Funny thing is that I could not really get the matter out of my head, so I sent my uncle a text and I proposed a "friendly little bet" about the calendar year.
I said that I would give him a 30% headstart because I am nice like that, and I proposed that we make a friendly bet about the price of bitcoin versus the price of stocks (proposing using the DJI), and I said that we could figure out the denominator for each at the beginning of the year, and I suggested that I win the bet if BTC performs at a higher percentage by the end of the calendar year, and he wins the bet if the DJI performs at a higher percentage at the end of the year...
An easy-peasy and straight-forward bet, no? I have not heard back from him, yet.. but he really does not text very often, so he has that excuse.. so I may have to remind him when I see him in person.. not sure when that will be.
We would bet something like $5 or some kind of small token amount.. but I gotta hear from him, first.. so that we can settle (agree upon) the denominators of each and the other terms of the proposed calendar year bet.
Through such a bet, I will attempt to determine the level of his conviction (cockiness today) and if he is willing to put his pride on the line for the end of the year.. He's the one who proclaims to "like" calendar year nonsense, and I will go along with his framework... and we will see how it plays out.. I am not really worried about if I lose.. but I want to see if he is going to have some conviction beyond what he says on one day then acts like he forgot that he said it.. blah blah blah.
Well for your sake I hope that he takes the bet as that would probably shut him up for good and when/if he loses you can just tell him that you've done him a favor and shown him that Bitcoin is worth investing in so he may have lost the $5 that you wagered but he now has the proof and the encouragement to trust that Bitcoin is profitable.
I might think about proposing this bet to some of my friends & family see if they bite the bullet when it comes down to it.
I see on my phone that my uncle "read" my texts from yesterday (about a few hours after I sent them), but I still have not heard from him.
I have been thinking of possible variations of the bet too.. in order that the bet might keep running, so maybe we figure out an amount that is comfortable, but we keep the bet running for something like 5 years, and at the end of each calendar year we measure to see where we are at in terms of comparing bitcoin to the DJI... ...
So maybe we start with $5 or even $50 at the end of 2021, and then each year we multiply the bet (but we continue to use the beginning of 2021 as our starting reference point for the price (percentage) to beat), which is showing our long term conviction starting from a base point (which I feel that would be my giving him a ~30% headstart, too.. and I do not have a problem with that)...
So maybe the bet doubles or triples each year, so it would look like either the 2x, 3x, 5x or perhaps some other multiple and sure the below examples show starting from $5 but maybe add a zero (which would be starting from $50) or use some other starting number ($1, $20, $100 or whatever) to customize the starting point and the multiples to individual "friendly" finances while creating a kind of magnification that emphasizes an importance in thinking about the longer term rather than getting all worked up about short-term nonsense, when in fact my uncle and I are both considering our lil selfies as long term investors, but for some reason, yesterday he seemed to have been putting so much emphasis in short-term nonsense just to make his comparative point and supposedly that his investment in stocks was "beating" bitcoin (at least from his way of framing the matter).
2x 3x 5x xxxEnd of 2021 $5 $5 $5 $5 (or some other amount)
End of 2022 $10 $15 $25 $xxx
End of 2023 $20 $45 $125 $xxx
End of 2024 $40 $135 $625 $xxx
End of 2025 $80 $405 $3,125 $xxx
The whole matter of betting or putting a bit of stake behind assertions can still be friendly.. but putting some money where your mouth is can be helpful to showing true conviction, and of course, if the bet amounts are high, there there could be some reason to make sure that any of us would save for the event that we might lose the bet.. and no one of us should be putting all our eggs in one basket, even if we may well be willing to bet in accordance with one direction or another turning out in our favor.