Topic: Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm) - page 3. (Read 24717 times)

Possible explanations:

1. The key is brains. Early accepters are smarter, in general. To invent bitcoin you have to be very very smart, to understand and appreciate you have to be very smart, and so on.
2. The key is knowledge. For the 4 years of trading they've became B.Sc of trading.
3. The key is managing your emotions. For 4 years they got enough emotional experience to be able to control them.
4. The key is natural talent. 4 years of natural selection took ones with it. The rest is broken or just left the forum.

Well. Heaps of versions and no idea which one to chose. Just like with trading. There always a lot of plausible theories about why the price must go up and lot - about why it must go down. And I always choose wrong one  

This is one of the observations I made during the last year that is still puzzling me. Many of the "old hands" (let's say, registration 2012 and before) seem to have a very keen nose for the market state in general terms.

I'm not talking about the most general intuition, the 'in retrospect, any price turns out to be a good price per coin on a long enough horizon' idea. I share that one, but it's more of a shared hope we have here, but it hasn't been tested that much yet.

I mean a more specific one: the one where the legendary (previously: hero) members have a pretty good feel for when the market is about to turn, both towards 'hopeless, prepare for a serious correction' but also at the other end, 'don't expect that much panic anymore'. It's not universally shared among that class of members of course (some are almost always too bullish, some almost always too bearish), but a good number of the old members that I follow seem to be able to get a rough reading on what the state of the market is.

No deeper insight I can offer. Just something I believe to have noticed.

Yes, I am different.

Mmmh.

So you are talking about "delusional greedy kids" wanting to get rich quick buying now, but you wanna do the same and "catch the train", only lower.


You are no different from the delusional bulls you are currently laughing at, mate.

I still think that Bitcoin will hit double digits, it will be just slow and painful path for many of you here, I will ride the ship only when most of you delusional cultists and get rich kids abandon it....

I still think that there is a good chance that we are heading slowly to double digits... and I wont buy a single Bitcoin before that, I wont regret my decision if I "miss" the train, simply because if Bitcoin will succeed and become widely used then it really doesn't matter when will you buy, in fact it will be even better safer and more profitable to buy later when there is a clear picture about its use.

How is this different from #2?

Is knowledge something else than an efficient configuration of neurons?

Possible suggestion #5

Our brain is the original neural network. More data for training (usually) means better results of the trained network. Legendary members simply had the most exposure to market behavior over time, hence more training than the rest of us.

This is one of the observations I made during the last year that is still puzzling me. Many of the "old hands" (let's say, registration 2012 and before) seem to have a very keen nose for the market state in general terms.

I'm not talking about the most general intuition, the 'in retrospect, any price turns out to be a good price per coin on a long enough horizon' idea. I share that one, but it's more of a shared hope we have here, but it hasn't been tested that much yet.

I mean a more specific one: the one where the legendary (previously: hero) members have a pretty good feel for when the market is about to turn, both towards 'hopeless, prepare for a serious correction' but also at the other end, 'don't expect that much panic anymore'. It's not universally shared among that class of members of course (some are almost always too bullish, some almost always too bearish), but a good number of the old members that I follow seem to be able to get a rough reading on what the state of the market is.

No deeper insight I can offer. Just something I believe to have noticed.

Yeah I agree with that too. In fact I feel I was foolish (I could blame bad luck, but luck is what you make it!) for not taking more decisive action when I first heard about it (nearly set up a CPU miner when you could still CPU mine! but I got distracted and did not come back 'til it was ~$1)

In a hypothetical run up to $10k, people often cite "It doesn't matter if you bought at 300 or 400" and to some degree they are right.

If you bought $1200 of BTC, you end up with $40k or $30k.

Now some people (greed) will lament the $10k they "lost" not catching the bottom, instead of the $28,800 profit they actually made. Anyone lamenting a 24 bagger needs to have a word with themselves, imho. Prior lamentation of this (greed) will cause them to keep waiting, well past the bottom, because they are convinced its going much lower. The longer and higher the run up goes without them relenting the steeper the price they eventually have to pay to get in. Lets say they are shrewd enough to realise that once we hit $900, we probably are on track to bust through the last ATH and do another run up.

So they manage to get in with their $800 for 1.5 BTC They still end up with $15k

All of this is what people think, regularly. What it doesn't take into account, is that once you caught the bottom. To get those theoretical gains, you ave to also time the top. Which is subject to the same forces of fear and greed.

Now if you alone are the "one" that can pick the bottom at $300 and the top at $10k, then you can turn your $1200 into $40k. Never look back and live a happy life.

If you are a typical guy that is too late at the bottom, and have to panic buy on the way up at $800. Then you are too greedy at the top, ride the crash and end up panic selling at 60% discount. You can enjoy turning your $1200 int $9k. A 7 bagger is pretty cool, but those "losses" not having bought at the real bottom and the real top are going to wrankle you. All you'll think about when you are spending your $7800 profit, is those other guys that got lucky and how its so unfair that you never make it out like those other guys.

Thats because you are thinking about dollars whilst looking at the future of money.

I say again don't bet the farm, but please don't be 'trading' like you think you are some kind of Gordon Gecko. You are just a guy(girl) OTI that is lucky enough to have discovered a massive opportunity.

You can try and use it to make a quick buck. Or you can think about how the future might pan out, and what you need to do to make sure that in any of the various scenarios you don't end up being the person the laments how the other guys "got lucky".

I'm an "other guy" and its insulting when people tell me that I got lucky. Holding through massive crashes and not panic selling, continuing to accumulate during downtrends & buying when fear is all around. Carefully skimming during run ups and not panic dumping way before the correction comes in. Managing principle, hedging risk. (Running a business and family finances whilst doing all of it). Fighting strong emotions, making smart decisions for three years now, is somehow lucky? I'm not a trader, or an investor, or anything. I'm just thinking really hard about how I live my life and the decisions I make and how best I don't shoot myself in the face doing something stupid. I was lucky I found bitcoin early, but since then its been all me.