A real live bottom call! That's a rarity these days among all this pessimistic sentiment.
I've got mixed feelings. We didn't get the classic high volume BTC capitulation I was looking for, but then again we didn't in July 2013 either. I'm still concerned this may be short term relief rally type action before the final shakedown. Bitfinex longs are still stubbornly high.
I understand your "concern." However, I believe they plan on a short squeeze at current price level $8,500 to $8,700 before taking it up to $9,300 to $9,500 price range. People have been in "fear" for quite a while and this is an opportune time for them to accumulate more coins with less competition for those coins while "fear" is still prevalent. THEN once the price action is taken up to the $9,300 to $9,500 price range, we will see many novice traders begin to experience FOMO and buy in at or near the top of the $9,300 to $9,500 move; ONLY to experience "fear" once again when the price action comes back down to around $8,300 to $8,600 price level. Many will sell then at a lower price because of "emotions." Then the price will chill there for a bit before continuing back up once again and they buy back in at a higher price than what they sold.
That's my two cents...
I don't doubt this is possible, a move to mid $9k to re-test the
descending triangle breakdown, I'm still waiting on this to occur hence avoiding adding to any short positions. However, why the price would find support again in the mid $8k's doesn't add up to me personally. Of course it could happen, but I don't see any reasoning at present. For starters, the 200 Day MA by that time will be even closer to $9k than it is now, so the price would again be stuck underneath it in a bearish fashion. A rejection from the triangle breakdown would be detrimental to the price and confirm a longer-term downtrend in my mind. The chances of the $8k area holding a second time within a short time span seems very low in this sense.
I also read you don't rule out $6k, so well aware you recognize this could happen too. Call me boring, but I'm still waiting for the target of the triangle breakdown to be achieved before laddering heavily, which Bitcoin in the past as respected more than most asset classes. Either that or a decent buying opportunity that currently doesn't present itself in my opinion.
Just throwing in my two satoshis to the speculation.
