Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 79. (Read 26461160 times)

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 Excellent synopsis!  Thanks.

 Here are some safety tips:

• Keep your arms, legs, and feet and hands inside this investment vehicle at all times.
• Secure all loose assets, including wallets, cash, sunglasses, cell phones, and most especially, hats.
• Don’t board this ride if you’re feeling panicky or noobish.
• Remain strapped in until the market stabilizes and you’re given the green dildo to exit.
• Most of all, enjoy the ride!

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You are absolutely right, I didn't mean these two from the picture - I posted it more as a parody in the sense that Kamala is often labeled as a communist these days - and who is a bigger communist than this little North Korean whose people are dying of hunger while he builds rockets and prepares for war with invisible enemies. Shaking hands with such a man is the same as agreeing with the policy he implements.

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so pour one out for those people with the last name "Test" and what happens to them when idiots test in Prod

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Wondering if Trump next kissed his hand in the foto at the top of this post. I saw when he talked about Kim Jong-un and I don't even know what to think about it. I get that there is some fascination for some people concerning Trump as JJG said as it is his rhetorics and ad hominem attacks and what not. But even the most hardcore Trump fans are not neccessarily dumb people, and if someone isn't dumb, how would they still not be able to figure out that Kim Jong-un is certainly not the guy an American president should claim to have fallen in love with? I mean I get the other part although that's beyond me anyway, but in this case what is going on?

Don't Americans remember how much Kim Jong-un loves Americans?



This is how Otto Warmbier was brought back from North Korea



and now find the error!

Trump was inaugurated on January 20th, 2017, and couldn't or didn't want to convince his love letter toy boy to immediately let Warmbier go. Warmbier arrived on June 13th, died on June 19th.

But apart from this story, I am still asking myself what Trump is expecting from that strategy? Does he believe that this helps to convince potential voters?

Is it so? Then beat this pair if you can.

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@smileycapital
- massive supply overhang from 5+ entities in Q2-Q3 coming to an end [15B+?]

- BTC compression lasting ~5 months already

- CZ released from prison few days before Q4 starts

- funds/whales hedging for potential recession, credit event or unexpected policy shift [risk of squeeze]

- tradfi returning to desks in few weeks

- ETF inflows extremely likely to ramp up on both BTC & ETH as liquidity increases

- balance sheet about to expand, rate cuts, satisfactory inflation, election

- historically BTC lagging behind equities during low liquidity regimes is completely normal behavior, ignore the whining influencers with their memelines, catch up trade is closer and closer, it's violent when it comes

I know the expression 'beach ball, underwater' is overused, but truly;

you're not bullish enough. you should be almost fully all-in

some of you think you know better than the market itself

you're not respecting it

respect the pump

it's coming

https://x.com/smileycapital/status/1826736933025812719



Long awaited pump, come on man, my body is ready.

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What a boring Week This was
I was to See Cattles with Wings.

Yeah, it's just impressive with can be done with AI and deep fakes, and I think it will become even more advanced in the future. And the possibilities are scary

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Of course, there are likely going to be various ways in which our individual situations are sufficiently different in order to contribute towards different motivations.  I had always wanted to transact in bitcoin when possible, so I attempted to do spend and replace whenever situations would present themselves, and even these days if I find some ways to spend bitcoin, I will consider spend and replace, yet with the passage of time, I have become quite a bit less obsessed with any need to replace in a timely manner, and surely I think that part of the reason is that I feel that I have been largely over allocated since 2014, yet maybe if we say that overallocation does not really count until you are in profits, and since the totality of my portfolio was clearly not in profits in 2014 and 2015, and it was only ambiguously in profits in some ways of calculating it 2016, and perhaps it did not become clearly and ambiguously in profits until early 2017.., so levels of being in profits can also help to supplement ideas of overallocation and change mentality in regards to feeling o.k. with engaging in various shavings.

If you think about it, even better case scenarios of your ongoing accumulation for more than three years may well make it difficult for your average cost per BTC to be below $30k per coin, and so at best you would be around 2x in profits, as compared to my having had been through the 2017 price rise (and then really failure to go below 3x of my costs - if we are roughly concluding my costs per BTC to be in the ballpark of $1k per coin), and so if you think about it, I had been dealing with a 2018, 2019, 2020 dip that at most brought me to 3x in profits, yet much of the time, my holdings were in the 6x to 8x profits in 2018, 2019 and 2020 with various spurts to 10x and 13x in profits, so it becomes less of a concern that I am really losing much by shaving off some coins here and there along the way, if I were to have to, but at the same time, I still mostly would error on the side of continuing to HODL rather than shaving any off.

So then as the profits become even greater, there seems to be even less worry to shave off some coins along the way, since the rise in 2021 had a couple of periods of taking my holdings to 60x and 70x in profits, and even the severity of the 2022 correction was at most bringing my holdings back down to 15/16x in profits..and sure there were threats to lose more of the profits that did not end up materializing, so yeah maybe there develops some reluctance to sell at bottoms, but there also is not really any major fear that selling at the bottom (even with only 15x/16x profits) would prejudice my BTC holdings in any significant and/or material way.   Of course, I did not sell any bitcoin at the bottom of the dip, and so I have been largely continuing to hold, so you should be able to imagine less and less reluctancy in terms of shaving off some profits...

and sure, there might be some better understanding if knowing the actual number of BTC, which many of us do not tend to share those kinds of details, and so we merely think in terms of percent which should be enough to help to concretize the numbers, even if you might want to imagine if that the amount could be 1 BTC or 10 BTC or some other number, such as the more than 0.63 BTC that I frequently like to mention.


I frequently like to think that a couple of cycles make more sense than one cycle in terms of the time-based withdrawal, yet with price based withdraw, I think that there might be more flexibility on that.. yet surely, each of us have our own particulars that we might be trying to address in terms of whatever might be our various current cashflow options that would be used prior to even using the BTC as you mentioned..


Yeah, Philipma1957 seems to really come out with some doozies, especially when we have a bitcoin audience here, including that some guys might still be in their early stacking years, and it is not easy to keep stacking for a whole cycle, which frequently is needed in order to even get to a place in which the BTC accumulator will have accumulated enough BTC in order to really start to see the additional options that become available to him mostly because he stayed focused on stacking sats and did not get overly distracted into other assets and/or currencies, and even worse to get distracted into shitcoins, though I am having my doubts about IBONDs being very much better than some of the shitcoins that might have been a better thing to stack since a lot of shitcoins are at least somewhat correlated to bitcoin (not trying to speak too positively about any shitcoins, but just trying to be realistic in terms of comparative performance of US IBonds compared with bitcoin or with some of the shitcoins that might have also outperformed the US IBonds based on there being more correlated to bitcoin.. even though shitcoins are more likely to have rug pulls too...or other uncertain dumping circumstances).

Of course, we also know that bitcoin is not guaranteed as an investment, yet historically those who have focused on accumulating and holding over a couple of cycles have tended to do quite well in terms of even bitcoins historical compounding of value, even if there might be several doublings of bitcoin's value (price) the compounding starts to add up, and those guys who are cashing out every year (which Phil has historically done that) and still has difficulties thinking about not cashing out every year, so the guys cashing out every year have been disadvantaged in terms concretely experiencing the doublings because they sell and rebuy and they are likely ongoingly raising their base and failing/refusing to accumulate bitcoin.  There is no evidence that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting weaker, and in fact there are several ways bitcoin's investment thesis is getting stronger, even though surely the steepness of bitcoin's upward exponential price curve is likely lessening with the passage of time.

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