Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 11. (Read 11916 times)

yep  a -6 now then a - of any number next jump  will be very interesting.

Well Diff adjustments going the good way is a nice offset with the current price. If this keeps up it would be interesting to see what the next retarget period brings us.

I will say one thing  we will have a large drop.

It is 13 days and 22 hours since last jump.  and we have 152 blocks to go.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,807,493,130,902 (-5.25%)

Adjust time:   After 152 Blocks, About 1.2 days

Hashrate(?):   46,213,105,966 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes
3 blocks: 32.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   14:25 (2.9 minutes ago)

we could do a -5 to -8  here.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Nov 16 2018     6,800,000,000,000     -6.00        48,000,000,000 GH/s  looks like this could be correct

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so going as low as aug 24 numbers could happen here.

boy  the Nov 29th to Dec 1st  numbers  will be very interesting to behold

Well I'm not a day trader and like a sure thing. Best to those risking BTC for a shitfork.

If you didn't saw that video already ... can't stop laughing each time.
Bitcoin Cash Behind the Scene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=16&v=01CegebttEU

It will settle  over the next month.

I hedged  and grabbed some Bch..

So now I have BCH and BTC

Ah, so jerks are dumping bitcoins to subsidize their bitchcoin habit.

First fire shot, BTC under 6K$ @ 5.8K$

Fake satoshi dumping BTC price
https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/1062751765601361923

Bitmain will use user hashrate to support Btrash ABC
https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1062782025629876230

If 2 Btrash chain coexist , I expect 10-20% diff contraction.
Profitability of those chains will rule BTC diff.

Brace for impact ... D-Day tomorrow

Depressed Roger here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFU1o-0oU7A

Unless the rumors are true and Bitmain needs some capital?

I imagine diff will drop along with market unless we see the rebound happen. I'm sure Tone Vays feels proud of himself now.

Seems like a weird time for sell off, more than just manufacturers cashing out.

Not specifically, but until sales pick up I'm still running off savings and my savings are worth 10% less than they were a couple hours ago (and about half what they were when I started saving). Need that for R&D on about seven new projects I finally have time for (that will have negligible effect on network diff).

It was obviously Phil.

To keep difficulty flat he had to tank the price to offset the new efficient hardware being launched.

Unless you are getting ready to pay bills today/tomorrow.

i watch this video on youtub of some one tell people what capable of achive.  it about bitcoin. do watch it help alot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUxU1XXlUTI

So whose idea was it to tank the exchange again?

Diff trails prices.  So staying flat makes sense since price is flat for a while now.

For sure gear/diff caught up to prices of last December .  So diff will be flat for a while longer due to flat prices if that theory is correct.

April 1 we were are 6700 price
Nov 12 we are at  6400 price

So that was 7 flat months

If you want to use the August 24 number I have been tracking from we stay flat till March .

But two other factors are bch/fork and of course newer 60 -70 watt a th gear.

I was think flat till Jan 1 but maybe not.

The next retarget period will be a decent indication of how much hashrate was just mining BCH to build up a bag before the fork, just with the timing to see who comes back to BTC right away. A lot of Hash will stay there from the parties with loads of power and competing interests.

---

I was wondering do we have a decent idea right now of how much of the spikes and valleys on the hashrate charts is the combined variance of miners. Right now it's hard to figure with large amounts of hash shifting with the BCH fork.

I was watching a convo somewhere about someone speculating on their theory about Diff rising. It led me to something that I hadn't thought about with Diff. The effects corm with a pretty significant lag factor. When things start to go good or drive up interest to put more hashpower online, it could take a month maybe more for the Diff to react and increase, the same can be said about the decline. This person was talking about the rises that had been going on for a 6 month period this year. When I started to look at it, those were just the lingering increases from the Fomo late last year and the subsequent cooling period where miners where still flying off the shelves into January.

Then here we are where Diff has been essentially stale feeling no pull in one direction or another. Now a few months from now I think we are going to see the pull upward from the New gear which is 1 of the 2 factors I thought would cause a move.

The retarget happens just after the fork, probably Friday night (European time)
We have right now a max estimate drop of 6.5%, and the price is still going down for bch, doubt the combined price of both versions will somehow manage to raise revenue enough to compensate for the last drops so a part of the hashrate will comeback after their stupid war will be over but nothign spectacular (i think)

Not impressed with the new s15 and t15, so whoever bought some cheap s9 or t2 can still breathe relieved for a while.
If I were to make a bet I would say there is no chance we see something over 10-15% till the end of the year. But I suck at predicting things.

https://twitter.com/redtheminer/status/1061864690198863874

yeah a lot of mining on BCH  loading up for the new fork.

New fork is the 15th of NOV.

So we will have a change after fork.

we will drop 2-4% this jump
we will go under sept 7 numbers

Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701

Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,333,650,225,214 (+2.08%)

Adjust time:   After 713 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):   45,970,633,292 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.9 minutes
3 blocks: 32.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   

look at chart and note the red line is negative,but that  there is a 44,000,000,000 to 57,000,000,000 flow in hash rate due to BCH/new fork

Current BTC Hashrate 45,196,820,818 GH/s

Btrash fork sucking hashrate
https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1061350647595974656