...
By march 2016 ±3months we may see:
- less "bubbles".
- the log rise transitioning into asymptote to saturation.
- $40k per coin ±$20k.
Very bullish but what will make a BTC be worth 40k$ are real things happening in the real world : USD losing its value, people understanding they are brutalised by the state, people losing their faith in the financial sector
Simply more people will consider BTC as having worth.
Probably all of the factors you listed are in play, plus others, for example:
Merchants realising bitcoin is headache free when compared to credit cards.
The chart above shows BTC has already risen from $0.05 to lets say $500 (of course it has bubbled higher).
5c to $500... that's a 10,000X multipler.
To get from $500 to $50k only requires a further 100X multiplier.
If it did get to $50k by 2016 then there would be ~16M bitcoins in circulation, total market value ~$0.8 Trillion.
0.8 Trillion is not so big globally.