Topic: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? - page 3. (Read 5468 times)

The most important conclusion that can be concluded from these events is that the United States of America is losing on almost all fronts :
- The West cannot continue to impose sanctions on Russia because of their need for energy and the world's need for Ukrainian wheat.
- The West is also on the way to finding an agreement with Iran because it is able to modify the global market through its energy products and its strategic location, which can deliver supplies to those who deserve it in Europe and Asia.
- Saudi Arabia is making matters worse by accepting another currency (not the dollar) in exchange for a portion of its oil sales.
- China will not hesitate to intervene militarily to preserve its interests (Taiwan).

Who is left on the American side today?

The European Union's best shot at replacing Russian gas imports this year is likely to miss the mark, analysts predict, exerting further pressure on the region's economy.

The EU plans to replace two-thirds of Russian gas imports by the end of the year, as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to wage on. The shift away from the country's gas supplies became even more urgent after the country's state-backed Gazprom reduced flows to Europe by 60%, citing a delay to repairs on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that runs to Germany beneath the Baltic Sea.

In a couple of days a lot of things could be clarified. The fate of US and EU economy depends on Iran's decision whether to remove the sanctions on the West or keep them there to increase the pressure. Removal could mean oil below $50 otherwise the $100+ is the price that the Western world has to get used to.

After 3 years the Chinese president Xi Jinping is traveling to West Asia and the results of the visit would determine a lot of things.
It's hard to predict the results too. What we know so far:
- Al-Saud is going to be given incentives to shift their sales to China and use CNY instead of USD which means US dollar is going to continue to dump more which means more inflation which means more inflation exports to Europe which means more inflation in EU.
- Some Russian sanctions were eased by Europe in a total media silence (exactly why I call the Western media a heavily censored one) which may be because they already predict the previous point and want to be able to replace the Saudi oil with Russian again
- China has been pulling out of US economy. At least $500 billion was pulled out of US stock market in the past couple of days alone. Both the Chinese government and the private sector are slowly pulling out.
- Finally we have Iran that would make the big difference. If JCPOA is signed and then Iran agrees to increase imports to the West the price would fall and all China did would be undone and their plans to invade Taiwan with decreased consequences would fall apart. But this is unlikely and the pressure on EU and US would most probably remain high. Meaning Iran would increase exports to China while not allowing Al-Saud to increase exports to EU either. The result of all the above means invasion of Taiwan in a couple of months and EU+US economy falling apart faster (US is already in a recession) then both Iran and Saudis would have the upper hand not to mention that higher energy prices that means a much bigger profit for all energy exporters.

So I'll wait to see what the result of this visit is going to be. It turns out sending Pelosi to Taiwan only ensured China that they can't take back Taiwan peacefully like they did Hong Kong.

In that case, Pakistan need to work towards increasing the nuclear power capacity in the country. They don't have large deposits of natural gas or oil and also they don't have much hydropower potential. Under these circumstances, it is more beneficial to increase reliance on nuclear power. Even smaller nations such as Egypt and Bangladesh are installing new nuclear power plants as they know that it is the cleanest and cheapest form of energy available. The only issue is that initial capital may run in to a few billion USD and Pakistan may struggle to secure this much funds. But if they take this step, in the long term it will be hugely beneficial for that country.

After the European feeling that the security of its energy has become hostage to any dispute with Russia, and the need to think of suitable alternatives, there are those in Iran who believe that the country’s possession of the second largest gas reserves in the world after Russia qualifies it to replace the Russian giant in supplying the european countries with quantities of gas through pipelines passing through Turkey and the Black Sea countries to Romania.
The process of establishing the infrastructure will certainly take time, but this is the ideal solution for Europe.
The important question here is will Europe be able to disengage between Iran and Russia by using the Iranian nuclear file? And will America allow it? Europe will be required to stand in the face of the two powers America and Russia.

The start of works to extend the channels between the two countries (Iran and Pakistan) was inaugurated in 2013 during Ahmadinejad's period, with the expectation that this would last for two years, not exceeding 2016, but the works have been intermittent since then and the line has not yet worked.
Actually , Pakistan buys liquefied gas from Iran on the black market .

Ahhh, you got it right dear.
Till 9 April 2022 everything was reasonably fine. Patrol per liter price was 150 Pak Rupee while USD was trading around 180 Pak Rupee. After Imran Khan was removed from power (since he visited Russia and refused to side with USA on Ukarine issue), dollar jumped to 250 Pak Rupee in less then three months and patrol price also went upto 250 Pak Rupee. I don't have exact figures on how much electricity and gas prices has gone up, but you can figure out the increase from patrol and usd rates.
There is project between Pakistan and Iran for suppling gas to Pakistan, the idea kicked off in 1994 but even after 30 years gas pipeline is not constructed fully to supply gas. The point is EU and USA have no objection in importing gas from Russia but forcing other countries like Pakistan not to import gas from Iran to meet energy needs. Dual standards.

It's really sad to see what's been happening to Pakistan's economy ever since the government applied for that loan from the World Bank if I'm not mistaken. All the rules they've been forced to enforce domestically to receive that small loan (like the removal of subsidies that led to increased prices) is harsh. Not to mention the limitations on importing energy.

Pakistan is too afraid to import electricity from Iran because of usa pressure. Electricity from Iran is only utilised in parts of Province balochistan for household purposes, there are no transmission lines from Iran to industrial zones in Pakistan. Pakistan energy shortfall is in between 7000 to 10000 MW and this 100MW won't help in curbing loadshedding in Pakistan. Iran Electricity is cheap but Pakistan prefer to face energy shortfall then to import energy from Iran.
Imran Khan tried to buy Oil from Russia and that's main reason why his government was toppled and pro USA parties are brought in power.

I'm afraid that situation is a lot more complicated than what it seems like in the media.
It was part of a much bigger plan by US to make the best out of their defeat it Afghanistan. Keep in mind that the plan wasn't just to invade Afghanistan. As US commander Wesley Kanne Clark revealed, the plan was to "destroy 7 countries". They started the job on 6 of them but couldn't achieve their goals in any, also they couldn't even begin working on the 7th. The 7th country was Iran.

The recent leaked classified information shows that since United States does not have the military capability to face Iran, the replacement plan was to start another proxy war. The first step was to create a threat in the East to suck Iran into Afghanistan to fight the Taliban extremists armed by US (in the east) while 17000 armed and trained terrorists by US in Northern Iraq (west of Iran) attacked Iran and at the same time the corridor Iran uses for exports to Europe would shut down in North West by Baku army as they would invade Armenia. Meanwhile US navy would start threatening maritime safety in the south (the only sea access Iran has) from afar without actually entering any conflicts.

Long story short, this plan failed miserably as Iran's leader neutralized all threats at the same time without any conflict.
- The eastern conflict was neutralized by not backing the fake resistance in Panjshir while opening negotiation channels between the two fighting sides in Afghanistan.
- The western threat was neutralized by arresting or bombing all those 17k terrorists into oblivion in occupied parts of Iraq (last step was those hypersonic bunker buster missiles that hit the main terrorist base in Erbil earlier this year which also shook the nearby US consulate).
- The Southern threat was neutralized with the show of force and halting any passing US warships in Persian Gulf warning to sink them without hesitation if they became a threat
- The North Western threat was simply neutralized when Baku realized "the big plan" has already failed and all eyes are on him and the fact that we haven't forgotten that Soviets annexed Aran from Iran and he is considered a usurper. All it takes to liberate our city is an afternoon.

Some opposition does not mean al-Saud is going against the boss. They have seen some weakness and have been trying to capitalize on it to maybe get something more from the deal. For example they get closer to China and Russia to oppose the fact that US stopped fully backing them in their genocide against Yemen or suspended F35 sales. They also know that even if US wanted to invade an oil rich country they would never do it at the peak of energy crisis at home.

Oil output is the same but also it is about the capabilities. Ever since Aramco was hit, they haven't been able to fully rebuild it which is why they can not increase oil production despite being ordered to.

They still haven't fully opposed the colonizers which is why when they cut the heads of more than 30 people 10 of which were children, you don't even hear a word of it in the news or from human rights foundations!

I disagree with this because of how Saudi Arabia works. They are super rich but they heavily depend on imports due to lack of self reliance. All it takes to topple the regime is to sanction them. Basically see what happened to Iraq when they were sanctioned right before the invasion (a million died of hunger each year!) and multiply that by 100.

They know this very well which is why they try to keep the balance between opposing the boss and obeying the buss.
They have no military power to stand against US either. Their coalition couldn't even finish the poorest and weakest country in Asia called Yemen for 8 years.

That would have happened a decade or so ago, but now the chance of Americans toppling the regime in Saudi Arabia is minimal. Biden, before his election made a lot of threats against Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. But a few days ago, he went to Saudi Arabia to beg in front of him to increase the oil output. Mohammed bin Salman is aware of all the hostile actions coming in from the Americans and he has kept a neutral stance in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict unlike what the other American lapdogs such as Germany and Japan did. Main difference between Saudi and Russia is related to Syria and Iran. If they could resolve these differences, then it is going to be mutually beneficial.

In fact, tantrums about the "difficulty of replacing gas from a terrorist country" are carried only by the propagandists of the terrorist country and their corrupt "girls"
If you take it without prejudice, and without denying reality, and look at the "gas problem in the EU", you will see that only 3 significant countries have... no.. not a problem, rather a difficulty. Moreover, the complexity that they themselves created by "durzhba" with the country as a terrorist. The only problem now is to build terminals for receiving liquefied gas, and build part of a new gas distribution network. Oh yes .. In some countries where the rulers have sold the interests of their countries, industrial enterprises will be forced to slightly change the technology for receiving and treating gas (gas, like oil, has quite distinctive chemical and physical characteristics depending on the place of production).

At the same time, quantitatively - gas in the right quantities, for Germany, Italy, France and Hungary to stop sponsoring a world terrorist by buying gas from him, there is on the market, or will be additionally produced in the near future.
You have probably noticed that "such a scarce resource" as gas and oil has been getting cheaper lately. The market must have gone crazy, if you listen to the Kremlin propagandists, right?!

But EU looks to replace gas from Russia with Nigerian supplies . I do not thing Nigeria will have the capacity to supply gas to the whole EU. And I am not even buying the idea of Nigeria replacing Russia. Europe is the one who under-developed Nigeria so giving them gas again as for me they will use it to under develop them again. Unless they (EU) is fully ready to develop Nigeria to the standard level then gas should be sold to them

Of course. I dare say from day one nobody wanted to use USD for their trades but they accepted it for difference reasons while trying to get rid of it ever since.
Even Europeans dumped it at some point the first time they realized US has betrayed them and broke the promise about dollar being backed by gold. It even crashed the dollar price. In a short time however US forced them into petrodollar and revived dollar again. But they don't yet have any new tricks up their sleeves today to replace petrodollar with.

I don't think it can expand globally though. I mention the new world order here many times but in this order US and the dollar isn't going to go away, it just isn't going to be dominating. US still has a lot of colonies, from Saudi Arabia to Europe. They are asking "how high" when the order comes to "jump". If for example al-Saud barks too hard, they are going to be invaded and turn into a worse version of Afghanistan and US would simply take over all their oil.

Like the way things are going right now, many countries are fully ready to help those countries that Russian refuse to supply them gas based on the war between them and Ukraine which is not allow manufacturers to carry out their production activities in their various countries. I believe, there will be a solution for all the countries that involved to survive this situations with the help of other countries that has enough gas in their land because some of those countries that involved cannot cope with the scarcity of gas in their land than to seek for solution to those countries that has a enough gas to  replace the position of Russia.

The process of abandoning the dollar in international trade did not begin today, but previous attempts were severely suppressed by the United States (in Iraq and Libya). But with the suppression of Russia, the United States has some technical difficulties, and this gives hope that the abandonment of the dollar as a world reserve currency and the base currency in energy trade will gradually expand around the world.

Liquidity is not a problem, each of these digital currencies are as liquid as the governments want it to be. They are also in their early stages so you don't see them much or hear a lot of news about them. But they are doing fine, for example the Chinese one surpassed handling $10 billion worth of transactions a while ago.

IMO the problem so far was that the countries could not agree on what to replace USD with. Each country prefers using their own currency and make that dominant. But this has some problems like the fact that countries could print their own currency as much as they wanted and as long as that is not backed by anything it becomes problematic (what US has been doing) and we'd be back where we started.

This has been changing though. Both SCO (China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Iran) and BRICS (China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa and Iran) are made to ensure that happens. BRICS already announced the replacement this year. Unfortunately there hasn't been enough details about it.

Back in April I made a topic that was in a way my speculation about the future specially the part about possibility of Atomic Swaps. I didn't post the second part of the speculationthere:
I basically speculate that the USD replacement is going to be a bunch of cryptocurrencies created by each country and backed by what that country can offer. For example CryptoRial could be backed by a combination of gas and oil since Iran has the largest reserves of those. Venezuela's Petro could be backed by oil and maybe gold since they have both (mostly oil). Same with other countries, go with what they have which is either energy or gold.
These cryptocurrencies could be used to trade with each country independently and without needing a middle man like SWIFT that could ban or sanction a country stealing their money. The exchange rate would be fixed to the backing commodity.

P.S. Keep in mind that we are talking about changing a world order that has been in place for decades. It will take a long time, specially since the existing "order" resists being replaced.

None of the CBDCs have the liquidity to handle trans-national trade, especially on oil and gas. Venezuela attempted this, and they failed. China came up with their e-CNY and I am yet to hear about any concrete movement. Indian government made a similar announcement more than a year ago, and the development is yet to start. The big problem is that USD remains the first preference for petroleum trade. None of these CBDCs are capable of replacing USD from the market, no matter how much the governments support them.

That is not how one bypasses sanctions. If a country is giving in to the US sanctions they won't trade with Iran with or without cryptocurrencies. Not to mention that Iran already has a lot of energy exports to all its neighbors regardless of the sanctions!
For example regarding energy, recently a new contract was signed between Pakistan and Iran to export an additional 100 MW electricity to Pakistan on top of the current 104 MW. Between 200 to 1200 MW is also sold to Iraq. That is on top of exports of gas and other stuff.

$10 million is too tiny in $10 billion monthly exports that Iran has! It is also probably with Russia and using Iran's CBDC called Crypto-Rial.

Well there is new development going on and that is Iran has placed a 10 million import order using cryptocurrency. If this test went successful then Iran can easily bypass sanctions imposed by USA and trade easily with its neighbouring counties that are deficient in energy but fearful to trade with Iran due to usa pressure. Its not clear which crypto is used but that not important. Important is this test of 10 million usd import.
Iran has rich reserves of gas and can supply to world to meet energy needs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iran-makes-first-import-order-using-cryptocurrency-tasnim-2022-08-09/