Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 67. (Read 26461014 times)

meh that pessimist? proudhon holds like zero btc.

right?

meh that pessimist? proudhon holds like zero btc.

right?

Not that I am concerned about your reputation or willingness to honour the bet, just as for information.

The bet I am closely monitoring is the @proudhon one.

here it is

https://btc5.trezor.io/address/3Mw9mvjTjWtpxhmctdLa5Awj5gGUbSChKV


the deal was 0.0105 when I turn 105 to you and if you are dead to fillipone if I do not make 105 it does not transfer over so that would be 2062.

I will let it sit for now as I don't need to spend it.

Most of these are fair points, even though I have various concerns about your framing of these matters.  Surely it could be fair to assign some kind of a level in regards to what it "wealthy elite, gentlemen" as compared to merely reaching some level of fuck you status or even multiples of fuck you status, yet it still seems problematic to assign any kind of specific level to what might be elite status as compared to merely reaching fuck you status.

I have some additional difficulties conceding that anyone with something like 30 million in wealth would have all of it in bitcoin.  that seems a bit strange, yet there could be some practicality of having bitcoin and cash or if you might be suggesting that the cash levels are relatively low, so that they might ONLY cover around 6 months of living expenses.

Another angle of your 100% in bitcoin idea would be to presume that bitcoin is the ONLY appreciating asset... perhaps maybe residential properities and maybe the value of some assets, whether they are cars, yachts, planes or some other valuables that have both maintenance cost and utility value (that goes beyond their possible monetization or value storage value).

Of course, I have troubles valuating from BTC spot price rather than something like 200-WMA, yet surely anyone who might be wanting to make withdrawals against his bitcoin would be making those withdrawals at spot prices and not at 200-WMA valuations, so I would grant that much even though surely any of us should appreciate that there is so much variation in attempting to make spot price valuations that might even be transitory rather than any kind of a lasting price.

In recent times, I have been generating my own assessments that a bitcoin rich person would be able to withdraw value at much higher rates than a person assessing his wealth based on traditional 4% withdrawal rates... So sure, we can still use $30 million as our calculation, and so $30 million would generate $1.2 million of income per year or $100k per month, and so in my own calculation, a person assessing his wealth based on ONLY his bitcoin holdings would be able to generate the same income off of a $12 million amount held in bitcoin, since 10% of $12 million is $1.2 million, yet I ONLY reach that based on using the 200-WMA as the way to measure the value of the holdings, so I am still coming to similar numbers as you, yet I would be proclaiming that a person who currently has 312 BTC is already at the equivalent of the ultra rich that you describe based on the 200-WMA (that is currently at $38,500) and already being in a position to sustainably withdraw $1.2 million per year and $100k per month..

Of course as the BTC price goes up and the 200-WMA goes up, then the required number of BTC to reach that $12 million assessment with the 200WMA would go down... and maybe I would only be speculating the 200-WMA to go up between 20% and 40% per year... at least in the next 18 months... yet even if the the 200WMA only goes up at the lower rate of 20% within the next year, that would still cause a 20% reduction in the quantity of coins needed within my calculation to suggest that a year from now the required quantity of BTC to be at that same ultra rich $12 million equivalent to $30 million to be 250 BTC (312*80%), so then another year later, it would presumably be 200 BTC (250*80%).  We might attempt to presume that each year the quantity of BTC needed is going down at least 20% absent some changes in bitcoin price dynamics, so perhaps from time to time we might want to assess that the 200-WMA is continuing to go up around 20% a year-ish. 


You spend every year, so that is not really a new thing. 

I do recall once (around 13-ish years ago) buying a new car one year after I had just bought another new car.  The two cars were very similar, except the newer one had a few extra bells and whistles that I thought that I would really get a lot of pleasure out of (and I did), and part of my motive for that somewhat spontaneous and out of character move was that I was purposefully wanting to spend money based on a sense of certain mortality issues that I had going on in my head (and even in my body) at the time... so for sure, I cannot blame you for planning to act upon such current information that you have in front of you.   

On kind of a related side note (and yeah it is a bit crass, too), I was wondering what you were going to do with the BTC that you had said that you were going to set aside (was it like 0.001 BTC or something?) to pay to me and/or fillippone in the event of my death prior to you that was meant to be paid in the event that you were to live to some year in the future (I cannot recall the exact details), but it seems a bit problematic to save that BTC if currently you are potentially having issues that are putting your longevity into question.