Topic: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? - page 4. (Read 6913 times)

It doesn't mean that he leads on the poll automatically he is already a winner on upcoming election there's still many month left and other politicians can still do something to change the mind of people. Also they can use the past controversy faced by Trump and run a propaganda for it so his image will be destroyed.

That's why until no final decision we can't say yet who's gonna win and take the set. Although he have high chance to get back on the power so I guess he just need to make his name looks appealing to people who continue to support him despite of what happen from the past.

I don't necessarily agree with you. It is almost 100% confirmed that Trump is going to win the GOP nomination for the POTUS 2024 elections. And as per the current opinion poll numbers, in case Trump is allowed to run, there is a 80% to 90% chance that he'll win. Now the only uncertainty is regarding whether he will be allowed to run. Some of the Democrat-oriented judges have threatened Trump with disqualification. But everytime these guys go ballistic about Trump, the latter gains more sympathy from his supporters and even from the neutral voters.

Going back from politics to betting; I have to say that Trump bets are not looking that reasonable at the moment, dude both has a very long road down the road that he can be bashed as we have seen even from Fox News (which was weird to see) all the way up to election day, and that means he is going to be trashed a lot more than Biden who doesn't have to have a campaign the same way since he is already the president.

I think it's clear that we are going to end up with something a lot more valuable if we want people to bet on Trump. This doesn't mean that he will not win, of course he can win, but just because he can, doesn't mean that odds should be this little, we need higher odds so that betting on him would be worthy. 2.20 at least, or even 2.40 if possible, which would be great and I would 100% bet on him at those odds.

What you are describing is basically how most of the financial industry works.

They pick a winner, and charge a fee for that.

It doesn't matter if that stock or game or whatever, wins or loses. They always get their fee.

On the other hand, the person paying for the financial advice will eventually lose. Except some lucky ones. But that's a bit like a casino.

Yes, some people will make money with AI betting. But also some will lose.

The thing is that we will only hear about the ones who won.

If the Democrat-leaning courts ban Trump from competing in the elections, then there will be a massive sympathy wave in his favor and he will just make sure that Ivanka becomes the GOP nominee and wins by a landslide. I don't think that the Dems will be stupid enough to do it, but you never know. And now coming to the European countries, they don't have much influence on American elections. Europeans can rant whatever they want about Trump, but in the end the American voters may completely ignore their complaints.

I get that you like big multipliers and all that, but even if Biden's health condition deteriorated much during these months, it would be still very unlikely the Democrat party ended up choosing Michelle Obama as an emergency replacement for Joe Biden, you know.
This incoming election is pretty much dependant on the choice taken by the moderates and centrists of the United States, and putting Michelle Obama in the ballot may push away those moderate Republicans or independents from voting for her. Whether we like it or not, the presidential culture of the United States has showed to us that the safest bet for a party who wishes to win is to nominate a white man as candidate. Obama broke the cycle, but that was an exception, not the new norm. So even if Biden got sick and needed to withdraw from the race, the Democrat party would take another person who may not even be in the public spotlight at this point of time.
Though, if you really want to risk that money, then by my guest, because in the very unlikely case she decided to announce her candidacy, then you would be already in profit, regardless she has a chance to win the presidency or not.

Trump is now confidently winning the primaries and many are betting on him. But what will happen if in the summer, when numerous criminal cases against him are heard in the courts, he is found guilty and removed from further participation in the elections? Who will replace Trump from the Republican Party? But this also needs to be taken into account, based on the fact that Trump has already made several crazy statements with which he has set European countries and NATO members against himself. If Trump wins, serious conflicts could occur even with US allies and this will give impetus to his opponents. After all, then the United States will weaken its position. Don't US citizens see this?

Despite Putin’s statements that he wants to see Biden back in the presidential chair, this is a common political game. Putin is betting on Trump to put pressure on and destroy Ukraine. Then the United States will clearly be an unreliable ally in the eyes of the world and the image of this state will seriously suffer.

Why? Considering Biden's bad health she has all the chances. I would bet on her right now, 10x multiplier is good enough for me,



but for some reason sites I usually use for sports betting, aren't accepting those kinds of bets currently.


I think half of them are bettors. What they don't realize is that Trump's going to jail soon.


I'm planning to place some bets during that time too.

Well, I know this I kind of off topic, but I would have never expected to see such a powerful technology to become open source or having some open source models at reach of the common people of the internet to experiment with, though. I am certainly worried about the possible negative impacts this advance could have in the field of gambling and betting.
If there is a very important percentage of people out there on the internet who is paying attention to the Artificial inteligence and believe asking one of them could help them to get better odds, then it means the current odds and the difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump could have been influences by a large number of people allowing a machine to make decisions on where to put their money into his electoral year in the United States.
Let us assume most of the AI believe Donald Trump will be the winner, leading to an increase of volume for Trump in the betting market. If Trump manages to win this year, then those who used Artificial Intelligence will believe AI is an actual game charger to make money out of predictions, when in reality, it could have been a big coincidence and have nothing to do with the advantage of the AI. 

All the republicans who supported him saying they shouldn't invest into Ukraine's independence, will now support him and say that they should help Ukraine a lot. Politics has always been like that, whatever your guy says is true and right and whatever the other guy says is wrong. Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to bash any republicans here, same would be true for Biden, if Biden wakes up tomorrow and decides to stop helping Ukraine, there will be democrats who will say "yeah enough is enough we should stop Biden is right" as well.

It makes no sense to have two party system, you have hooligans of each party and they will support their party no matter what happens. There are few people who change parties time to time, but very few of them, not a lot.

Because there are open source models out there, the answer most certainly would be yes.

Once you remove the checks and allow people to ask whatever they want, they will ask what is important to them, and I would say many people are doing that at the moment.

It's just a matter of time when open source models are better or at least more useful than the private ones.

Not sure what will happen, but it's interesting to see this develop in real time.

This is similar to the change between web1 to web2, hopefully this time the open source way of life wins.

Trump does not actually give an immediate solution to the problems of the average American person, though. All he does is to talk about the perceived problems and then, he proceds to promise to fixe them all, he does not give any details on his plans to improve the life of the average American population.
For example, he talks about build ming a wall with Mexico and start massive deportations in order to get the immigration problem fixed, though he does not talk about the legal issues behind doing things like that or whether the judges would be able to stop those efforts in case he actually tried to pursue them in the short term in his presidency. Another example is the healthcare system in the United States, he talk about how Obamacare is a mess and does not solve anything, he talks how he will be able to replace it with a better system but does not go I to further details on the thinks he will do to provide better health to the average person living in the United States. Heck, he has even gone as far as talking about the withdrawal from Afghanistan and how Biden did all wrong, but he does not say anything about what he could have done different in order to get a clearer withdrawal and without leaving so many military equipment behind.
See, Trump does not talk about Politics, he just complaints about his personal grievances (both political and legal) and point out the problems the average person struggles with, he does not offer solutions, he does not offer plans.

What is what a populist looks and acts like, it is not a coincidence Donald Trump is specially fond of authoritarian Leaders and he alledgely follows their steps and study their movements to catch the attention of the masses.

Seeing the interaction between these candidates, I think that the US problem is indecision, I don't know, but I have seen a lot in the news that support for Trump is strong, I don't know what the internal situation is like in the US, I know that They are having many problems with the immigration of many people from different countries, and that could be a very bad trigger for Biden because he has allowed it, however, I heard that Biden has already stopped the policies to enter that country, together with Mexico he had It was understood that a Colombian could enter Cancun faster with the help of a "Coyote", and then they got involved, but now they are with the policy of deporting, now things are getting different because Trump's warning when he said he was going to remove all those who have entered like this so that the country is much better.

I don't know, but the average American might think that this is a great option for their country, so it is an immediate solution that they want, for security and to not end up with people with bad habits.

In this aspect, Trump gives an immediate solution to a latent problem in the USA, and this is well seen by the common citizen. What other things can Americans like about Trump? I think it is radical, and that obviously the USA needs a change, but this change must be at all levels, even economic, I have not reviewed the inflation rates, but I think they are high, I do not know if the current economic policies have been On the other hand, but considering how things are going, they are not encouraging, and I think this is what is alarming, I only see the news, which is very different from what is experienced there, you have to live in the country to know what Which is required in Relaida, but from what I see Trump resonates very well and is a great option.

Do you believe the new Artificial Inteligence technologies are somehow involved in the distribution of odds between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the market of betting? It could be possible, actually. I have see people trying to ask political questions to the AI on internet, but in several occasions the computer refuses to generate or engage with political questions, in that sense, the companies behind them are afraid of allowing their programs to be offensive somehow.  
Still, there is a chance someone managed to ask an AI about the election and effectively, they got a possitibe answer for Trump. I don't know, to me it is a quite weird situation to see odds behaviing this way, nothing drastic has happened beyond the typical strange political speeches of Trump and the conflict on the middle east. Those odds could be either part of some Russian intervention campaign or simply the American people showing their disfavourable opinion against Joe Biden and his handling of the conflict.

I personally was considering to bet in favor of Trump, I regret not doing it before his odds changed so dramatically as they did in these lastest couple of months. Truly, when one wants to bet, one is not supposed to over think before placing money on the table.  

I disagree.

The odds should be closer to 1.60-1.70. Because it is almost confirmed that Trump will be the presidential nominee from GOP. And he is far ahead of Biden in all the opinion polls (in part due to the situation at the southern border). So if a lot of people bet in favor of Trump, it is actually going to be risky for the sportsbooks. I am tracking the POTUS opinion polls in RCP, and there are very few which are putting Biden ahead. And given the fact that Trump won the 2016 elections despite losing the battle for popular vote, this is very significant.

Interesting to see these numbers.

Basically they think that Trump most surely will win.

It's an interesting thing to see how much people think something will happen by simply looking at a number.

I guess AI can get good at predicting things based on these numbers as well.

It's almost like those people who are betting on those 1.90 odds are asking the bookies to just keep their money.  

If I were a sportsbook operator, of course I would want a lotta people wagering on Trump's election.

That because since Trump served as president several years ago before being defeated by Biden in the next election, there has been lot of support that tends to be really solid for Trump, clearly this is an advantage that can be exploited to win the Republican nomination.
Nikki Haley of course will not be able to beat Trump and of course thanks to Trump success in becoming president and winning the 2016 election, he also gave the Republican Party the majority of votes.
This is the reason that up to now Trump is still able to dominate the vote tally, he is an intelligent figure and is very good at winning over everyone hearts so they can give him full support.
Nikki Haley will never be able to get that opportunity as long as Trump is still one of the Republican candidates, after all Trump has also won three internal elections within the Republican Party.
If Nikki Haley continues to insist on running then she will only get results in vain, the only chance she has is to try to run for vice president.

Yes, and of course the differences in the way the voting system works in US elections will be very different from other countries and we will even see these differences are very striking.

Its never impossible for anyone to get elected as I understand it.   If its not on the ballot you are allowed to write it in and if enough do that then its a done deal.   However I dont know why people think Ms. Obama who doesnt want the job will have even one in a hundred chances when we know full well Hilary Clinton could not get the job done with all the full support and apparently was desperate for it to happen; you might as well bet on Clinton if you are going that route and I dont recommend that either.    
   6 to 1 odds is diabolically bad, thats what Trump should be if we're being honest.  He was very lucky to get the job first time around and he has destroyed alot of those reasons to such unlikely strength now, plus may be prevented physically anyhow.   My personal take is they will not exclude Trump legally not to save him but for implications on democracy itself which is too great to impede for a knarly old fight with two old men tbh.



Currently too young and by implication appearing too young in a future election to really be a serious contender.   Alot of the electorate are quite senior, to favor a brand new player in the game is again possible but improbable.   The reason perception matters is money mostly, do you want to spend a billion on an outside chance; with Trump or anyone that rich they can finance a campaign differently.

Traditionally, it seems that in the United States the incumbent president is re-selected through a process of primaries within the same party, it was the case when Trump wanted to get another four years in the White House in the last Presidential election, there was not a Republican primary process. So it seems very unlikely there will be a Democrat primary process this year for the Democrat party to choose an alternative to Joe Biden. Besides, Michelle Obama has pretty much not chances to win against Trump, the USA is neither ideological nor in a societal way prepared to put a woman in the presidency of the country, she being black and a woman could play against herself and Democrats are not willing to take unnecessary risks in 2024. They are already taking too many by not going with a younger and more charismatic leader.

In the 2028 election I am expecting to see the face of Tucker Carlson in boards and his name in the ballots, he could even end up running against AOC, which would be pretty hilarious, keeping in mind how Tucker has lashed against her in his defunct Fox show.