I spoke to one of my uncles on Friday and then I spoke with him at brunch today.. and on Friday, he was saying something about wanting to buy some BTC.. like a somewhat repeated theme of him saying but not doing... and sure, I say some things that should at least allow him to appreciate hedging or DCAing or some kind of modest starting point.
Then when I saw him at brunch.. holy shit he was an arrogant twat. He started bragging that stocks were generally up 14% for the calendar year, and even when I said that the calendar year did not matter, he insisted that we look at bitcoin and we saw that the 6 month price performance of BTC appeared to be 15% down.. so in that regard, he was quite smug about it, and even when I told him that he seemed to be choosing random price points in order to ignore actual facts, he was quite excited to proclaim that stocks are doing better than bitcoin and that his ability to live off of his investment strategy for around 25 years, as a kind of passive income was sufficient evidence regarding what he was doing was sufficiently adequate and keeping him in a quite good place..
Try not to get angry at him but when his stocks are down in a couple of months time and Bitcoin shoots to over 60k in December just said him a little message saying your hope he is enjoying his passive income and you are definitely enjoying your new lambo you bought. I am kidding its never a good thing to be smug about it but I hear this all the time. The amount of discussions I have had with family about them wanting to get into Bitcoin and never taking the leap and then they try and then it goes up and they regret it and once it falls back down all you hear is them trying to justify it to themselves why they did not invest "see its a bubble". This does not just happen once this happens on a yearly basis and its the same pattern over and over but the only difference which they refuse to acknowledge is Bitcoin is up from the average of the last two years.
You cannot change ignorant people.
Funny thing is that I could not really get the matter out of my head, so I sent my uncle a text and I proposed a "friendly little bet" about the calendar year.
I said that I would give him a 30% headstart because I am nice like that, and I proposed that we make a friendly bet about the price of bitcoin versus the price of stocks (proposing using the DJI), and I said that we could figure out the denominator for each at the beginning of the year, and I suggested that I win the bet if BTC performs at a higher percentage by the end of the calendar year, and he wins the bet if the DJI performs at a higher percentage at the end of the year...
An easy-peasy and straight-forward bet, no? I have not heard back from him, yet.. but he really does not text very often, so he has that excuse.. so I may have to remind him when I see him in person.. not sure when that will be.
We would bet something like $5 or some kind of small token amount.. but I gotta hear from him, first.. so that we can settle (agree upon) the denominators of each and the other terms of the proposed calendar year bet.
Through such a bet, I will attempt to determine the level of his conviction (cockiness today) and if he is willing to put his pride on the line for the end of the year.. He's the one who proclaims to "like" calendar year nonsense, and I will go along with his framework... and we will see how it plays out.. I am not really worried about if I lose.. but I want to see if he is going to have some conviction beyond what he says on one day then acts like he forgot that he said it.. blah blah blah.