Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 377. (Read 26713548 times)
October 13, 2024, 01:46:50 AM
So far we are going pretty close to 2013-2017 cycle, which means that we could witness anything between 70k (bearish scenario) and 100-110k (bullish scenario) before the end of the year. Regarding the top, I have an impression the rise is going to be pretty sharp and violent but also very short and easy to miss (days, maybe even hours). Time-wise it could happen anywhere between September 2025 and December 2025. We could reach something like $150-160k (bearish) and $250-300k (bullish scenario). That's what my old permabull gut feeling is telling me....
October 13, 2024, 01:43:04 AM
Another try
The centerpiece tree from the garden in the first image - a ceiba speciosa - is native to tropical and sub-tropical regions of South America. It's possible to grow in other places but based on the timing of your posts, I'm guessing you must be on my side of the world.
Also, some of the architectural elements on the hotel are embossed with the fleur de lis which makes me think there is a connection to France so maybe Argentina?
And then there's this clue - also from your second post -
I've never seen a safety pylon that looks like that. It's a beautiful hotel wherever it is!
October 13, 2024, 01:01:18 AM
October 13, 2024, 12:49:48 AM
sold some....but not bitcoin.
Freaking renovation...what a money waste!
it seems that corn is currently ignoring ME.
Good!
Saylor is counting
on leverage for success:
corn agrees, for now
UTC Sunday time haiku
Freaking renovation...what a money waste!
it seems that corn is currently ignoring ME.
Good!
Saylor is counting
on leverage for success:
corn agrees, for now
UTC Sunday time haiku
I have some construction work going on too.. and my bills are coming soon.. I am not sure exactly how much they are all going to be, but I have some ballpark ideas.
I think I have enough cash to cover everything.. I am pretty sure... If I fall short, I just would likely take some of my cash from my currently existing outstanding buy orders that are all the way down to $26k.. They are every $1k, so taking one or two of them would serve as a kind of back up funds in case what I have does not cover everything.. and I am thinking that I am not going to need those buy orders below $30k-ish.. even though in my recent practice I like to try to keep buy orders down to 35% below the 200-WMA.. which might be overkill, but that is still down to $26k-ish, since the 200WMA is currently almost $40k. Even in the pretty bad scenarios.. perhaps even the worst .. of course, the worst, scenario would be that I would need them.. but that would mean that we are surprisingly in a bear market rather than a bull market.. so in that sense it seems pretty low percentage that we are even touching the 200-WMA any time soon, even perhaps lower than 15% that we would go below $35k.. even a spike dip.. and quasi-black swan.. .
October 13, 2024, 12:46:07 AM
Something interesting...MSTR is up 14% today while bitcoin is up 6.2%.
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.
Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?
Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.
Not an investment advice!
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.
Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?
Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.
Not an investment advice!
You are not the first coming up with this idea. I wonder how Kerrisdale is doing with MSTR at a fresh ATH.
https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MicroStrategy-MSTR.pdf
Well, the strategies outlined were different: he was talking about actually shorting MSTR and I was describing buying the 2X reverse ETF (that would increase 2x the MSTR's presumable decline toward NAV).
That said, it is entirely possible that btc would go to 150-160K shortly and close the NAV gap for MSTR.
It's just paying 2.6-2.7 bucks NOW for something that has $1 value strikes me as an aberration or collective insanity, but, sure, it might continue for a while.
However, as the link you posted suggests, the NAV gap would most likely to halve toward 1.3X.
Today, buying MSTR at $212.5 is essentially the same as voluntarily paying $155K for 1 btc.
The enterprise value of MSTR (non-bitcoin part) is about $10/share (as it was at this level, split adjusted, for years before trasformation to bitcoin holding company)
Finally, it was just a theoretical construct...I remain just long btc and ignore MSTR "funnies" for now.
Not here to make a case investing in Microstrategy and would recommend the self custody of your bitcoin. At the moment a premium is justified though; if you bought MSTR in January this year you now own +24% more bitcoin per share. That trend, next to a number of other factors, is worth a premium. How much and for how long is what the market is trying to figure out.
October 13, 2024, 12:01:14 AM
October 12, 2024, 11:01:15 PM
October 12, 2024, 10:01:17 PM
October 12, 2024, 09:57:54 PM
A poignant haiku?
Standalone lines, no run-ons
And just one haiku
#haiku
#meta-haiku
Standalone lines, no run-ons
And just one haiku
#haiku
#meta-haiku
October 12, 2024, 09:01:14 PM
October 12, 2024, 08:01:14 PM
October 12, 2024, 07:44:50 PM
sold some....but not bitcoin.
Freaking renovation...what a money waste!
it seems that corn is currently ignoring ME.
Good!
Saylor is counting
on leverage for success:
corn agrees, for now
UTC Sunday time haiku
Freaking renovation...what a money waste!
it seems that corn is currently ignoring ME.
Good!
Saylor is counting
on leverage for success:
corn agrees, for now
UTC Sunday time haiku
October 12, 2024, 07:01:17 PM
October 12, 2024, 06:51:33 PM
Another try
Cyprus
Merit Royal Diamond Hotel & SPA?
EDIT:
Definitely a Merit resort Hotel. Not sure about the location (yet)
October 12, 2024, 06:19:43 PM
Another try
October 12, 2024, 06:14:10 PM
Where the Dude @
I don't know why, but my first thought was North Korea.
Eerily empty and devoid of human life with a soulless architecture, yet spotlessly clean and the fauna/mountains setting seem to give off that 'enjoy the view, but you cannot leave' feeling.
October 12, 2024, 06:01:20 PM
October 12, 2024, 05:55:36 PM
Something interesting...MSTR is up 14% today while bitcoin is up 6.2%.
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.
Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?
Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.
Not an investment advice!
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.
Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?
Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.
Not an investment advice!
You are not the first coming up with this idea. I wonder how Kerrisdale is doing with MSTR at a fresh ATH.
https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MicroStrategy-MSTR.pdf
Well, the strategies outlined were different: he was talking about actually shorting MSTR and I was describing buying the 2X reverse ETF (that would increase 2x the MSTR's presumable decline toward NAV).
That said, it is entirely possible that btc would go to 150-160K shortly and close the NAV gap for MSTR.
It's just paying 2.6-2.7 bucks NOW for something that has $1 value strikes me as an aberration or collective insanity, but, sure, it might continue for a while.
However, as the link you posted suggests, the NAV gap would most likely to halve toward 1.3X.
Today, buying MSTR at $212.5 is essentially the same as voluntarily paying $155K for 1 btc.
The enterprise value of MSTR (non-bitcoin part) is about $10/share (as it was at this level, split adjusted, for years before trasformation to bitcoin holding company)
Finally, it was just a theoretical construct...I remain just long btc and ignore MSTR "funnies" for now.
October 12, 2024, 05:01:15 PM
October 12, 2024, 04:52:35 PM
Just finished Money Electric The Bitcoin Mystery, literally nothing we didn't already know and pushing the Todd theory which is completely laughable.
I kind of enjoyed it.
Even though I don't think that Todd is Satoshi, I think the documentary was well produced. It was fun getting to know adam3us a bit more, he seems like a decent guy. I also liked how they concluded that CSW is a fraud. Every time he's being outed for the fraudster he is, I'm happy.
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