Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 68. (Read 26461014 times)

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Most of these are fair points, even though I have various concerns about your framing of these matters.  Surely it could be fair to assign some kind of a level in regards to what it "wealthy elite, gentlemen" as compared to merely reaching some level of fuck you status or even multiples of fuck you status, yet it still seems problematic to assign any kind of specific level to what might be elite status as compared to merely reaching fuck you status.

I have some additional difficulties conceding that anyone with something like 30 million in wealth would have all of it in bitcoin.  that seems a bit strange, yet there could be some practicality of having bitcoin and cash or if you might be suggesting that the cash levels are relatively low, so that they might ONLY cover around 6 months of living expenses.

Another angle of your 100% in bitcoin idea would be to presume that bitcoin is the ONLY appreciating asset... perhaps maybe residential properities and maybe the value of some assets, whether they are cars, yachts, planes or some other valuables that have both maintenance cost and utility value (that goes beyond their possible monetization or value storage value).

Of course, I have troubles valuating from BTC spot price rather than something like 200-WMA, yet surely anyone who might be wanting to make withdrawals against his bitcoin would be making those withdrawals at spot prices and not at 200-WMA valuations, so I would grant that much even though surely any of us should appreciate that there is so much variation in attempting to make spot price valuations that might even be transitory rather than any kind of a lasting price.

In recent times, I have been generating my own assessments that a bitcoin rich person would be able to withdraw value at much higher rates than a person assessing his wealth based on traditional 4% withdrawal rates... So sure, we can still use $30 million as our calculation, and so $30 million would generate $1.2 million of income per year or $100k per month, and so in my own calculation, a person assessing his wealth based on ONLY his bitcoin holdings would be able to generate the same income off of a $12 million amount held in bitcoin, since 10% of $12 million is $1.2 million, yet I ONLY reach that based on using the 200-WMA as the way to measure the value of the holdings, so I am still coming to similar numbers as you, yet I would be proclaiming that a person who currently has 312 BTC is already at the equivalent of the ultra rich that you describe based on the 200-WMA (that is currently at $38,500) and already being in a position to sustainably withdraw $1.2 million per year and $100k per month..

Of course as the BTC price goes up and the 200-WMA goes up, then the required number of BTC to reach that $12 million assessment with the 200WMA would go down... and maybe I would only be speculating the 200-WMA to go up between 20% and 40% per year... at least in the next 18 months... yet even if the the 200WMA only goes up at the lower rate of 20% within the next year, that would still cause a 20% reduction in the quantity of coins needed within my calculation to suggest that a year from now the required quantity of BTC to be at that same ultra rich $12 million equivalent to $30 million to be 250 BTC (312*80%), so then another year later, it would presumably be 200 BTC (250*80%).  We might attempt to presume that each year the quantity of BTC needed is going down at least 20% absent some changes in bitcoin price dynamics, so perhaps from time to time we might want to assess that the 200-WMA is continuing to go up around 20% a year-ish. 


You spend every year, so that is not really a new thing. 

I do recall once (around 13-ish years ago) buying a new car one year after I had just bought another new car.  The two cars were very similar, except the newer one had a few extra bells and whistles that I thought that I would really get a lot of pleasure out of (and I did), and part of my motive for that somewhat spontaneous and out of character move was that I was purposefully wanting to spend money based on a sense of certain mortality issues that I had going on in my head (and even in my body) at the time... so for sure, I cannot blame you for planning to act upon such current information that you have in front of you.   

On kind of a related side note (and yeah it is a bit crass, too), I was wondering what you were going to do with the BTC that you had said that you were going to set aside (was it like 0.001 BTC or something?) to pay to me and/or fillippone in the event of my death prior to you that was meant to be paid in the event that you were to live to some year in the future (I cannot recall the exact details), but it seems a bit problematic to save that BTC if currently you are potentially having issues that are putting your longevity into question.

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Seemingly. Seemingly, to the untrained eye,
I can fully understand how you got that impression.
What looked like "b/c its imgur"...what looked like
"its to too big for TalkImg"...was a safety precaution!

 

  Ohhhhhh he got the leather!  Nice   Congrats philipma1957!

#Bitcoin was 40 years of work. here

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Bitcoin was 40 years in the making, and those who hold these Bitcoins are just getting started. So it is every holder's future if Bitcoin can be held for a long time, because it is the most success in our future. Bitcoin has been created with great diligence and care since we just started and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Well at least I did not double post and I still cut the mofo off.

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drinking some bourbon as I type this.

won't solve any problems but it tastes good.

Also leased a car spent some corn for down payment. First hybrid I ever owned
the sticker and a photo of it in my crowded garage













So going to spend some corn this year just in case I don't solve a certain issue.

Explanation
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What is wealth elite, gentlemen?   I know, I know the reference.. but still.

And, I know that we discussed variations on this topic before too.. but still...

I did not disagree with anything in your post in regards to our likely being ahead of schedule in regards to where we are at .. to the extent that there might be some kind of a schedule and in that regard we would be able to somewhat count on the fractal-like movements within 4-ish year cycles..  but still..

I still cannot figure out how there can be any kind of an exact guide to the multiple or the magnitude of any historical or potential future BTC price runs.. ..

Our upcoming BTC price run could end up being BIGg-ish or it could end up being not so bigg-ish, yet surely, I don't have any real issue in regards to expecting some kind of further UPpity that may well still end up falling within a kind of expected pattern, even after all of the back and forth of this and that fate of BTC, some kind of a pattern ends up continuing to hold true.. which truly is part of the reason that many of us stay in this here thingie-ma-jiggie that we call dee cornz.... .. so then within some kind of a pattern, we end up experiencing some kind of an overdoing of the price movement  and then a kind of settling back down from whatever BTC price move we end up experiencing.

Looking back we can see that in 2017 we had 78x-ish if we count from $250-ish to $19,666, but then our settling down period maybe we only ended up with an uppity of 17x to 32x, depending on the foundation of the settling down location price area, and the further lifting off location (perhaps it could be argued to be anywhere between $4,200 to $8k?).  There's hardly any room for mostly HODLers and/or BTC accumulators to complain about that kind of BTC price performanc, especially if they did a large amount of their BTC accumulation prior to mid-2017.. and of course, the earlier the BTC accumulation, the better, including end results of a kind of likelihood that some guys might have had already transitioned into a kind of wealthy elite, gentlemen (even if they were a gal).

It seems that in 2021 we should be claiming that our BTC price run is not was not as great since we might be able to consider our bouncing off location to be somewhere between $4,200 to $8k, and so I am going to suggest that the most exponential portion of the top would have had ONLY been in the ballpark of right between 8.5x and 16.5x, yet if we might consider $25k-ish as our settling back down price location, then we only got 3x to 6x out of that whole cycle.....

So I am currently gravitating towards considering $25k-ish as our current bouncing off location, so at this time we seem to only be in the early stages of our earliest price run period and so far if we go by current prices we are right around 2.5x of our growth period, and it would surely be nice to see something at least in the 10x price multiple (which gets us into bordering on magnitude price moves rather than multiples.. and since we are still within the first leg of the possible UPpity, I personally don't want to get ahead of myself in regards to where the settling down period might end up being.. so I guess in that regard, it still seems that 12 to 18 more months of Uppity might still be in the cards for this imaginary cycle that really is not a thing, except that it seem to be a thing.   

Bringing us back to the "new" wealthy elite, gentlemen question.. which I hardly have any ability to know what that might be in terms of the "we" (also described as "a lot of us") proposition.

In some sense, bitcoin seems to be continuously paying the long term holders and putting them into higher and higher statuses, even though likely not as good at spending our money... Even Saylor. .maybe Saylor was a mere multi-millionaire and perhaps a baby billionnaire, but surely he seems to have transitioned into multi-billionnaire status.. .. so in some sense, depending on starting points and clearly having some abilities to hang on to coins seems to count for something, too.


I might need to drink more, just for fun.


Holy fuck, crypto? what is that supposed to mean?

Yeah if a guy is into crypto, then he is probably lost as fuck.

It is a fairly interesting idea and/or thread, but horey sheit Ambatman, you could have at least addressed the elephant in the room, which is the question of crypto and what the fuck is that?   Which also might mean to read the article and have some kind of potentially critical thinking opinion about it in terms of how it might relate to this topic of this thread.. .. which I am not going to deny that there is potential of the topic relating to this thread, and we might also need to explore how the article (including your seemingly going along with the article's listing of such a vague concept - namely "crypto") relates to the topic of this thread, too.

For some reason I came across the infamous Honey Badger video again today. It got me wondering when the first reference to it representing the price of Bitcoin occurred. So I found it. Here's the first reference in this thread:


The GIF in that comment is pretty awesome but won't show up on the forum b/c its on imgur, and its too big for TalkImg... almost 1.3 million views.



The next reference didn't happen until months later:


It was mentioned earlier in a different thread:


A reference from a blog on Nov 8, 2012, which is probably where it all started:


In April 2013, Jon Matonis referred to Bitcoin as the "honey badger of money" in a Forbes op-ed.

In June 2013, there was a billboard campaign featuring the slogan, apparently funded by Roger Ver. T-shirts and socks were also made.



So there you go, the history of the honey badger & bitcoin, for anyone who may not already know.

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buddy just popping away.

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drop dead buddy

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It depends..currently UHNWI level is typically considered at $30mil.
If 100% of wealth is in bitcoin:
you would need 200 btc at $150K/btc
or 100 btc at $300K/btc (150 btc at $200K/btc).

If, however, bitcoin is "just" 75% of your wealth (at 63.5K btc) and you would maintain such 75% ratio (I dunno, buy a "new" NVDA  ), then you would need:
150 btc at 150K/btc
112.5 btc at 200K/btc
75 btc at 300K/btc

TL;DR I question the "a lot of us" part. Some-definitely, surely not "a lot".

Explanation
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