out at leverage much lower than 3x!  It is hard to give it an exact number, because I was keeping assets aside to cover if necessary; it was closer to 2x, with a plan for how to deleverage if anything went wrong.  Anyway, that is how it started!

Quote from: death_wish on June 14, 2022, 07:34:04 PM

Thus it came to pass that I almost got the opportunity to come to WO, and brag to y’all about how margin trading is sort of awesomely profitable sometimes for those blessed by the Goddess of Fortune.  But she is a fickle mistress, with a streak of cold cruelty.  Beware her temper.  If you think that Bitcoin is volatile, take pause to perpend her mood swings!  Accordingly, luck is absolutely the most volatile asset in the universe.

As such, if I had hypothetically come in here to brag about my lucky margin trade, Jay would have been perfectly justified to batslap me for being a gambler masquerading as an “investor”.

So, Jay:  I am a betting man!  I don’t have any money to bet right now; let’s call this a gentleman’s wager.

Do you want to bet with me on whether or not ImThour will quit while he’s ahead?  I think he won’t.  (You can insert your own analogies about drug addicts.)

The saddest part for me is that I care about Bitcoin so much that I refused to sell BTC when I should have.  Multiple times (only the last of which was on Heater’s advice, as you remember).  And I am against shorting Bitcoin, period (though I would not mind shorting the perp).  Now, ImThour has orders of magnitude more BTC than I do.  Life ain’t fair.  C’est la vie !

---

The death_wish Casino

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 16, 2022, 06:42:19 PM

Quote from: death_wish on June 16, 2022, 05:29:28 PM

Jay, does that make me a degen?  Or does it simply mean that I understand Gresham’s Law?

You can understand both concepts, but still fail/refuse to engage in behaviors that adequately/sufficiently account for your own particulars including sufficiently/adequately managing your risk including allowing your ego to get in the way.. and you gotta admit that you do seem to have a pretty BIGGEDly ego.. relatively speaking. #nohomo

 

I assuredly have by far the biggest ego of anyone here.  Or anywhere.

There are two kinds of people with huge egos:  The aggressive, domineering go-getters who achieve extreme success, and the losers who blow up their lives with arrogant stupidity.  One is rare; the other is commonplace.  A huge ego is what programmers call “necessary but not sufficient” for extreme success.  My understanding of this distinction perhaps may give me some chances here.

Speaking of chances, one of my longtime dreams is to open my own casino.  The crypto-gambling milieu has become so corrupt; it’s sad.  I fancy building an old-school Bitcoin dice site—of course, I don’t mind letting people bet their altcoins, too; the more gambling, the better!  I even have my own ideas for improving the state of the art in cryptographic Provably Fair gaming, and a few ideas for designing new games of chance.

I am naturally gifted with a big enough ego to be a hotshot casino magnate.  And I love the mathematics of gambling sufficiently to keep myself firmly on the EV+ side of every bet.  Gambling fascinates me.  I study gambling—mathematically; and I study gamblers—psychologically.

When I have significant BTC again, I would take pleasure in offering others the opportunity to win my BTC.  C’mon!  Don’t be shy!  Get lucky, and you can take my money!  I’m a good sport; and I would even enjoy making payouts.  I mean that sincerely.  Paying out to winners is what keeps ’em coming.  The casino must be fun, with lots of people winning lots of my BTC.  Keep ’em coming!

I am now highly motivated to work hard and build up a new BTC HODLing—so that I can bankroll payouts to winners!  A gambler’s dream is the big win.  It happens sometimes, and I am happy to give it to the winners.  My dream is to be the house:  The death_wish Casino.

How’s that for a gambling addiction?

---

Miscellaneous...

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 16, 2022, 06:42:19 PM

In the end, you do need to figure out the comfort level of those kinds of balances for yourself, and if you are comfortable with what you are doing and how you are approaching your various risk managing matters including the level upon which you are building for your future (if that might be something that you are considering to be an issue to have at least 1 BTC in your "cold storage" or whatever might be your goals).

Ironically, what most got me in trouble was a perverse manifestation of risk-aversion.  I do alts.  It will not surprise you to hear that I have sometimes lost BTC in alts.  Although I always managed the risk in a rational way, and I was overall quite profitable, I am mindful of the WO joke:  “Q: How do you make 10 BTC from alts?  A: Start with 150 BTC.”  It is hard to find alt opportunities to outrun BTC, even for awhile; and I have taken some losses.  By the time you hear about an altcoin that did 100x against BTC, or whatever, it is obviously too late to buy in:  That is the time to be taking BTC profits.

So, new plan—starting with a small amount of BTC:  Use BTC as collateral, borrow $, buy altcoin.  If the altcoin fails, use other means to pay down the depreciating dollars while keeping the appreciating BTC.  Great theory!  In theory, this avoids ever losing any BTC.

I tried a few things at once.  Getting clever with debt and leverage.  I thought I had it all figured out—all calculated so that I could cover any losses, and survive any realistically likely drops in the market.  My ultimate goal:  Never, ever spend any BTC again.

Always keeping at least 1 BTC in cold storage is a great idea.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 16, 2022, 06:42:19 PM

Part of the reason that I participate in this forum is to attempt to ongoingly figure out myself, and part of my own understanding of comfort will sometimes come through interacting with others, but I would not even claim to have it all worked out.. and maybe having to set my orders and reset them 6 times or more since we dropped below $35k.. (in early May) is evidence of some of my attempts to align and realign.. imperfect as it sometimes can be.

yes, there are other things going on in life too.. but you fucks have to quit posting so frequently in recent times... #justsaying (self-reflection of the pot calling the kettle black)

Well, I hope that our interactions provide plentiful opportunity for figuring.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 16, 2022, 06:42:19 PM

Quote from: PokestarFan on June 16, 2022, 06:29:24 PM

It's becoming evident that Bitcoin will keep on going up and down. Now the question is how low it will go before it starts going back up again. Although with a looming recession and shortages it would make sense for people to pull money out of Bitcoin and into real-world goods like food and housing.

I doubt that "makes sense" to very many people who actually know anything about bitcoin which may well just leave no coiners and you.. as the ones without bitcoin.

Beyond the basic prudence of keeping food in store, prepper-style, I fail to see how more or less perishable items are a good store of wealth.  Perhaps if you’re poor.  When you are on the brink of starvation, a store of food is more valuable than gold.  Is that PokestarFan’s plan?

Just musing aloud... funny how capital has been moving into housing for awhile, seeking a nonexistent safehaven as economies blow up with inflation...

Just musing aloud... funny that the “Great Crash” with effects memorialized in the Genesis Block was caused by a bubble in the housing market.  Speaking of leverage:  That was a hell of a leveraged bubble!  Subprime mortgages on overvalued real estate.  Wham!  The implosion of an overleveraged market took down big banks.  Ergo, bailouts...  Not saying it’s comparable to now—not saying it’s not—just musing aloud.

"We" (Royal perhaps?)  do not fuck around with "crypto" in these here parts?


right?


right?




rrrrrrrriiiiiigggggghhhhhhhttttttt?




Either you sleep or you don't sleep..


duh.

 


Ok.. fair enough.. Let me throw out a hypothetical that is just used to provide easily rounded numbers and to attempt to flesh out some ideas.. and just get some ideas about someone who just has decent cashflow coming in from various sources, so with your various cashflow sources, you cover all your monthly expenses and you end up having an average of an extra $1k per month coming in, and let's say that you ongoingly maintain something like a $10k extra floating balance in your various accounts that you can draw from at any time if your cashflow has various irregularities and you strive to get it back into balance by projecting 6-24 months into the future.   .. so then maybe on a monthly basis you get an additional 10% added to your spare cashflow and you can just route it into bitcoin, if that is what you want to do with that extra cashflow.

So with this kind of a hypothetical you could ongoingly continue to buy $1k every month of bitcoin and then structure it however you like or maybe $250 per week.. or you can allocate part of that amount for buying on dips and part to buy at whatever price (which would rise to the level of DCA).. At the same time, there can end up being some emphasis towards buying on dips and then stopping, slowing down and maybe even selling (perhaps relative small portions) on rips. 

It seems that the longer that any of us have been in BTC, then we figure out some systems that kind of work for us to attempt to be able to take advantage of the BIGGER BTC price swings...   buy more frequently or even more quantity when the BTC price is going down.. and don't buy as much when it is going up or maybe even selling some BTC when the price is going up.. but then perhaps at some point, there might be situations in which there is a feeling of having too much BTC, too.. if that is possible...?   perhaps?  perhaps? 

I get feelings on both ends, but like I mentioned in recent times, I may well feel that I do not have as much variety in my various cashflow sources.. perhaps I had shrunk some of those on purpose, too, but some of my involvement in projects can end up changing cashflow sources too.. and even to possibly increase some of the variety in cashflow sources depending on how much desire to get involved in generating cashflow.. if there are feelings of needs to increase it.  Perhaps?   

I shrunk some of my cashflow sources on purpose in the past too..  So sometimes there might be questions regarding how much set-up, supervisory, coordinating

Explanation

I am not going to answer that since it comes off as a trick question..

 


 



It's difficult to know how long we are going to be able to stay in the place that we are.. Surely where we are at is not sustainable for any kind of longer term, so we would need to either go up or down.  Of course, we could correct down to $17k or $18k and then bounce back to $20k and then get stuck around this price for a decently long time - even though a price of about $20,500-ish is still under the 200-Week Moving average by about 8% or so.   It is my sense we are not currently in a sustainable price arena... even though it could take 1-2 weeks to bounce one way or another and direction still remains unclear to me.


Yeah.. it is kind of cute that you are able to consider various sizes of BTC wealth - but it seems that you are in a liquidation phase of your bitcoin journey rather than what I would speculate should be your being in a BTC accumulation stage...In other words, the size of your BTC wealth seems to be going in the wrong direction.. and really, if you do have some kind of cashflow, then it would likely be a good thing to figure out some kind of way to get some kind of DCA strategy going.... however, in the end, I am not sure how you get your BTC, even though it would be nice if you could find someone  or some way with whom you could buy BTC regularly.. but whatever, you have some kind of a seemingly weird relationship with cash anyhow.. which frequently in these days seems to end up getting people like you overly-exposure into shitcoin/scam circles because somehow you have locked yourself out of what would otherwise be practical and potentially prudent ways to ongoingly accumulate BTC on a regular basis through cash or something like that.. and yeah you seem to be allergic to cash.. hahahahaha and allergic in terms of living any kind of "normal" life too... hahahaha..


You fuck.

Trying to inspire depression.


hahaha

Had to laugh at that one.. you jealous dweeb.. aka Save the RF.   

nope wish it was.

Explanation

As long as fiat exists in some substantial form, I think I will always have some sort of fiat revenue (job/business/real estate/retirement/etc), so barring catastrophic health failure or other life-altering events - yes, I can ride it pretty much to zero. Not that I'm planning that. Right now for example I'm just setting up an order for 10% of my free cash ~10% below spot, I don't give two shits about TA or some other woodoo, when the orders hits or price moves in the other direction I redo the order, etc. So even if it drops precipitously and quickly, I won't really run out of cash albeit the buys can get smaller.

All-in, or margin, or any of that tarding nonsense - nah. I'm happy to leave that to shitcoiners, Reddit gamestoppers, and other noobs itching to get fucked by Wall Street.

I'm bored. Going to bed early.

Let's see what happens...

https://imgur.com/gallery/bqGpIOt

WAIT! Is this a thing? Cuz if I can dig and get BTC's... I'm tempted. What's the cost per coin? All sweat equity? Where do I sign?

must be @a1 Hashrate LLC2022/@philipma1957 wallet....