... a lot of his debt comes due between 4.5 years and 7 years from now, and he has various back-up strategies and he also has various plans in the event that matters don't play out in the expected direction...
It has been studied for awhile, just using price history as data, that anyone who bought bitcoin at any time and held for at least 3.8 years should be in profit. So holding bitcoin for at least 4 years and even up to 7 years without doing anything to it, should yield a nice capital gain or profit.
Of course, there is no sure fired bet with anything, and of course, companies have to act and plan to act way before something like a debt comes due, in the event that they want to be prepared to service such debt.. so several of those initial debt-related investments that Saylor made were on a 5 year time-line and one or more of the latest ones had a 7-year timeline, so surely there are a lot of uncertainties, especially when it comes to the future whether we are talking about a week or two down the road or further down the road, and of course, the longer the timeline, the more uncertainties that are going to be there and also may not be completely able to be accounted for.
There remain aspects of bitcoin that seem to be a good bet, even taking into account a variety of scenarios.. so even though it is far from guaranteed, there seem to be some guarantees in bitcoin that are way the fuck less dependent on some of the behaviors of people.. whether referring to individuals, groups, institutions or government, and even the fact that bitcoin has been designed in a way to account for that it is going to be attacked from various angles, but even having such a design does not guarantee that bitcoin will prevail, in spite of its currently Lindy effect existence that is a wee bit older than 12.5 years in terms of being actually operational.
I'm trying to look for the article or data (of course, price data is easy enough to find) ... but it's out there.
Many of us are likely already aware of those bitcoin empirical facts regarding bitcoin being profitable at all times in 3.8 years or whatever the fuck it is.. We can look at the charts ourselves and make those assessments pretty quickly if we know that to look for in terms of price points at various times in bitcoin's life.. For example, look at the price peak of any bubble and then see how long it takes for bitcoin to get above that amount and stay above that amount.. and sure it is not guaranteed that such a phenomenon is going to continue into the future.. and probably is not likely to remain a guarantee ... but so far it has held up (until it does not... hahahahahaha).
A conservative plan to hold for at least 4 or 7 years or longer should be more profitable than anything else out there.
And, yeah there are a lot of theories about supposedly better investments, but if we consider the upside and downside risk of a lot of investments, bitcoin still does seem to be amongst the best of bets, and part of the reason why bitcoin had achieved a 56% price correction in a seemingly bull market and the fact that it has been lingering in a 45% to 55% correction zone for nearly two months is because NOT everyone appreciates bitcoin's current status as the best of investments...
So again nothing is guaranteed, even though probably most people who are long term BTC HODLers are likely going to continue to agree with bitcoin being a great long term investment, even though there may be some of them (or is it us) who might be wanting to lessen the amount of their bitcoin exposure in this next cycle.. whether we are talking about getting to $100k, $200k or a wee bit higher, or maybe it could take another cycle to get to a point that some OGs might be getting out, yet there are some of us, including yours truly, who are more inclined to retain way larger portions of their BTC stash.. because there remains a kind of underlying presumption that there is not really any better investment out there, even if we may well get a certain amount of ongoing extreme volatility along the way and even though it could take longer than we had anticipated to get past our current ATH of $64,895 or even those next BTC price thresholds thereafter (referring to $100k, $200k and beyond) (whether referring to the next cycle or even possibly longer than that).
I am not even saying that there is any guarantee that the 208-week moving average is going to continue to go up at 12% per year or more, but surely there are ways to recognize and appreciate that the current price is not sufficiently higher than the 208-week moving average (like in the range of less than 20% or something like that) to potentially cause concern that the 208-week moving average is not continuing to have enough UPpity pressures upon it in order to guarantee that it is going to be going up in a kind of 12% or more per year history... again currently the 208-week moving average is at $13,500 - which our current price of $33,500-ish is nearly 2.5x of that 208-week moving average price... .. life is good.. life is good.
Oh and by the way (again), I do believe that Saylor/MSTR needs to adopt some better frameworks of considering the BTC price (or at least the way that he talks about the way that the past relates to the future projections), even though Saylor's ways of framing matters may still continue to serve him just fine in terms of whatever message that he is striving to send or share with people. So whether he says that BTC goes up 200% per year or 100% per year and measures that shit from tops, just seems problematic to me, even though I understand that a lot of people want to consider bitcoin in those kinds of terms... So I am not saying that such considerations serve no purpose because we kind of do want to consider various tops that might be reached, but in terms of personally assessing the value of what you hold and attempting to account for volatility and perhaps even causing (or helping) individuals from panicking about short term BTC price movements, it seems way more healthy (in my ongoing and current thinkenings) to be trying to place some amount of emphasis in bottoms or potential bottoms rather than tops.
But whatever, people are going to have their ways of framing BTC price matters and predictions about price in terms of their own situations and plans of what to do, and surely part of the fun of going through a lot of this and interacting on forums/threads like this is that we are not necessarily going to agree about all of these matters and that is likely that some of us have differing assessments regarding both which way we believe that the price might go (short, medium and/or long term) and then what actions might be prudent for our lil selfies in terms of our perspective... or ever changing perspectives...
