Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3939. (Read 26710757 times)

Little disappointed with new Batman movie

First half absolutely good,
Second half little less imho.

 You talk like a person who hasn't waited 4 years between halvenings to see the moon again!

Explanation

Who would want to live never going out under the night sky again?
Give me the quick flash of light thank you.

one graph is a free market, another-first, a scare, then artificial money printing pump.
which one is which? /s
Continuation?

 I think you qualify - http://www.theoppidum.com/  

You are amongst the highest levels of dweeb, no?

Entry-level fuck you status, which is what AlcoHoDL was referring to gives the option to quit your job, if you like... and hopefully being able to maintain at least the same standard of living without a job.. Of course, each person sets their own conditions for fuck you status and even entry-level fuck you status, but a common understanding would be that entry-level would just be able to quit your job and to be able to live some kind of similar level of living in a perpetually sustainable way off of the BTC stash (or whatever other equivalent measures of wealth that are accurately calculated to be equivalent).

If you want to accomplish some of those other goals, you need to be higher than entry-level fuck you status.. that should be clear enough to anyone with an actual brain..


 

Acceptable losses is the term you need to know in order to google the calculations that go into that algo.

Fun fact USA acceptable losses percentage is much higher than USSR's was.  I have no clue what Putins is.

There are some very precise numbers out there that boils down to how much of each profession needs to survive.

Also those survivors must be in certain categories as they must be young enough to train the next generation and so forth.  Those guys spent a long time getting the number down to a science and they take those numbers into account when figuring out what they can depreciate as newer tech is added.

Yeah.. I am sure that was one of the most closely watched launches from several places in the world at once...  whew

As to mutually assured destruction.,

1.  It would take madness for Putin to do a nuke strike, and the agreementr enough of his people to pull it off.  I comfort myself with that.
2.  This whole thing is a show, and a way to wreck the dollar (as well as the ruble, pound and so on.) and bring in digital IDs/Wallets and CDBCs. 

THAT is what I think this is about.  We are seeing history made before our eyes gentlemen, and it is hard right now to know how the story will be told.  Because that totally depends on the outcome.

must be a pretty good pucker moment launching weather sats right now no?  positive launch and sep..completed burn into a parking orbit. wtg NASA
GOES-T

Atlas V and the RD-180 with SRB's at full roar

Explanation

To be clear, we're absolutely fucked if this thing goes nuclear.

I was just trying to be technically correct, as to my understanding of countermeasures.

Just believe in the best (while ordinary people cover the rear). 

Yeah.. I don't believe that we are stuck, either...

Time will tell.


You are coming off as a bit of a party-poop, Bunny.

Hookers, Lambos and blow is largely just symbolic as a kind of level of extravagance.

It surely may well be true that entry-level fuck you status may well not allow for such but if you get to multiples of fuck you status (beyond entry-level) then by definition, you have way more money then you need or what was in your budget.  Remember fuck you status is the level that you set for yourself, so reaching it is one thing that may well allow you to quit your job and completely live off your passive income (such as your BTC), but reaching multiple-levels of fuck you status, thereby doubles, triples, quadruples or more  the budget that you have already set for yourself, so you not only could add one of the extravagances, but several of them in which you are not calculating whether or not they are a good value and presumptively they are mostly a consumption good rather than any kind of value-retaining good.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/

for people without radio at home

3809 kHz USB - what's that?

That seems far from exhaustive of possibilities.. but hey what do I know?

Another thing is that devil's in the details, so even if you may have broadly described something that could happen, the level of vague does not really capture how it plays out.. including various levels in which the conflict affects outside regions. or the extent to which outside regions are able to assist and what outside regions actually do in that direction...and how Russia might react to that.


I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying.. and your 10 BTC in 2026 does seem more than reasonable..  My chart from December 28 shows fuck you status getting below 10 BTC by late 2025.. so yeah.. maybe you have already attempted to be more conservative with trajectory expectations.

yet, I remain somewhat squirmy about my own chart because I do believe that we are going to have to taper our future projections of the 200-week moving average a wee bit in order to attempt to be realistic that exponential growth cannot really be an ongoing straight line.. and to attempt to capture that it has to start to taper.. even if we are tending to continue with a projection that is not far off of a round 75% per year ongoing UPpity in the 200-week moving average...

By the way, you likely already know that I do not have any problem with guys shaving off some dollars on the way up, and I have had my own formula for years regarding worse case scenarios regarding how much to be able to feel comfortable to shave off and to still be making ongoing profits in BTC.. and mostly rolling over profits.  100 BTC is such a good number to work with, so it is possible that I am going to be stuck with that number for a while, even if guys are going to be on both side of that number.. it is nice and round.

So anyhow, clearly having 100BTC into fuck you status can start to show us how we can work that number to our advantage in terms of better understanding how much BTC we can attempt to shave off if we are starting to want to spend within our fuck you status.

Once you get to fuck you status, even if it is entry-level, you should be able to more comfortably start to shave off value, and there are several components, but let's just take the proposition that every time the BTC price goes up $1k, if you have at least 100 BTC (current entry-level fuck you status), then the value of your portfolio goes up $100k... so I have frequently asserted that if you have a goal to continue to roll over profits, then the maximum that you could shave off would be 50% of the profits, which would be $50k for every $1k price increase in the BTC price.

At the same time, I have also attempted to personally stay way below those maximum shaving numbers, even when I am attempting to be fairly aggressive regarding an amount of dollar value that I might want to get out, so frequently my authorization numbers for shaving profits for myself have tended to be between 5% to 10% of the profits and from time to time at most 25%, so in this case, we can easily calculate those numbers to be authorizing the shaving off of value in the ballpark of $5k, $10k or $25k for every $1k that the BTC price goes up until maybe reaching our maximum withdrawal amount for the period or whatever other goals that we might have concerning withdrawing BTC value (dollars from BTC).  

Let's say for example that a hypothetical guy has reached the 100 BTC fuck you level that is currently being measured as entry-level under the 200-week moving average valuation system ($20k), and such guy has decided that he would like to withdraw $100k per year of value from his BTC holdings to provide for his lifestyle or to supplement whatever cash flow that he might have.  

I will assert that currently considering $100k per year of withdrawal from such 100 BTC stash is considerably within perpetually sustainable because with BTC we are likely able to use up to 12% per year of your 200-week moving average, even though 4% per year has traditionally been used for traditional asset valuations.  4% of the 200 week moving average would actually be $80k per year.. but I will argue that such $80k (4%) is way too conservative because the 200-week moving average has been moving up 75% per year since at least 2012/2013, and even a withdrawal rate of 12% per year would be sustainable.. which would put the maximum sustainable amount of withdrawal for our current 100BTC holder at $240k per year, and this particular hypothetical withdrawal rate situation we are ONLY planning to withdraw $100k per year (less than 1/2 the maximum).

I am not going to beat this point to death, but I do believe that currently, $100k per year withdrawal of anyone at an entry-level fuck you status of 100 BTC is well within reasonably perpetually sustainable, and likely such a person who is engaged in such a withdrawal rate of $100k (and having 100 BTC) is likely going to need to up his/her BTC/dollar withdrawal rate level in future years based on such a low withdraw level.

So, anyhow getting past the idea of $100k per year withdrawal rate, there are a lot of ways to structure a withdraw of $100k that could take place in incremental ways rather than just lump sum withdrawing.. . and there could be target price levels to withdraw $10k at a time..   Of course, there is more comfort and less urgency in withdrawing such value if such hypothetical person already has plenty of cash.. but at the same time, there may well be some kind of need to get started, or to start to practice withdrawing.. in order to actually pull the fuck you lever rather than merely having the potential of pulling such lever at any time (not bad to be there, either)... .. but if any such hypothetical guy is planning to make BIG changes, then it might well be better to have 1-2 years of cash already on hand (I know Dabs used to say this and I did not like the idea of holding so much cash, but there is some practicality in considering how much value to keep in cash).. and then however far that you project out your cash (expenses), then to just plan to withdraw on a quarterly basis or some kind of way to attempt to withdraw during tops rather than bottoms (easier said than done)... I am starting to ramble.. I better stop.

the noon wall report at 1:11pm

comparative analysis and macro economic structures

note the different inflection rates of the MACD and RSI indicators


dead cat bounce
DJI
D



vs the llama bounce
BTC
D

Don't forget that nuclear triad includes subs. Imagine one of these detonated under water 200 miles in international waters. Not sure how well would shelters fare against radioactive tsunamis.



Bottom line any discussion about surviving first attack is retarded, has been since the 60s, and that's by design for MAD

Explanation

You so fussy . Good entertainment