Topic: Who is really controlling the Bitcoin market. - page 11. (Read 2337 times)

When does an asset gets hard to "manipulate" and becomes part of efficient markets is probably a question for the academics. The good thing is that as @hd49728 pointed out, all of this information is openly available on the blockchain and several analytic websites have evolved there own parameters for following Bitcoin's price. All of them point to one thing that the Bitcoin market is indeed efficient.

Same cannot be said for crypto in general where whales can easily manipulate prices. The less said about NFT manipulation, the better.

Although Bitcoin trading seems to be stabilized, Bitcoin is still subject to sudden events like an announcement from Musk or extension of ETF grants by SEC. This means that even though people and institutions are using it, the regulatory environment is uncertain enough to cause major shifts.

The combination of all hodlers are also a big factor, the whales base their moves on how the public moves, if there's more demand then they want to jack up the prices and when they feel like it's the right time for them to sell since the market is going crazy. I think everyone who is in the market or is interested in entering the market are the drivers of the market.

If you really want to know, the whales are the biggest market drivers. This goes for literally any other market however. Anyone holding an extreme amount of said asset inherently has a lot of control over the price. This is because they are able to flood the market with whatever asset their holding ultimately sending the price downwards.

There's no escaping the big-bag holders.

Whales see profits roll in from BTC pumps. After that the market tanks (from what I understand) and that starts the bear market. Even though the term "market manipulation" is quite old, great thing is we've still in good hands. A price of $50k shows that Bitcoin is still following these major patterns. A continuation of this trend seems likely. I'm looking forward to the next few weeks as we're at this point now! We have no idea what's going on. It's time to stop pretending we have no idea what will happen one or two years from now with all these prophetical posts.

Everyone who participates in the market but Peter Schiff says it's the whales who basically influence people to buy like Bukele in order for the price to go up and promises the ones they've influenced a good return. I'm not sure to believe that but he could be right after all we participated in this market. If you sold your BTC that means you have also participated in this market.

The difference this time around is that Bitcoin is becoming part of the Macro Finance which basically even the politicians and governments are buying BTC which hard to say the whales are just the only ones who makes the price movement.

I have heard, read or been told that there is a very low amount of Bitcoin on exchanges,
and as a result it is easy for certain people and/or exchanges to move/manipulate
the market but I'm not sure if that is actually the case but it sounds right to me considering
so many people are HODLing.

One other thing with the BTC / crypto markets that does not exist in others is the ability for just about anyone with a few dollars and an internet connection to get involved with it.
With some obvious exceptions, you can sign up at any one of the dozens (hundreds?) of exchanges, throw in some money and buy and sell crypto. You really cannot do that with other financial instruments.

That makes it a lot more difficult to control / manipulate. Whales can shift it a bit, as can major financial institutions. But you can't control everyone everywhere.

-Dave

You need to study more at first how Bitcoin works. Then you would learn how Bitcoin prices work as well. Bitcoin price fully depends on the Bitcoin community in short words. Once investors enter Bitcoin means they become a part of the community as well. So investors aren't out of the community. To be more realistic, once a major part of the community thinks they should invest in Bitcoin then demand increases, as a result, Bitcoin prices go up. The same happens when a major part of the community thinks to sell then price start dump and the rest of the community become panicked. That's how Bitcoin price works. There are a few whales that could manipulate the price for a short time, not for a long time.

Who in your question is Mr. Market that is made up of many entities which can be person, institutional investors, capital ventures. Together they combine what we have, a very Powerful Mr. Market.

Bitcoin market is better than stock and other markets because you have very transparent public ledger and transactions are on-chain. So if you can do on-chain analyses or you manage to buy membership of good on-chain analytic services, you are on it very accurately and on time.

With on-chain analyses, you can get good overview on what Mr. Market is doing and make your own plans. You can have such transparent analyses in stock or other markets.

There is a school of thoughts that the whales control the market, but how they control and move everything is the big question. Are they colluding which each other? because I doubt that a single whale can shake up the market is that is what you are trying to say.


Basically based on the tenants of economics: supply and demand.

As far as predicting the price, no one can "accurately" says what will be the price. Everyone is just making a wild and educated guess.

Unfortunately, the concept of predicting is just a hypothesis based on what they analyze from market behavior. nothing is 100% correct. Therefore, if in the end there will be no one who is really right in predicting, we only need to check prices in the futures market. When the limitations of predictions make it difficult for you to know when the market is in a big correction, then wait that there will always be news to inform it all.

just saying "supply and demand" is a weak high school F grade students thought.

although there were only 11mill bitcoin in circulation in 2012. the markets had market orders of 1000 coins per order line. so the market supply was HUGE.

in 2021 the bitcoin in general circulation is ~19mill. yet the markets have market orders of under 1btc per order line. so the market supply is small.

back in 2012 there were only really 2-3 exchanges (mtgox, bitstamp, btc-e) so the amount of dollar being deposited into market was huge.
in 2021 there are many dozens of exchanges, meaning the same 'dollar' deposits are diluted and spread out. meaning each market/exchange has less dollar deposited each. meaning the demand per exchange is lower.

what you learn very quickly is it doesnt matter how many coins are in general circulation. what matter is how much coin an average exchange has in its deposit balance to be used for market orders. and when the dollar demand shrinks, so does the market order size of coins shrink. to meet the demand or lack of demand.

this is because coin holders dont want to flood the market with coin, as that would shoot them in the foot and cause a price drop.
if someone wanted to sell 10btc in 2012, it can be done in seconds.
but when the demand(buyer) is low. the seller only sells 0.01btc at a time to not influence a coin flood. and slowly sells coins over a longer period.

..
things that do influence the 'price' is different to what influences the 'value'
imagine the price charts, but instead of 1 line(price) imagine there are 2 lines.
the second line is a hidden line(the value line) which sits way below the price line.

this value line consists of influences like the mining cost, and the amount of coin acquired at certain price points which cause a resistance to drop below a periodic low.

like right now i cant see the price dipping below $20k again. because in pretty much every country no one can mine for under $20k, so no one wants to mine and sell for a loss. and if the price of bitcoin reached $30k you will see the countries with more expensive mining costs decide to just buy coin, thus help prop up the price to avoid it continually decrease.

as for the first line, the visible price line. this is a combination of the acquisition value plus emotional/social speculation. but what you do find is that if you calculated the most expensive country to mine, that cost is under $80k. so no one would want to buy coin for over $80k right now, as its easier for people in all countries to just mine coin cheaper if the price surpassed $80k

so within this $20k-$80k window. is the volatile yo-yo game of speculation.

you cannot predict the price. but if you imagine the 20k to 80k range. and compare it to current price. you can gauge if the price is either near value or near premium. and then you can guess if the sentiment is desirable to buy(near value) or over hyped and ready to sell(near premium)

You meant investing, and not trading. There are traders predicting the market daily and also frequently trading.

It depends. For example, if there is a massive bear market, then what next? Bull market. Also I can predict now that bitcoin will still reach all-time-high but the time to attain this can be long.

Very possible the market is manipulated to an extent. Also yes it depends on the extent of adoption. Be it any, no one that invest and leave its bitcoin alone and not sell that will lose, the price can first decrease, but expect increase and all-time-high. This could take time, but it is what you should look up to and not the unnecessary aspect of the market if you want to invest.

I like to predict based on long term which is all-time-high. Bitcoin will still attain all-time-high but it can be long.

Some people are expecting bear market all because bitcoin has increased so significantly. Even if there is near market, bull market will follow and all-time-high will later follow as usual.

Any financial market can be manipulated, but with the current size of bitcoin and daily transactions, it is almost impossible to manipulate the price and you could end up just losing your investment.
About no. of investors, it plays a major role along with supply flow.

Demand and supply are the main market factors and they are influenced by secondary factors such as, news, economic crisis or boom, technical aspects etc. No one can predict the market, but you can make an educated guess, using technical and fundamental analysis.

Not everyone is necessarily "predicting" it, some are just hoping that a drop would happen so they could buy lower.

Manipulations happen with markets in general. And while manipulation happens with bitcoin as well, it's not as huge of an effect as most people think; especially that as bitcoin's price rise and changes hands, manipulation gets harder and harder.

Depends what you specifically mean with "predict" in this case. Most bitcoiners think, not necessarily "predict" that bitcoin will be priced a lot higher in the future, though they know they can't predict short-term movements.

People always say that they are are waiting for the price of Bitcoin go down before they go into the market for trading and at the same time nobody can predict the market.
Now is the market been manipulated? Or it all depends on the numbers of investors who invested.
There is something we need to understand about Bitcoin.
The more the demand of Bitcoin the more the increase take place.Can anyone predict the market?
Because people are waiting for the decrease in price and are they predicting the market or not?
I don't think have a better understandingn on how Bitcoins