Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3402. (Read 26713881 times)

i have since diverted some cash to more btc buys. did 25% spot at 21k, have 25% at 19.6k (prev ath), 25% at 18.2k and 25% at 17k

but if it instead goes uppity in any meaningful way in the next few weeks i will likely delete those and do 50% spot at that time (whatever it is) and the other 50% at a couple points (25% each) a bit under that to catch any further downsies. if it still goes uppity or sideways for a while at that point i will likely pull the trigger on a spot buy again.

when im out of cash or a couple months go by with no real action ill reassess for the next period.

now, as you mention, if it just keeps going down and down and down.. well i intend to make a fairly impressive crater for my troubles.

and thats about as hands on as i tend to get nowadays. nap time.

https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1537273154653106179?s=21&t=3YYPEFrrPLr5dVC9j6nbcA

Explanation

i like big bottoms and i can not lie

On the face, what you have done seems to be a pretty hands-off approach, and gosh at these prices, hopefully we have enough cash in reserves.. otherwise we may well have to sell some bitcoin merely because some expense or funzies thingies coms up.. or we want to live rather than wait around in terms of some purchases that we might want to make. whether they could be put off or not.. even though it may well have been preferable to just wait it out... and go into a kind of wait until theBTC  price goes up .. but does it matter if we have some kind of an expense that we would like to cash out a bit.. just because we can?

 and some of us might not even be very price sensitive.. you might be somewhat better than me.. if you are thinking that your costs per BTC is either in the lower three digits or even in the two digits.. but I am thinking that I am better off just to presume that my costs per BTC are around $1k even though realistically I am likely just playing with house money at this time, anyhow.. but still I tend to like to create a kind of frame work for myself and to just like to consider $1k as my expense base.. just to try to keep myself in check and not get too carried away with any kind of BTC spending spree... just because I can

On the margin.., we must be entering into these kinds of calculations to either HODL or to error n the side of buying BTC at these prices and not to get into any kind of meaningful selling situation..

so let's say for example, we had ladder buys all the way down to $28k-ish.. and we thought that $28k... would be the bottom.. but we had one or two saving grace BTC buy orders down to $24.5k.. so then in some sense we have run out of money that had been authorized for buying back BTC, but for me, I ran out of the money that had already been authorized for BTC buys when getting towards the lower $20ks.. but I added to my authorized amounts.

maybe I am talking somewhat out of my own experience because surely we may well be similar in the sense of having had considered BTC buy orders below $28k were not very likely to fill.. but then now we are in a space where they did fill... and you just left everything alone, and I set up some more BTC buy orders to buy lower.. or continue to buy on further dips, if they come, even though I had not previously authorized that money for BTC buys.

From my point of view, it is a bit of a dilemma - because I could just go into a kind of HODL status . . and then NOT use any of that previously not-authorized cash for further BTC buys, in the event that the BTC price dips more.. which may or may not happen.. down to $18k or $19k?  50/50   hard to say...   Maybe it is just fun for me, and there is some kind of optionality to keep the buy orders going.. perhaps?  perhaps?  There is a kind of thrill to never run out of buy orders.. I will admit that part. but it probably is ONLY really objectively fun if the BTC price ends up bouncing back.. if it never bounces back (like Peter Schiff keeps telling us) those of us who keep buying BTC all the way down are really fucked, no?

LMAO.... wow, you would have to be some sort of feckelss sap, to , decide to buy Doge, and then, after , as the trade has not worked out on your timeframe, to decide to try and attempt to blame someone else. Like Elon MADE you press the buy button with a gun to your head, and then MADE you decide to not sell later..... or, just hold until it does whatever it does next. So lame, I would guess this does not stand a chance at going anywhere.... though could be spikey for Elon to deal with.


Losers, on more level than one.


Little bitches lol "elon made me do it dhurrrrrrrrrrrrr" lmao , I mean , how could you even face the shame of uttering those words out loud.... like bro/sis, you should instantly give up your access rights to the internet for your own safety, you poor poor thing.

Will it be a big bottom or a little bottom?

TANSTAAFL


I think that I should change my forum name to “TANSTAAFL”.

A.

The buy-and-hold strategy does not give a free lunch:  HODLers pay every day for their future wealth, in the time value of money.  HODL incurs opportunity costs.  HODL also embraces long-term fundamental risks; long-term risks are the cost of easily avoiding short-term risks on the irrationality of the markets.

Many nocoiners are jealous of Bitcoiners who get rich.  They fail to account for the costs paid by HODLers in time value of money, in opportunity costs, in long-term risks, and even in the personal discipline of not selling.

Early Bitcoiners who bought BTC at $1 and held it have paid the cost, and taken the risk, of not taking profits at $10, $100, $1,000, $10,000, $67,000, and every number in between.  Meanwhile, they are sitting on their liquidity instead of using it for other purposes.  Jealous nocoiners should STFU.

From intelligent strategies (ignoring gamblers’ moon-shots), the polar opposite of HODL is HFT.  Time = risk.  HFT minimizes time-dependent risks, by holding for as little as a few milliseconds—it minimizes path-dependent risks, by keeping the paths negligibly short.

HFT is highly profitable; HFT trading firms turn $billions into more $billions.  Of course, the catch is that you grossly lack their knowledge, their trade-secret algorithms, their high-performance computing equipment (some run trading algorithms on FPGAs to reduce latency), and their low-latency connections to the exchange.  The shortest-term trading runs on such short time scales that the speed of light in a glass fiber is a significant factor; accordingly, HFT trading firms tend to locate themselves physically close to the exchange, with a leased line running directly into the exchange.  Forget about using the Internet for that!  Even for cryptocurrency trading over the Internet at slightly longer time scales, anything that could qualify as “HFT” requires high costs to optimize for latency.  It cannot be done on a home Internet connection (never mind when Tor, VPN, etc. gets involved).

Garden-variety short-term traders are stuck in between.  They get the worst of both worlds, plus many other problems.  And because all trading is a zero-sum game, the amateurs only exist for the purpose of giving their money to the pros.  Do you suppose that you can compete with HFT bots, or with quantitative traders generally?  Do you have a maths degree?

Now, we turn to considering margin.

B.

I have learned by hard experience:  Margin necessitates short-term thinking.  Margin is incompatible with the HODL mindset.

Look at the notional chart quoted by bitebits.  The path-dependence is time-dependence.  The chart contains many short paths that would be profitable on margin—highly profitable.  The catch is, of course, that this requires the risk of trying to time the market.  TANSTAAFL!  If you want ridiculously high leveraged profits, then you need to take ridiculously high risks—and keep the risks as short-term as you can, because time compounds risk by lengthening the path between your start state and your end state.

Now, I should batslap Jay for pretending that he has anything to teach me about how to think as a HODLer.  I got wrecked because I have a HODL mindset.  I got wrecked because I tried to HODL a leveraged long.  I have said many times here:  I could have exited in the late March/early April pump at $47k—I could have exited with more BTC than I started with!

This does not mean that margin trading works.  I narrowly missed getting liquidated several times before that; and the worst near-misses required skillful loss-management to avoid getting wiped out in February.  Meanwhile, I was hemorrhaging other assets—including things that I dearly wanted to keep, just not as dearly as BTC.

It means that I got lucky.  Lucky.  Lucky in a bad situation, when I was already at high fully realized losses.  And I failed to take the lucky exit, because I am too much of a HODLer.

I could see only what Bitcoin would be in >= 6–8 years.  Accordingly, each BTC in my account looked to me like >$1 million.  Sell a big chunk at $47k to cover debt?  WTF?

That “path dependence” neatly summarizes my error:  I expect a long, volatile path to million-dollar bitcoins.

Thus it came to pass that I almost got the opportunity to come to WO, and brag to y’all about how margin trading is sort of awesomely profitable sometimes for those blessed by the Goddess of Fortune.  But she is a fickle mistress, with a streak of cold cruelty.  Beware her temper.  If you think that Bitcoin is volatile, take pause to perpend her mood swings!  Accordingly, luck is absolutely the most volatile asset in the universe.

As such, if I had hypothetically come in here to brag about my lucky margin trade, Jay would have been perfectly justified to batslap me for being a gambler masquerading as an “investor”.

C.

That path-dependence reminds me of some of my other margin-trading experiences in the past five months.

Besides some leveraged longs in alts that failed long ago, I have mentioned somewhere in my prior posts that I desperately tried short-term trading to pay off debt.  Due to my attachment to BTC, it had to be alts—better yet, specific alts which I despise, about which I have no compunctions in selling or shorting to reap dollar profits off their markets.  Of course, I was in a position in which I needed to use margin for that—cross-margin against my BTC; and since I was desperate, I used way too much leverage to try to make money fast.  Desperate people do desperate things!

I actually do know a thing or two about trading.  I did TA.  I made some good calls, seeking to catch the short portions of potential short-term profitability in that notional “path dependence” graph.  At that point, I did try at least a little bit to limit my risks:  Nothing too spectacular—either basic channel trading, or in-and-out long/short in an obvious pump/crash.  Where I tried something that I thought was just too risky, I hedged with a cash-settled option in the opposite direction.  Although I would not claim to be a trading expert, and I did make some clumsy mistakes, I am assuredly not a n00b.

I made some sweet profits.  Profits on leverage!  Whittled down the massive debt trapping my BTC.

Then, I took some much larger losses.  My losses were compounded by unpredictable circumstances outside my control, which stopped me from stopping losses timely.  I was forced to cover ASAP, to avoid cross-margin liquidation of my BTC.  Thanks to high leverage, unrecoverable debt piled up fast enough to make my head spin.

Still, I managed to cling to my BTC for a few more months (!).

Newbies are lambs to the slaughter.

D.

I have barely even begun to describe how margin forces short-term thinking.

This also relates to my thoughts on money at rest versus money in motion.

But this post is long enough for now.

Conclusions

Although there may be some variations and other ways, I see two classic strategies to make reliable profits in “crypto”:

Long-term holding:  Buy BTC for cash.  HODL.  Understand very clearly that due to the path-dependence illustrated in bitebits’ quote of @10kdiver from Twitter, “HODL” and margin do not mix!

Short-term trading:  Start by being born with an IQ >= 3 S.D. above mean.  Next, attain a university degree in mathematics; and study quantitative finance.  The rest will follow.  If you attempt the shortcut of learning TA from some huckster on the Internet, prepare to be direly impoverished when your luck runs out.  It will probably hit you much worse, much sooner, if you use margin.

One way trades the time value of money for the safety of money at rest, and avoids short-term risks by depending on long-term fundamentals.  It requires the ability to buy BTC, and to avoid panic-selling.

The other way relies on keeping money in motion.  The requirements list is much higher.  The risks of failing to meet those requirements are extreme.

Take your pick!

* Jesus christ, google sucks so much i can't even find a decent lol image.

Explanation

That's decently aggressive.

Anyone considering themselves to be in a BTC accumulation phase.. a no coiner or a low coiner should be employing at least $100 weekly at these times if they can afford it.. and if you are going 2x to 3x of that amount for the next 10 weeks, that does not seem bad at all.


Slaying the bearwhale happened in early October 2014.... yes 30k BTC were sold at $300 . .and then there was a relatively short recovery where many folks were claiming victory, and then a month or so later, we went back below $300 and stayed below $300 for a year... throughout 2015.


We talk about BTC spot price all the time, and it seems important to have some kind of common reference, especially if trying to communicate with people in regards to how they might be able to figure out how they want to treat their possible accumulation of bitcoin and allocation of bitcoin in relation to their other possible investments.. including how they are going to attempt to reasonably manage their risk..   Allocation of risk,, and deciding various strategies is best founded in concrete considerations rather than some theoretical abstractions that may be true, but are not helpful in terms ofr various priorities that people want to set and attempt to follow in order to attempt to help themselves to get to places that they would like to be   both in terms of finances and psychology.- starting from where they are at and what resources they have available.


I am having some troubles figuring out how relevant those practices might be in regards to bitcoin-related discussions.. nothing wrong with figuring out various ways that you might be able to make money.. there are a lot of ways to do that.. some better than others, for sure.


Whatever you did adds up to the same thing as going all in, if you end up losing most if not all of your BTC.. so I doubt details matter very much in terms of the point that I was making about only gambling with small portions of your BTC holdings.. something like 10%.. or something like that.... which should attempt to account for worse case scenarios.. which does not mean that merely because a worse case scenario develops that now all of a sudden you have ended up increasing your 10% gambling limit to 99.5%



Probably the only material and substantive detail that matters is that you choose to enter into that situation in the first place.. subsequent details likely do not matter.. except maybe if there might have been times/opportunities that you might have been able to extract ur lil selfie from a shitty situation that you should have not entered into in the first place.

There are not very many guys (or gal) in these here parts who have much if any sympathy for margin players.. to the extent that any of us even really understand it sufficiently enough to appreciate that there might be ways that it could be used prudently rather than engaging in degenerate gambling.


I doubt whether you are a newbie or not matters very much.

Sure there might be some educating pieces that may help some members to decide not to get involved in margin trading or that you might provide evidence to make them feel better about their decision not to get involved in margin trading... or maybe you even make some folks feel better about themselves i some ways.. hahahaha ...so sure, there could be some possibilities that you might be providing some kind of potential service here by providing details for what many of us may well have already concluded to be the obvious things not to do or to get involved in.. perhaps? perhaps.. ?  


You seem to be making some different points than what I had been making.

Once anyone figures out that they have a goal to acquire BTC, and they figure out their target BTC level (or percentage of their quasi-liquid investment portfolio) that they would like to aim for, then they figure out some strategies to work towards reaching their initial target level, and they might well figure that it is to their advantage to adjust their target and/or their means in striving towards achieving it along the way.  

People should be able to figure out these kinds of visionary and application matters tailored to wards their own circumstances, and surely some aspects of considering what to do upon reaching entry-level fuck you status becomes quite a bit more concrete after building for a while to hopefully continue to work on getting closer to that fuck-you status level, if that might be a kind of higher level goal that any of us might have for our lil selfies.  

In several senses, we are going to get caught up in working on more immediate goals rather than the further out goals, even though we should be attempting to consider whether carrying out practices to attempt to achieve our more immediate goals has decently good chances of continuing to bring us closer towards reaching our further out goals... and we should be able to create tools to measure progress in these kinds of matters, whether being able to see the progress towards reaching shorter term goals or further out goals.. and we may well see periods of lack of progress or even some effects of mistakes along the way.. which frequently, the mere fact that we made mistakes does not necessarily mean that we should change our strategy in BIGGedly ways.. even though we might well want to learn from our various and likely mistakes (we should be skeptical of anyone who portrays themselves as not making mistakes).. and many times doubling down to try to make up for mistakes is a formula for disaster and degenerate gambling rather than really helping to bring some assurance towards increasing the likelihood of reaching various short/medium/long-term goals that we might outline for ourselves and accounting for our personal circumstances (and need to informedly tweak various aspects along the way, too).

[quote author=death_wish link=topic=178336.msg60372668#msg60372668 date=1655367755
Not that I have anything against someone who DCAs $10/week; and for many people, that is the only way!  Please do not misinterpret me as insulting people who have little, and who scrape together holdings sat by sat.  It is admirable; and I damn well know what that type of life position is like!  But it is irrelevant, in considering someone of at least moderately affluent means who is serious about BTC.
[/quote]

There surely are som advantages in BTC to even be able to buy such small amounts. .if that might be somethin gthat works for someone who is struggling to put together even small amounts , such as $10 per week.


Yes.. it could be risky to going all in.. and sure someone like CZ was going all into BTC in a variety of ways, especially when creating a business around BTC too (later shitcoins, as well).

For sure, we can make decision regarding how to spend our time and energies including figuring out what stage of life we are at in terms of some of our working skills and if we might be able to get into some BTC-related working activities or maybe earn our money in other ways (maybe we are already heavily invested in a non-BTC career that earns a decent amount of money.. so in some sense we are diversified buy having that non-BTC kind of work.. but then still a question still might continue to linger whether to believe that such non-BTC work serves some individual purposes, and for sure some jobs have vested interests that continue to pay off too especially upon completing certain thresholds of time in service and/or other opportunities that individuals would need to consider for themselves and their own circumstances.


I suppose that I was just trying to bring some clarification in regards to some of my prior references and attempted methods for attempting to project fuck-you status potentialities into the future.

I am not very comfortable with snap-shot sit on my hands projections for the vast majority of normies who we might consider to be able to continue to work towards building (or maintaining or spending), so it seems that in the vast majority of circumstances there should be some abilities and even desires to do more than just lump-sum-it and forget it for 7.5 years-ish.   Yet.. of course, there are some guys who do set their strategies around lump-sum-it and forget it, and sometimes there might some other situation  in which lump-sum-it and forget it mighty  end up happening such as the man in the coma, or getting put in jail, losing ones wallet and finding it later, lump sum locking away some value for a kid for when they turn 21 or whatever other age that would apply.  

By the way, I find a DCA strategy to be less offensive in terms of set it and forget it, but still there may be some justification to look at any DCA set up once a quarter or once a year or so in order to attempt to be somewhat conscious of what is happening with your monies on a regular basis, and whether there might be some need to adjust such DCA amounts, or frequency based on possible changed circumstance or to reflect upon if circumstances have sufficiently changed or not.



I know that we are humans here (except you are either a dog or a cat), but still, it does not seem to be a good way of dealing with matters to get emotional about them, whether it is the markets or your own situation... yes.. I understand that sometimes things do not go like we would haver preferred.. and in the end, maybe I am just referring to your internet posture and how you are choosing to write about your situation.. because maybe in the end, we do need to cry our asses off and maybe break a few dishes or go chew on our neighbors shoe.. but still.. do we need to say those things?.. I don't know.. whatever.. you do you.


You might be correct that I was not fair.  I think that my last reloading of the software update was a little bit more of a "BIG meanie" version... My handlers were suggesting that overall I had been interacting too nicedly... If I start whining, then they will really start to fuck with me, so I hesitate to tread too much on their zeros and ones  tweakenings choices.

These financial "instruments" are created with one single purpose - to allow bankster sell bitcoins without having a single satoshi. This is what a "regulated" market means - you can sell something you don't have (like bitcoins) if you deposit margin collateral of something you have (like dollars).

Either both approved (10% chance) or both rejected (90%).
The only reason for 10% is that many people in Congress are starting to get pissed off by Mr. G (or so it seems), so he might throw us/them a bone, so to speak.

Hopefully they will all get rejected due to "volatile market" reasons, otherwise I'd only anticipate further downside with ETFs launching during a bear market. Remember CME/CBOE launch in December 2017? You can see it on the BTC1! chart. It launched at the top of the market and the market was shorted. Then remember when Bakkt futures launched in September 2019, price dumped by 50% afterwards. Possible due to the bearish setup, but still. None of these "financial instruments" are good in the short-term during a downtrend, even if beneficial in the long-run. It will only drag prices further down imo.

I'm just going on previous experiences of Futures/ETP launches, they have all had bearish consequences as investors attempt to short Bitcoin to 0.

Explanation

I guess the upside of the massive economic recession that we just entered and continued inflation, (which the central banks won't be able to control!), is by the time we get to the next bull run (I reckon 2025 ish) is that 20K, 50K will look like peanuts. A bit like 2K-5K in yesterday's money.

Another bonus will be I reckon much of the green policy nonsense will be dropped completely.

No mandatory EV by 2030 and no mandatory heatpump.

People will tell politicians to shove them right up their dirty rectums.

ooooh a bottom calling contest!

19k usd. yup. thats it. called it. cuz reasons.

Bitwise - NO, GBTC - there is a 1% chance. The reasons GBTC has a chance are several - 1. They are practicaly operating as spot ETP already and have any needed documentation and requirements fulfilled. 2. There are over 10 000 comments on their proposal, which has never happened in the history of ETF, I think, 3. SEC allowed futures ETF on an article which is also for the spot ETF. This means that they have no excuse if they refuse on the grounds of manipulation. Greyscale hired some good lawyers and they will sue SEC if they don't get the approval. Gary Gensler is a bankers sock puppet of course, but facing a trial against him that could reveal he is corrupt and a hypocrite, can make him think twice before hitting the red button again.

Explanation