Topic: Will Russia Emerge As The Next Dominant Superpower - page 18. (Read 8957 times)

War is not a computer game to have an easy outcome.
US invaded Afghanistan more than 20 years ago and spent $7 trillion and couldn't achieve anything at all there. They were fighting cavemen (literally) who had no airforce, no radar, no missiles, no tanks, so support from any other country, not even half decent weapons.
In comparison Ukraine has a military, has airforce, radars, tanks, missiles, and receives billions of dollars of support.

The goal was never to occupy entire Ukraine. The goal was to annex east and south of Ukraine that are strategically important to Russia and leave the rest. Half of Ukraine doesn't want Russia while the other half does. They can never rule over that first half, so they would remove Zelensky with someone who that other half can accept but is at the very least anti-NATO if not pro-Russia. The first part of the plan is already over.
Funny enough, this is similar to what US tried to do in Afghanistan and failed because unlike Ukraine, nobody wanted US in Afghanistan so they were kicked out in defeat.

Its what they do. China vs India were tried too which they flamed it too much in the borders which there was a time they were actually shooting incident. But then India and Russia are favorable to Chinese projects in their region so they are more inclined to make friends, every country from east going to Africa I think will benefit when they make friends with China.

However Russia may not be a guarantor of global security. China has a diplomatic way of doing things which could led to serious path. These two are in tandem but many would truly see its China that is more advance.

Depends on where you are living in. Here in India, people in general have a favorable opinion about Russia and the trade between the two nations are increasing at an astounding pace. Crude oil imports from India have gone up by 15x during the last three months. Although it is true that Russia is not being viewed as a superpower similar to the case with the US, a lot of people in India view that country as a powerful friend. Regarding China, the opinion is largely negative due to the ongoing border dispute (we had a border skirmish last year, in which dozens of soldiers died on both sides).

What people do not understand is that in order to be a superpower, people do not need to like you, but they need to be like you. For example, you may dislike the usa, but you would want to live there or at least be like them, we all know this, not the whole world of course there are people who hate them, I am pretty sure most Iraqis do not like them for example but at least majority of the world do. Russia is not like that, neither is China, these two could be looking powerful either economically or even militarily (which they are not even that) but everyone aside from themselves hates these two nations, hence they could never be superpowers because they lack conviction.

Russia a superpower? This is a superpower that is putting chips from dishwashers into their tanks because they're out of military grade stuff.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-says-russia-using-chips-from-dishwashers-in-tanks-sanctions-2022-5?IR=T

Russia used to be a superpower because it had nuclear weapons and that's what the world was afraid of. They were also flexing a lot and showing off their warships and jets, but we can see now what these are worth if a fleet flagship equipped with 3 types of anti missile weapons cannot even detect an incoming missile and gets sunk, soldiers abandon tanks because they have no fuel and they're found eating military rations that expired 5 years ago.

This was what I thought also when the war broke out. If Russia is the superpower that they think of, they should have conquered Ukraine in the first week of invasion, but they couldn't. And now, it is taking months and with the help of other countries, Ukraine seemed to stand their ground. So if Russia is the superpower here, they can easily take this small country with very limited resources. I am also not following anymore what are the details and updates on this war. I just want it to stop so people won't suffer anymore. But thinking of Russia as the next dominant superpower, I don't think so. This war event clearly shows they are not.

A new package of sanctions, and Russia is getting closer to the status of a "superpower" The forecast, even of the state Central Bank, is a drop in GDP to 12% (with a forecast of growth of 2% before the start of a terrorist attack on Ukraine), exports will fall to a historical minimum, "stable recession" with a forecast for 2022-2023 to become stronger than it was in 1998, when "great Russia" was begging for chicken legs, bread and sausage all over the world
Oh yes ! I almost forgot - sanctions and embargoes! Now we started with oil, then there will be land deliveries of oil (now this applies to tanker deliveries). Then gas. Just perfect conditions to become a superpower! As I understand it, is it an honor for Russia to be the first among the world's economic losers?

Sure, that would be an excellent strategy if the US hadn't already cocked things up with all the quantitative easing, stimulus checks, and who knows what else that's resulting in serious inflation right now.  I look at the price of gas every day, and it only seems to be going up and up, much worse than over a decade ago when it was above $4/gallon.

Meanwhile, I'm not even sure what's happening in Russia and their conflict with Ukraine.  It's almost as if that news story has lived out its life cycle--which is bizarre to me, because I would have thought they'd have owned Ukraine within the first two days of an invasion.  These days I'm never quite sure what to believe when I see it on the news.

You are right it will make a difference but for importers such as EU not exporters such as Russia.

It's pretty simple, it's a matter of supply and demand and the fact that neither of them have changed.
Just because EU doesn't [supposedly] import Russian oil it doesn't mean they don't need oil anymore. Instead it means EU is going to buy it from elsewhere. But since the production has not increased anywhere else (ie. OPEC) that means if EU is importing oil from lets say Saudis they have to replace one of Saudi customers like China (just an example) but that also doesn't mean China won't need oil; instead that means that now Russian oil is going to Saudi customers that were replaced by EU (China in this hypothetical example).
In simple terms this means if Russia was exporting for example 1 million barrels of oil, they are still exporting 1 million barrens of oil but to different customers.

So why is it screwing EU while helping Russia?
That is pretty simple too. EU is now buying oil at a much higher price (almost $120) compared to before ($40-$60) so EU is spending a lot more money while the increased prices also cause inflation in those countries.
On the other hand Russia is selling the same amount of oil for a much higher price which means their revenue is almost doubled after the "embargo".

On top of that, China (the biggest economy in the world), is going to receive a small discount on the same oil which would put their economy further ahead. Their products will be cheaper than what is produced in EU so they would take over more of world's economy while replacing EU customers. This would shrink EU's GDP...

P.S. Any comment on Germany gas being cut off and how they were predicting a $240 billion hit and a "deep recession" in Germany as Reuters put it a couple of months ago?

What Russia did with an invasion to Ukranina certainly had conducted a deep study, the USA was experiencing a crisis of economic inflation and a lot of losses from the war that had been carried out, China continued to grow and stronger the economy and the military so that if there was a world war then China would help Russia Many analysts believe that if the invasion of Ukraine is successful, the country around the country such as Slovenia, Georgia, Latvia and so on will be the next target.

Not only the key rate figure is important here, but the fact that Russia is now in the phase of reducing the key rate, trying to weaken the ruble from excessive strengthening, and the West is in the phase of raising the key rate, trying to cope with rising inflation. And this is a great tactical advantage for Russia, because lowering the rate is easy and pleasant, but raising the rate is painful - given the large debt load of Western countries and inflated bubbles in the stock markets.

EU oil embargo? Besides Hungary and pipeline oil? An attempt by the European Union to put a good face on a bad game, so as not to lose face. Russia will sell less oil for the West and get more money for it - that's what the oil embargo is in its current form.

The NATO bloc has already announced 6 rounds of sanctions and the Russian economy seems to be more or less intact. When the first round of sanctions were announced, everyone was expecting Russian to collapse and the Ruble to nosedive to exchange rates similar to what Zimbabwean dollar had in 2009. But the economy is doing quite well, and the Ruble has actually gained against the US Dollar. And it looks as if they will do good, as long as the revenues from oil, gas, coal and potash fertilizer continue to flow in to their coffers.

Sure... 11%... just around 10 times more than US and several times EU, UK, etc... rates, makes no difference to the argument whatsoever.

We can now talk about the recent European oil embargo approved today. THAT will make a difference.

Why don’t you say in your reasoning that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already lowered the rate twice, most recently by 3%, and now the key rate in Russia is 11% with a tendency to further decrease? Why don't you also say that Russia, unlike Western countries, has a very small debt burden and the issue of debt refinancing is not too acute?

Again, you are mixing concepts. The volatility of the rouble is based on the competitiveness of the currency in the global market, not on the GDP. On top of that and if you are speaking of debt in particular, you should look at the interest rates. You cannot keep the rate that the RF central bank has set without damaging growth.



I am afraid that I am going to explain some very basic economic concepts here:

Just so that even  those with little understanding of what this means: US finances it's debt at 0.75% interest. Russia has to pay 17% (as of today) for people to hold roubles - along with breaching contracts and demanding payment in roubles. Now you got the full picture and why debt at .75% is not really an issue.

What happens when people can get a 17% just by lending the money? Very simple: they do not invest and they may choose not to buy beyond the strictly necessary. This situation cannot hold - it is temporary and the valuation of the rouble, in my view, will be permanently damaged with the new diplomatic stance of the RF.

Lack of investment has a side consequence on countries that are heavy exporters of commodities - production requires CAPEX. High interest rates make CAPEX projects and productive investment less attractive as just by holding you get 17%.

Just to put an example: If you have 1000 USD and you leave them during 5 years at 17% you would get 1873 USD ("risk free"). That is a "trash bond" and the RF has become exactly that: a trash debtor.

At this point on the discussion and to make it fair, I would ask you on what do you base your claim that a country with 1/15th of the GDP of the US and subject to sanctions is going to be the "next superpower".

OCDE data to 2060 paints a very different picture (unfortunately I cannot link a picture, so just select Russia, US, OCDE and China). The next superpower will not write Latin or Cyrillic characters.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm

I dont believe that Russia will become a dominant superpower. By looking on history, every 10-20 years something bad happens to Russia, like wars, financial crisis and etc. 2022 - Ukraine, 2014 - devaluation of ruble, 2008/2009 great recession, 1998 - another devaluation of ruble, 1991 - USSR collapse, 80` - deficit of everything.

Now the world will face consequences of Ukraine-Russia war. Hope that it will end soon and things will start to improve and get back to normal. And expect something bad in +2030. With such continuous and endless improvement of bad times of past, it is hard for Russia to become a dominant superpower. Some people say that Russia faith is to suffer always. Just look at the list of wars involving Russia. Fighting all the time, never had time to rest.

I agreed with your post except this part of it. No one country can or should have all the power ever. Take a look at US. It wasn't always this corrupt regime spreading death and destruction around in the world. The centralization of power in one place corrupted the regime and they abused the hell out of it too.
Let's not forget that Russia in Soviet era has also done a lot of shit and spread separatism in the region.

One thing that makes me happy about the emerging new world order is that no one country has all the power. Multiple powerhouses have shaped that are pursuing shared interests and those that don't fall in line are going to be left behind like Turkey that is currently too dumb to know they got stuck in a hellhole they dug for themselves in Syria simply because they refused to accept the new world order.

The threat of an embargo has driven up oil and gas prices, so Russia is making more money even by selling less physical volume. And there is no embargo itself, Russia has simply shifted the logistical focus from Europe to Asia.

Mostly expired ammunition is consumed, which otherwise would have to be disposed of, incurring additional costs. Instead of spent weapons, new ones are being made, the Russian military-industrial complex is fully loaded with work and orders for years to come. An armed conflict on a foreign territory is a very profitable event from an economic point of view.

Russia is not Zimbabwe.

You forget a few things......

Russia made most of their money from Oil and Gas sales....and a lot of countries are now moving away from being dependent on Russia for Oil and Gas. (So they are losing money now)

They are spending lots of money to replace weapons like rockets & Tanks that were lost in the Ukraine war. (Expenses) and the loss in income due to the sanctions are crippling some of their companies. (A huge blow for their economy and tax revenue)

Look at countries like Zimbabwe... that was also sanctioned by the West during Robert Mugabe's rule. 

Really?

Like this:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/russian-ruble-surpasses-brazils-real-as-years-best-performing-currency-5400804

What do you base your claims on?