Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 65. (Read 26503201 times)

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I was a only reader at that time but I know about the signature ban.

With my question I meant ...

Are there any campaigns that monetize avatar pics and personal texts for WO only posters?

Last time (2y ago) I checked that wasn't the case.

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+1

I hope signatures never get allowed in this thread. It would turn it into a circus.

If you might recall (I believe prior to your arrival on the forum), when the forum shut down the WO thread, and then we had a vote to reopen the thread and to have Infofont as the new owner, one of the new conditions that theymos put on the thread was that signatures would not show on this thread.

I personally did not agree with that rule, yet you might recognize that one of the reasons that this thread has relaxed posting requirements is in order to allow the thread to be a bit of a free-for-all, yet at the same time, the removal of the showing of signatures in this thread (and the economic incentives that come with signatures) seems to be a way to disincentivizing the trolling of this thread based on economic incentives associated with signatures.  The policy regarding no signatures in this WO thread does seem to be working, so I doubt that theymos would change the rule (or allow signatures in this thread) anytime soon.   

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is there a sig campaign that pays if you only post in the WO  ? 

Hopefully some of your math and descriptions make sense to some other guys who might want to play around with it, but it seems kind of confusing to me... ..

Although I understand that pulling out a lobster might potentially mean a nice meal - hopefully for two, since who wants to share a lobster if you don't have to?


In the end, you should have some estimates of your costs and your income and to figure out how much you are taking in and spending, and surely some of the dynamic can change if you are getting paid in bitcoin,  yet having expenses in fiat, so I personally would not suggest that you have any obligation to invest any money that is not after expenses (meaning within your discretionary income), so if you are mix matching your ladders on the way up and down with money that you consider to be part of your expenses or that you have not quite determined the extent of your discretionary income, then surely it can become more difficult for any outside observer to figure out if you might be overallocating in one direction or another.

I recall some periods of time that I had income in BTC, and sometimes I would let that income ride for a while or figure out how to offset that income with dollars somewhere else, and so if I could reconcile the accounts, then I might not have to do any buy or sale of BTC in places that I might otherwise have to buy or sell BTC... so sometimes I might have extra cash in another location that I can balance out with extra BTC that I had acquired, and so therefore, I am able to resolve my books and to maintain the level of allocation that i preferred to keep, so what I am suggesting that there could be times in which you are influx in between accounts and it is a lot more difficult to figure out how to resolve those accounts and to figure out what the balances should be depending on goals that can differ from one guy to the next in regards to deciding how much cash to keep on hand and how much BTC to keep on hand, and if there is a certain date that accounts need to be resolved by, then how close might it be permissible to put off resolution of the accounts, especially if they might be determined to be out of balance in one direction or the other.


When you are accumulating more bitcoin, then that would be investment amounts, and I have always said that any new investments into bitcoin need to be 4-10 years or longer, otherwise they are trades rather than investments.

So of course, you seem to be trading rather than investing anyhow, since you don't seem to be even trying to hold new investments into bitcoin for at least 4 years.   

So are you treating the extra 0.2 or 0.3 BTC to be investments or trades?  If you don't sell in 2025, then when are you going to sell?  You are not planning 4 years or longer, so it is hard to be getting into what it is that you are trying to achieve with any extra that you were to hold? what is your timeline on that? can you make it 4 more years with adding those extra BTC to your stash?

You have already admitted on numerous occasions that historically, you had already been in the habit of selling way too many BTC since you treated your BTC income as a way to generate fiat within each of the years rather than investments that would be for 4-10 years or longer.   

Yeah, since you are getting quite elderly, you might not want to be continuing to add BTC to your stash, especially if you don't have at least 4 years that you are planning to hold any new bitcoin investment amounts.

Probably, it is best for you to figure out which portion that you are going to be able to invest and which portions you need for regular income.  Usually the rule of thumb it so spend from other non-BTC sources first, but it does make it a bit more complicated when you are receiving bitcoin as income and then you might be receiving bitcoin more than your other income and of course, there is a certain hypothesis that BTC is likely going to be a bit higher in 2025 than 2026 and perhaps 2027, yet we cannot be 100% sure about any of those kinds of things, either.

You already have various pots of funds that you spend from so you should be able to figure out how much to add to which  and how much to spend from which.. and you might already have some tentative plans for 2026 and 2027 too...

Oh and by the way we don't really know any of the BTC prices, yet we might hypothesize that BTC prices are likely to be higher in 2025 than they are in 2024, but then they might be lower in 2026 but perhaps not quite to 2024 levels (but we don't really know) and then in 2027 they might be lower than 2026 but perhaps slightly gravitating back up but still not quite as low as 2024 prices... again we really don't know just have some approximate ideas.

I personally recommend structuring plans in line with the 200-WMA instead of spot prices, since it is a bit easier to project that the 200-WMA is going to continue to go up, even if we might not know the exact rate, yet of course, when you sell any BTC you are still selling them at spot price rather than 200-WMA prices, and perhaps you might try to project that perhaps the spot price should be at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA to sell your portion for that month or quarter or whatever it might be that the time intervals that you are shaving off portions of your BTC, to the extent that you don't have income from other sources to spend first.

Yes, continue....

but if my signature and mining earns 0.4 btc in 2025. selling .1 to .2 as we runup is not a big deal.

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were did all the donations go?

by this time I think it's obvious that they were/are not used for the forum much

I think they will keep their confessions. Elon Musk is the world
Its rich man. As he manages his own coin doge.

That's why I think. It will become reality.


Although it will last a long time. It is impossible to say what will happen in the end.

If you are in, then I am in as well  .
This explains some otherwise unexplained things in our common "reality", from my personal perspective.

Unreal. I did not think I would exist in the simulation long enough to see admission of its existence made so clearly.

What do you expect? 

Holy shit...


Pretty much we started out election day (largely 1 week ago on the 5th) right around upper $60ks (we could call it $69k-ish), and then we pretty much got a 4-day boost to about $76k until the 9th/10th, and then the next bump up came over the weekend (perhaps long weekend since Monday was a holiday in the US).. starting on the 10th at $76k-ish and then brought us to nearly $90k within two days.. .. but then in the last 24 hours we have pretty much been consolidating at the top of where we got (so far) .. so bouncing between $85k and $90k.. I would hardly call that yo-yo, yet..

The price move has mostly been up yet there really has not been any correction .. but just a bit of a pause in the UP.. at least so far.

I would surmise that price moves that are largely within 5% to 8% of the top are hardly even large enough to reach the definition of "yo-yoing"..   Maybe at least give me quick moves of more than 10% down to consider the possibility that there is anything meaningful going on, and really, 10% is not even really that great of a pause in the UPpity.. though sure it is enough for traders to make profits... or try to scare out some weak hands, too.

Yes.

Only if
A. You use perpetuals as opposed to ordinary expiring futures
B. Funding rate is negative

A _and_ B


short (virtual sell) 13500 1$ contracts @27k btc price = 0.5BTC
close position: re-buy the same 0.5 btc @88k btc price = $44000
So you're down ($44000 - $13500) = $27500,
in btc = -$27500 * (1BTC / $88000) = -0.292BTC

Note that if it's a long that goes belly up, it's worse.

long (virtual buy) 13500 1$ contracts @88k btc price = 0.153BTC
close the position: sell the same 0.153 btc @27k price ~ $4150
So you're down ($13500 - $4150) = $9350,
in btc = -$9350 * (1BTC / $27000) = -0.346BTC

That's why these inverse futures (perpetual or expiring) are good for shorting, not for longing. Carry trade and all that.

In the case of expiring futures, that's it. In the case of perpetuals, if shorting in positive funding rate conditions you'd have got some funding to soften the blow. The funding does not go to the exchange but to other traders: Longs pay shorts if positive (more common), shorts pay longs if negative (uncommon).

No.

I have done that in times of sideways in the past to profit from up-down volatility, but you must close long legs and short legs separately of course, closely following the ups and downs. It's a full time job and a risky one, because the long leg can always get liquidated if the price moves against you (downity). As i said, the short leg won't - as long as it isn't leveraged above 1.

This time the closing target price was obtained by a sophisticated SOMA model fed with recent sentiment data (been gainz, so now she takes a break). I tried to let it ride, but number went back up, so thanks to my protective stop placed near my shorting price (but still below it, meaning in positive territory), I managed to pull off a lobster before I pulled out.

It seems that there are lots of traders trying to make a quick buck yo-yoing the corn.
That said, I barely had time to watch the action today.
Trying to read WO and watch some vids now.

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