Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4301. (Read 26713621 times)

What i tried to say is that China and eastern markets were holding, mining and trading big amounts of bitcoin, in relation to other countries. These are just exiting, or have exited already under the pressure of the chinese government's ban. We're now somewhere near the bottom of this exit, imho. Hashrate has recovered globally, supply is sort of fixed, exchange illiquidity rising is a fact. The amounts of fiat to be injected to go over the 2021 top is substantial, even more so because many took their chance accumulating while the knifes (china #1 mid 2021, china #2 recently) were falling. Fresh money will come in when the bottom signal is clear. But it will take time to shift the needed amount of dollars from other markets or stores of value to Bitcoin.
I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

Explanation

Double post on my face 

OK... Fair enough regarding the unprobablistic way of characterizing your own framing of the matter, but still when we talk about a variety of possible unprobablistic scenarios it's like just throwing anything out there, and should we really be preparing our minds in those kinds of directions, even if our BTC portfolio preparations might not match our psychology.

Or wouldn't it be true that if you keep thinking in those kinds of (what I believe to be both unprobabalistic and negative) ways, subsequently your mind may well end up influencing your financial preparations?

Just does not sound healthy to me.. and surely, to go from the attempts to assert less probable scenarios into the assertion of way out there scenarios.

In other words, it seems way more reasonable to me to consider that if our most-likely scenario would have been to have been having the peaking out of the BTC price in this quarter, but if it does not happen, then we may well go to the 1st quarter of 2022 or the second quarter or the third quarter, and so it hardly makes any sense to skip those more likely scenarios of having some kind of delayed peak rather than completely snapping out of the matter and go along with the fact that "everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market."   Since when did it matter that everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market.  I am sure the same was true in 2013 with the silk road baloney and then all of a sudden. BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.  similarly with the various fork wars in 2017 and the various tragedies and Armageddons.. that was not exactly smooth, and then BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.

I just don't buy it.... yeah of course, you are even conceding that we might not have any kind of extended draw down, but why do we even need anything like that to take place?  We had 56% and we had 39%.. so why would there be any kind of need for more, even if everyone is thinking that we might need more... blah blah blah.

I am not attached to any kind of have to happen sort of blow off top is coming, but there aren't really any meaningful and significants\ signs that it is not, except for some bit of delay and a few pull backs along the way.. sure the pull backs do not look exactly like earlier pull backs, but so what?  They don't need to look exactly the same.  They are still in the same ballpark as similar enough to earlier kinds of periods of pullbacks, and all we really have so far is delay..

Sure, I will admit that throughout almost the whole of 2018, until that November collapse, I did hang onto the idea that there could be a 2013-like double top, so in that sense I was wrong about the "could be" and/or that the 2017 bull run had actually ended in December 2017.. but still even that was another more than 6x price increase (from the august/september foundation) that had already been a more than 10x increase from our $250-ish 2015 starting point.

So even if we take $4,200 for our 2019 starting point and we get a bit more than 2x to get us to the $10k September 2020 starting point, we ONLY have a 7x increase and some pretty decent sized corrections along the way to say the 56% from May/June/July and our current 39% one that has not yet been resolved regarding whether it is over.. I don't buy that those lame-ass whimpy theories are very likely to play out.. even if they surely are in the cards so I am not saying that the whimpy-ass theories are not possible.. but I am saying:  I don't buy it.. I don't buy it... .. because it just seems to be hanging onto negative scenarios for the mere sake of it.. when things are still looking pretty damned good in terms of a set up for another exponential top.. I mean one of the great things about exponential tops remains the fact that shorts keep forming to believe that it is over.. at $5k then at $8k then at $10k and so on and so on... and sure you can say that we already had that in the ride up to $65k (the first time around) and our second visit to $69k. .but I am not going to buy it.. not yet.. I am not going to appreciate that you are describing any kind of likely scenario.. even if it ends up happening.. I will say that you had merely been lucky with that nonsense whimpy ass description that bitcoin was going to be lame through 2022... and wait til 2023..

Call me a bulltard if you like (and I don't even think that I am really that stuck on bullish ideations), but even with your explanation, clarification and characterizing of your thoughts on the matter, the "nothing is gonna happen until 2023" way of thinking about the real and likely dynamics of our lillie fiend makes wwwwweeeeeee little senses to yours truly.

Satisfaction on his face is priceless…!!!

Explanation

What happened to their Petrocoin or whatever it was called? 

The sad thing about this is that yeah, some of them were smart but also forced into finding other solutions while their govt. fucked them over. However, there are likely millions of people there who are just shit of luck as they maybe didn't know/never heard of bitcoin

Bitcoin is already changing lives.

Well some will call them lucky but I will call them “smart”.

Noooo  
I don't say 2022 will be negative or boring at all, but as cycles are getting delayed (ATH wise), and hodlers are bravely accumulating at dips, many bearish hands in china and the east were already shaken out, the reasoning of (projected) gains in 2023, when everybody and his pet is expecting a bear market, would not be that unrealistic.
If we ATH 2022 again, the correction may go way less deep than expected (with -80% as a reference), followed by gradually rising in 2023. We didn't have that before, so it's likely to happen, since king daddy doesn't care...

EDIT: Call my way of approach something like  "unprobabilistic mode" or else, IDC 

Explanation

Wow...

some peeps already skipping ahead to 2023..

jeezus fuggin crist....

I mean... I am not really that much of one to focusing on the various difficulties to predict short-term doldrums.. but presuming away 2022 as if it were going to be too boring seems a kind of fallacy of assigning too much certainty to the short-to-medium term as well, no?

It's like presuming too much about nothing interesting to happen in 2022... and seems to me still that so much interesting can happen in 2022.. even if it ends up being boring, the potentiality (and even likelihood for interesting) is still there (until it is not)..  ..

I will actually assert that in some sense, there is some interesting aspects to our current dip that has so far reached 39% in regards to whether more weak hands can be shaken out and how long this can last.  Will we have a break to the upside or to the downside... interesting.. interesting... interesting.. and another thing, can we retain sideways for the remainder of the calendar year (sure seems reasonably possible), but how long can we retain sideways into 2022.. can it even last a whole month, or are we going to get a quarter out of sideways... Can you guys even imagine a whole fucking quarter of sideways with the level of tension that we seem to have currently?  I have a lot of doubts that sideways is really sustainable at these prices (let's say between $38k and $55k) for that long, but hey what do I know?

OT: Need more proof that we live in an ever-deflating world where zombie corporations are being propped up with free money, and then with acquisitions?

Take a look at Cerner, Oracle's latest acquisition. The are buying Cerner for $28.3 billion, the most Oracle as ever spent to acquire another company:

Oracle to buy medical records company Cerner in its biggest acquisition ever
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/oracle-to-buy-medical-records-company-cerner.html

Now you would think that Oracle is buying them because they are profitable? Nope.

Cerner's financials say that their Total Debt to Equity ratio (FY) (%) = 29.81.

Which means that out of that $28.3B equity valuation, they have $8.3B in total debt outstanding. If you believe the valuation estimate, that's still nearly a third of the company that is all debt! And over the past 4 years, their accumulating debt had been growing at a much faster rates than their profits. Which means they were on track to eventually going belly up.

Is it any wonder that M&A is at an all time high?

Well yeah.. does not seem like a bad use of coins, overall... and sure there are a lot of discretionary aspects in terms of figuring out at what point to shave off around 26% of your coins (9/35).... in order to satisfy various fiat obligations and maybe even to diversify some of your value into profits (and he is not even seeming to completely be referring to consumption or luxury goods) is that you LFC?   hahahahaha  

Another aspect is merely being in profits gives quite a few options.. because let's just say cryptorich13 was not so fortunate to get all of his coins or even at the average (median) of the difference between $1,200 and $4k... and so even if we might suggest some kind of average price per BTC at about $3k per BTC, the options come into play with 18.3x in profits ($55k/$3k).  

Anyhow, 35 BTC acquired in 2017 is not even a bad time horizon in terms of letting at least a whole cycle of BTC price performance play out, and sure, he might never be able to get those 9 BTC back or anything close to that if he just stays in a kind of DCA or buying on dips mode.. perhaps?  perhaps?  Anyhow, we can estimate that he had spent around $105k ($3k x 35 BTC) to purchase those 35 BTC, and he had cashed out around $495k. ($55k x 9 BTC).. and even at today's prices, he still has around $1.2 million in value ($46k x 26 BTC).  

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

As far as getting back the coins.. maybe he will be able to and maybe he won't.  I doubt that it hurts to monitor his ongoing portfolio value and maybe just to keep it in more of a preservation and accumulation mode in the coming years, or maybe just a minimum shaving of value mode.. again, with around 18.3x of profits (currently only 15.3x in profits), the guy continues to have varying degrees of profitable options in terms of BTC portfolio management.... and the main questions likely revolve around how much profits, loss of opportunity costs or principle preservation...

So maybe for me, instead of engaging in a kind of lump sum behavior of shaving off 25% all at once, more likely I would have considered a kind of sensible capital preservation liquidation methodology under some kind of formula that I might accept.. and sure, maybe we could have ended up at similar kinds of shavings.. though ballparkedly I am thinking that I probably would not have shaved more than 12%.. which would have been around half of the amount that the guy did.. and that would have been to use the spot price and then to say that I am able to shave off 4% per year.. which then gets me to 12% if i am frontloading the amount based on concerns about the BTC price over the next 3 years to be returning to that particular price...

Another thing is my last couple of years (developed) desire to use the 208-week moving average for the calculation of BTC portfolio value rather than spot price, and when I use the 208-week moving average as my calculating amount, I authorize myself up to 12% per year based on that 208-week MA price (so long as the spot price is at least quite a bit above that 12% higher than the 208-week moving average), even though I would still have some reservations in shaving off 3 years worth of my allocated amount, but I still believe that would get me to similar results in terms of what is going on now in the BTC price as compared with the 208-week moving average... so the current 208-week moving average is about $18.3k, so if I multiply that price by my hypothetical 35 BTC, then that gives me a portfolio value of $640,500, so I had already speculated that I would have been able to shave off 12% per year (which would be around $77k), so then the question would be whether to front load that shaving off (and limit myself from future shavings) or not and to be able to withdraw up to $231k ($77k x 3 years), and at the price of $55k that would have allowed me to cash out 4.2 BTC if I felt that there were a need to front load my cashing out. By the way, $55k is a spot price that is more than 3x higher than the 208-week moving average, so I should not be worried about my 12% shavings based on the spot price being way the hell higher than my measuring stick of the 208-week MA.

Back to the question of authorizing myself to cash out 3 years worth of BTC liquidation, there would have to be some level of confidence in my own short to medium views of the BTC price that the BTC may well not return to $55k for 3 years, which surely seems like a stretch to imagine that kind of scenario (even if such a scenario would be possible) - especially since we had already had a 56% price correction down to $28.6k in May/June/July.  And, we just recently had a December 3 - 39% correction down to $41,967.. and of course, with a posturing (presumably more than a couple of weeks after cryptorich13 having had sold) cryptorich13 had actually sold at $55k before our December 3 dip down to $41,967... so sometimes there can be some seeming gloating when guys assert that they sold at a price that is higher than our current seemingly stagnant price.  

For me the amount of BTC that I would authorize myself to sell would have to have some kind of connection to how strongly I believe that I might get stuck out of being able to sell BTC at any such chosen sell price, so in this case that would be $55k, and so in that regard, if there seems to be expectations that such non-return of BTC to the spot price of $55k could last for 1 or 2 years, then I would authorize my sale based on that period of time, so accordingly, I would not have been able to sell up to 4.2BTC because that would have been a calculation for 3 years, and I cannot bring myself to conclude that we are not returning to $55k or higher in the next 3 years. In other words, based on my view of the probably likely longest period of a correction that does not return to $55k, I would have ONLY been able to authorized myself a maximum of 1-2 years of selling, and that would have been to be able to sell the value of between $77k and $154k (which would have been 1.4 BTC to 2.8 BTC).. so that is where I stand in terms of my considerations of shaving authorizations based on recent BTC price actions.  

Even after having asserted that I would have not shaven off so much BTC as cryptorich13 had done, and also asserted that I am not against the idea of shaving even decent amounts of BTC from time to time, I can still accept that these choices about how much to shave and when are discretionary matters and still a more aggressive strategy like cryptorich13 could end out playing out better than what I would consider to be my own more conservative BTC portfolio management approach.

322k miles on my dodge dart slant six 1977

For all dutchies: https://rabobank.jobs/nl/vacature/blockchain-cryptocurrency-specialist-senior/JR_00057127/

Edit: love the Rabobank. Went there in March 2020 for an extra mortgage to buy btc. They thought that was a good idea and gave it to me.

Explanation

The MSM: "The stock market is falling because of Omicron fears!"

Reality: The stonk market is falling because Congress did not approve another $2T free money package for the wealthy elites to continue buying up more stonks.

Look over here, not over there. truth.gif

Also other reason, this:
https://kvia.com/news/2021/12/20/china-cuts-key-interest-rate-for-the-first-time-in-20-months/

China showing more cracks.

2023? You were trying to say 2022? FTFY 

Explanation