Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 66. (Read 26720812 times)

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same goes for me...

thinking about start trading it just to have these Saylor dips go away... 

please stop posting these "breaking" twitter copies without anything of your own.... it sucks...

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Lots of celebrities already evacuated their homes. Hollywood is in chaos now, maybe it's time to stop entertainment and be a bit serious for nothing.

Bro said it's not a complete circle, so you're probably going to be in the dips or up and downs. 

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I thought that it is a widely known secret that Bhutan has been mining bitcoin at least since 2020, and they got forced out of the closet in around 2023-ish?  or was it early 2024? in regards to some of the disclosures of Celsius clients (creditors) in connection with the Celsius bankruptcy proceedings.


I'll commit to 50/50-ish of a new ATH at or prior to Trump's inauguration..
 

which also does not mean such ATH would actually hold, even if it were to happen at or near the inaugeration, including my own questions regarding how bullish for bitcoin stocks or otherwise could Trump's first day executive orders be?  Release Ross, perhaps?  I understand that he likes to try to pump his own bags and/or the bags of his family or to take credit for such pumpening whether he caused it or not.. which probably is not a bad thing for our bags in regards to Trump having such motivations.

I suppose whatever pump or dump that might happen before, around or soon thereafter would be both stocks and BTC so surely some short-term correlations is likely related to liquidity (even though I don't believe in overall correlation, but I do recognize the existence of short-term correlation), yet if there is a pump prior to the inauguration then it seems less likely that it would continue to pump for time thereafter, especially since we have already had more than 2 months of pump (yeah, you are not considering it as pump, but still sustainably 35% to 45% -ish up since November 5th-ish..and price discovery too... 

.. but hey what do I know in regards to anything beyond 50-50-ish with a slight leaning towards up rather than down since we remain in a bullmarket, until we are not (which I tend to realize about 5 months or more after it is over. .  In any event.. it is not like any of my behaviors are changing based on what might or might not happen re - inauguration-related pumpenings and/or dumpenings that may or may not end up happening.


More weak hands are still selling?  I am not sure whether I like that theory.

I thought a lot of the dumb money, which would also include weak hands had already sold at or around $100k, so sure we keep hanging out here, and is that causing more of them to sell?  Doesn't sound like a great theory.. not that anything ever makes too much sense in these here parts.. and not even talking about you, personally.


Which is wrong.  You really think that there is any intention (or natural karma dynamics) to reward all the dumb fucks selling most if not all of their corn at or around $100k?  I continue to have difficulties with that ongoing suggested way forward.  It just does not make sense, even if it might end up happening... sure it could happen. but still does not make sense as a base case.


You are still saying down before up.. and I just don't buy it.. .. and anything greater than $85k does not rise to the level of down.. at least from my thinking, even though sure some of the dumb fucks selling at or around $100k might actually be smart enough to buy back either in the lower $90ks or in the upper $80ks, yet I am not going to automatically presume them to be smart enough, and that is part of the reason (and motivation) regarding why they sold many if not all of their coin around $100k.. and even failed/refused to buy BTC at around $100k in the first place.

I don't buy the down before up.... so maybe i would give less than 35% odds to such a down before up scenario playing out..   Where we are  at right now does not count.. since it is the same place we were right around New Years.. including that was ONLY slightly greater than 1 week ago.

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Sure, you are technically correct that bitcoin is goth less volatile and likely to continue to be less volatile than it was and even to become even less volatile in the future as BTC's market cap continues to rise, it becomes more difficult to move it.  I also consider that bitcoin is likely to remain quite volatile (even though less volatile relatively speaking to previous times) at least until bitcoin is 10x the size of gold's market cap.

Yes, this is a bit of a pet peeve of mine even if technically you are correct about the lessening of BTC volatility with the passage of time, yet I still hardly give any shits about such misleading bullshit technicalities, because so often normies and even misleading folks are proclaiming bitcoin to be stable, less volatile and losing its volatility and blah blah blah. .bullshit to lull folks into wrong thoughts about bitcoin and frequently unnecessarily shake normies out of their BTC, even though "technically" bitcoin prices are less volatile than they used to be and also technically bitcoin is a crypto currency too, but we don't go around talking about bitcoin as a cryptocurrency, because putting such label on bitcoin is misleading to the extent that many coins work on affililiating themselves with bitcoin and to act as if bitcoin is the same or similar to them, which technically bitcoin is similar, but still misleading to be agreeing to such a label in order to pump or mislead in regards to some other nonsense.

Similarly with volatility in bitcoin, including that likely one of the most inevitable things that we can predict about bitcoin is that it is volatile, and bitcoin is going to continue to be volatile and we better be warning newbies about such issues, including unpredictable aspects of bitcoin price dynamics that could result in 70% 80% or more price drops, and even doubling or tripling of the BTC price in a short period of time.  Might such volatility become less extreme.. sure.. but we better still be prepared for a lot of volatility and even purposeful attempts that whale diptwats engage in to shake folks out of their coins, whether it is actual pumping and dumping and/or misinformation campaigns and/or threatening self-custody removal, KYC issues and other ways of targeting bitcoiners, targeting bitcoin sympathizers, bitcoin promoters and bitcoin programmers.... You can act like it does not exist, you can get lulled into it, you can fail refuse to stack sufficiently or to sell too many coins too early, and surely a lot of folks are lulled into various kinds of misinformation and other actual practices including to scare them out of their coins, scare  them from self-custody, scare them from interacting peer to peer and other matters that relate to both underlying battle and ongoing volatility whether you want to down play such volatility "technically" or not or get lulled into mainstream bullshit talking points and even the talking points of delusional newbies merely because there is some technical correctness in such talking points.


Are these your own words or are you plagiarizing your words from another place?  You know that plagiarizing is against the forum rules and there is less tolerance for newbies to be doing it.

We can't give exact results at which we would see bitcoin but to me we are expecting much from bitcoin, seems pushing it too further than it takes gradual process to climb. As I know, we have already experienced $108k, for it to create another ATH there should be more correction (severe dip up to -20 or -30%) from it's previous ATH(I could be wrong or right). But lets keep our finger crossed to see what 20 January would looks like since the current prices doesn't give any signs of creating new ATH before 20th. We have less 12 days and anything is possible but let just reduced our hope and be optimistic about the price.

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There's a saying about that, which involves a cute podcaster called Laura.

OT...if any of you followed supposed "quantum computing" stocks that pumped 10-20X from Nov to early January...here comes the "correction" of down 38-43%, just today.
Exceeding bitcoin volatility by a lot  
Maybe Hindenburg or Barron's posted something?

EDIT: re volatility...some "stupid" s-tcoin is apparently up 7000% just today with a volume of only $8 mil and supposed market cap of 50 bil!!
It is probably hacked or "broken", or shows the spec frenzy in it's ugliest.
50 bil just for a supposedly cool name?

BTW, IBD, similarly to my prior post, links bitcoin's downdraft to a surprising surge in the 10 year treasury note yield.
https://www.investors.com/news/cryptocurrency-prices-news/?src=A00220

Good to not be alone.


Surely, way better if living in a partnership that both of the main players are oriented in a similar direction, including that sometimes there can be some lack of certainty regarding how to play matters in terms of the level of aggressiveness in regards to regular buying, and surely holding back value for dips is not even without its controversy. including that dips happen so fast, so that there could be a buy on the dip, and even strategic buying of a dip during the week, yet the price keeps dipping.. so then is there any money left?  Maybe money comes in every week, but there could be money that is held at the side for other purposes? Should that extra money be used for buying dips?  

Sometimes also some partners have trouble even knowing how to hold money on the side, since as soon as money is available they might think of many ways that they would like to spend such money rather than having such money for dip buying purposes.  

I am not even going to proclaim to be a dip-buying expert, because there have been so many times that I have run low on money (meaning I tend to buy back too soon), yet at the same time, I would like to speculate that my dip buying practices have gotten better in the past 11-ish years that I have been trying to learn from doing it.  I know that I am less emotional than I used to be, but the emotions are still always kind of there.. especially when the BTC price is moving a lot, and the emotions are present for either direction. .just probably having some differences too for one direction versus another.. since how can we feel impending dread when the BTC price is going up (except feelings of empathy for the no coiners and perhaps fear that they no coiners are not going to like it.. so fear in that sense?)


It will surely be interesting to see how some of these future battles play out, especially the ones battling "against" the cornz, if there are seemingly dumb fucks (who you believe to be smart fucks) who so choose to enter into such a contra-cornz battle.  

Many of us (who are not too whimpy in regards to bitcoin) can recognize and appreciate that one of the largest (if not the largest) wealth transfers is in the midst of happening, so which side of such wealth transfer do you think is the side to be on?  coiner?  no coiner? or some variation?  

Sure, you are also referring to leverage, yet how is the leverage structured? it seems to me that much of Saylor's(MSTR's) leverage is structured in such a way that the BTC price would have to go quite lower than it is today, and even stay at such "quite lower" prices for the terms of the various nearly free debt obligations.. such as staying 70% below current prices for 4-5 years or more.  

Another angle of the Saylor/MSTR play is that quit a lot of the debt is converted into company shares, so it is not really debt any more it is just a part of the MSTR balance sheet to have BTC on the books, and another angle is that the convertible bonds angle also get cashed out if the BTC price goes up (something like 30% or so.. I cannot remember if some of the issuances have differing terms), and so if the BTC price goes up, that convertible debt turns into equity and is no longer debt. sure they could sell their MSTR after the point of conversion, but it seems that all of the various financial instruments being issued by Saylor/MSTR (at least so far) have been accretive to the current MSTR shareholders, so they are gaining in their BTC per share.. sure if they BTC price goes down, then the accretive nature of the MSTR shares in regards to the quantity of their BTC will also go down at whatever rate BTC is going down... so sure, like a further leveraged play.. but the BTC are still not tending to be encumbered (like being used as collateral).

My own perception of MSTR risks relate to their custody arrangements (or even regulatory risk - for the USA to start to presume national security interests in regards to MSTR's bitcoin stash) in regards to their various large tranches of BTC rather than their various ways of using debt leverage to ongoingly acquire more bitcoin.


By now, you should realize that I really don't like to think about bitcoin like in those kinds of lump sum buying kinds of ways, and sure technically you are correct that in an overwhelming number of situations a person could have bought any time, including some highest price point in the past, and 5 years later be in profits.. even though there are some rare exceptions around buying BTC at the 2017 top and potentially being in the negative at various points in late 2022 and even for a day to two in 2023 when the BTC price again dipped down into the $19ks.

There is a website (and a forum thread) that specifically shows various BTC buying price points (dates and prices on such dates) and thereafter when it would have become profitable, after such purchase timelines.

Here is the thread:
HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands

I find it a bit annoying when some guys might proclaim that BTC was bought on a certain date, and then proclaim BTC's performance based on such purchase date.

Personally, it seems to me that anyone seriously getting into bitcoin, including getting into bitcoin at the top, may well still be advantaged, even by a misopportuned entry point, by continually, ongoingly, persistently and consistently buying bitcoin...

So in that regard, I consider the DCA charts to be way more representative of where any serious (non-gambling) bitcoiner should be and could be with his bitcoin accumulation practices based on the exercise of reasonable and prudent ongoing BTC stacking practices.

Even if we take a misopportuned time of getting into bitcoin at the top of the BTC market in late 2017 at or around $19,666 (perhaps a bad point to get into bitcoin since in late 2022, and even at a point in early 2023, there were windows in time in which such buying at the top would have been in the negative, even if the timeline had been slightly greater than 5 years, since BTC prices had dipped to such levels.. and we also could proclaim that in real terms BTC's performance was even worse based on such hypothetical top of the 2017 cycle purchase.   Let's describe these in terms of three Hypothetical guys.

Hypothetical 1: Most excited guy, who takes all of his 401k that amounts to right around $300k, that he had building up for 20 years, and he invests such $300k into bitcoin in late 2017 at right around the $20k top.  So he gets right around 15 BTC, which I think is the dumbest and worst of the scenarios, yet still today, that guy has a BTC spot price value of about $1.45 million and a 200-WMA value of about $645k, even though in November 2022, he may well would have had been in the negative.

Let me give you two other BTC investment scenarios that involve the same 5 -year timeline, that I would consider more realistic, even if someone had ended up getting excited about BTC and had ended up FOMO front loading his investment into BTC at the top of 2017.. or at least starting to invest into BTC at the 2017 top in the last example.

Hypothetical 2:  Second most excited guy who frontloads and then DCA's an equal amount over 5 years.  Let's say that the guy has a lifetime savings investment portfolio of around $300k, and so he uses half of it to buy BTC, and so with the various costs, he ends up paying right around $20k per BTC, so he front loads with $150k and ends up with 7.5 BTC.  Maybe the guy knows that he has a pretty decent salary, and so he can invest right around $30k per year into bitcoin for each of the next 5 years, which would be right around $600 per week, and so after 5 years, he would have had matched his initial $150k invested, and so at the end of the five years, he would have gotten an additional 14.6766 BTC, and so his total cost would have still been $300k-ish, and he would have 22.1766 BTC with a current value of $2.15 million and a 200-WMA value of close to $1 million.  Of course, after 2022 he could have had continued to accumulate BTC at some reasonable rate, if he would have considered that it would be a good idea to continue to accumulate BTC based on his then financials and including his thoughts of where he had gotten to after such 5 years of BTC accumulation.

Hypothetical 3:  Guy who invests a similar amount into bitcoin as the other two yet decides not to frontload and who just DCAs $300k into bitcoin over 5 years.  So he ends up investing $1,200 per week, and he ends up with about 29.3532 BTC, which ends up with a current spot value of about $2.85 million and a 200-WMA value of $1.262 million.

Any of these guys could have continued to invest into bitcoin after their initial 5 years of investing into it, yet my point is that their starting investment styles ended up affecting their BTC accumulation quantity and probably even their mentality in regards to bitcoin, so you likely realize that I consider persistent and ongoing accumulation of BTC to be a more serious and;/or self reinforcing strategy that it is less gambling laden as compared with guys who seem to jump in blindly with a kind of gambling mentality, a lack of persistence and also are not necessarily remaining ongoing with their BTC accumulation plan that would allow them to reinforce a kind of commitment to their investment that goes beyond just lumpsum jumping in... and I am surely not opposed to either lump sum jumping in and/or frontloading an investment into bitcoin, yet I also think that DCAing into bitcoin can complement the earlier lump summing and with an ongoing persistent buying approach, there also could be opportunities to buy more BTC at various dip price points along the way too.

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I think we have so much high expectations from Bitcoin that no matter how high it goes, our expectations keep going up. Even price of 94k is also a high price. We are not accepting simple rule of market that Bitcoin also need some break after climbing so many stairs.

- Just my personal opinion.

I think weak hands are getting shaken just before we go up again. We might see more dips, considering how whales love to scare the newbies into selling right before a big move.


It's the other way around.

Another sell off today FFS. Just when I was thinking we might be ready for the next leg up. Bitcoin enjoys testing us doesn’t it.

What chances do we have of making a new all time high before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th? I think there will be lots of games until that date, some real volatility. 

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I didn't see it listed where they gave a price they paid for them, but I think it's possible they could have been accumulating for a while.  Makes you wonder who else is accumulating.  I don't think that Bhutan is going to move the needle as they say, but it does show another country jumping in the race.  That's great news for game theory.  Hopefully we get a few more countries coming out of the woodwork and announcing strategic reserves so that bigger countries have no choice but to accumulate Bitcoin and not fall behind economically.