BTCUSD - New Video Publication, titled "Could This Be the Beginning of a Correction? Read Comments..."
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZohwozYR-Could-This-Be-the-Beginning-of-a-Correction-Read-Comments/
Topic: Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 35. (Read 12112 times)
Update in the 2-Day TF with focus ONLY on Green Secondary and Black Primary 1.618 FIB Extension. I would not be surprised if we have a pull back from current price; which is actually a Secondary .618 FIB extension from the Black Primary FIB.
31.12. - 28.06. cme future contracts end soon.
Might correlate with your time prediction.
Might correlate with your time prediction.
I didn't think of that... thanks for sharing...
By the way,
31.12. - 28.06. cme future contracts end soon.
Might correlate with your time prediction.
Might correlate with your time prediction.
It can be hard to know where the price will ultimately go to until the last couple of days before we actually get there. In the meantime, what's more important is to identify if we have upward or downward pressure. If we have OBVIOUS upward pressure, that means stay long/hold. If we have OBVIOUS downward pressure, that means stay short/get out.
This is why I focus on letting followers know if we are having upward or downward pressure and for approximately how long can we anticipate the upward or downward pressure to last. Currently, it appears upward pressure will continue for BTCUSD and ETHUSD until on or around June 30, 2019. The 3-Day TF seems rather obvious to point us to upward pressure continuing till on or around June 30th.
With ETHUSD and BTCUSD both appearing to have upward pressure until on or around June 30, 2019, we could reason most other ALT/USD pairs will continue with upward pressure until on or around June 30th as well.
I'm working on another video publication later this afternoon or this evening with focus on the NEW 2-Week Candle with updated indicators that began June 24th. I'm also looking forward to June 26th with the creation of a NEW 9-Day candle with updated indicators. We should have even more insight into the current upward pressure and how long it may last once a new 9-Day candle begins. Cause there's a CHANCE this upward pressure COULD continue until the 2-Week Candle beginning on July 8, 2019.
If we do continue with upward pressure until the 2-Week candle beginning July 8th, we can anticipate one more TIME correction (sideways) before legging uucp again. In the meantime, anticipate more upward pressure till on or around June 30th before we see a potential TIME correction (sideways) -OR- PRICE correction (decent drop of 25% or more).
We will have a better idea if we have a TIME correction or PRICE correction by June 26th or 27th; when we get a new 9-Day and new 4-Day candle. So, I'll provide a video update later this evening to provide a more detailed explanation of what I have stated in this update. You can expect another video publication on June 26th or 27th once we get a NEW 9-Day and 4-Day candle.
This is why I focus on letting followers know if we are having upward or downward pressure and for approximately how long can we anticipate the upward or downward pressure to last. Currently, it appears upward pressure will continue for BTCUSD and ETHUSD until on or around June 30, 2019. The 3-Day TF seems rather obvious to point us to upward pressure continuing till on or around June 30th.
With ETHUSD and BTCUSD both appearing to have upward pressure until on or around June 30, 2019, we could reason most other ALT/USD pairs will continue with upward pressure until on or around June 30th as well.
I'm working on another video publication later this afternoon or this evening with focus on the NEW 2-Week Candle with updated indicators that began June 24th. I'm also looking forward to June 26th with the creation of a NEW 9-Day candle with updated indicators. We should have even more insight into the current upward pressure and how long it may last once a new 9-Day candle begins. Cause there's a CHANCE this upward pressure COULD continue until the 2-Week Candle beginning on July 8, 2019.
If we do continue with upward pressure until the 2-Week candle beginning July 8th, we can anticipate one more TIME correction (sideways) before legging uucp again. In the meantime, anticipate more upward pressure till on or around June 30th before we see a potential TIME correction (sideways) -OR- PRICE correction (decent drop of 25% or more).
We will have a better idea if we have a TIME correction or PRICE correction by June 26th or 27th; when we get a new 9-Day and new 4-Day candle. So, I'll provide a video update later this evening to provide a more detailed explanation of what I have stated in this update. You can expect another video publication on June 26th or 27th once we get a NEW 9-Day and 4-Day candle.
Update using the 3-Day TF:
My Bi-Weekly Update for my chart, titled, "Bitcoin History From 2011 to Present Day Using Wyckoff Method."
Someone said in a message ABOUT THE CHART ABOVE, "Neat but how can one trade based on this, good for hindsight???" So, I will provide a brief explanation below:
The purpose of Wyckoff Method is to gain an understanding of market conditions in an effort to determine the trend and supply/demand ratio in order to determine what phase of Accumulation or Distribution we are in while being aware of what events can potentially occur in each phase. Being aware of what occurs in each phase SHOULD lead one to adjust their trading strategy based on events that occur in each phase to minimize risk.
Most importantly, good indicators and an excellent understanding of how to use those indicators should be applied to help determine when a particular event within a phase is about to come to a close or begin in order to make your trade accordingly. Here's an example of what occurs in each phase for 2012 Accumulation Schematic:
Breakdown of each phase in the Accumulation Schematic that began in 2012:
Breakdown of each phase in the Accumulation Schematic that began in 2015:
We are currently in Phase D of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances ("Sign of Strength" moves above previous resistance) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions ("Last Point of Support" moves that test previous resistance that becomes support) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the Trading Range. "Last Point of Support" in this phase is generally an excellent place to initiate or add to your bags and/or initiate profitable long positions.
Having a good understanding of HOW to use your indicators can help one determine when a "Sign of Strength" is potentially drawing to a close in order to potentially sell or initiate a profitable short position. Having a good understanding of HOW to use your indicators can also help one determine when a "Last Point of Support" event is about to begin so one can buy more coins again and/or initiate a profitable long position.
This was only a BRIEF explanation of HOW one would use Wyckoff Method IN CONJUNCTION with good indicators. There are other things to take into consideration as well. Such as, what kind of trader are you? What amount of time do you have to trade to determine what kind of trader you can AFFORD to be in order to minimize risk? What event has or is about to occur within a Phase of a schematic in order to have an idea of what to anticipate THEN have a look at your indicators to see if what you "anticipate" has a high potential of occurring. If that potential appears highly likely, then prepare to make the trade WHILE keeping in mind other factors to avoid making mistakes and reducing/managing risk.
Money management also plays a large role in managing risk. Which is why it's also important to determine what amount of time you can invest to trade to determine what KIND of trading you will initiate. For instance; If you determine you have time to scalp in very short time frames, a number of things have to be considered to determine if market conditions are conducive for scalping. I'm not going to get into details. I said this would only be brief. More details will be on my website in the near future.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Someone said in a message ABOUT THE CHART ABOVE, "Neat but how can one trade based on this, good for hindsight???" So, I will provide a brief explanation below:
The purpose of Wyckoff Method is to gain an understanding of market conditions in an effort to determine the trend and supply/demand ratio in order to determine what phase of Accumulation or Distribution we are in while being aware of what events can potentially occur in each phase. Being aware of what occurs in each phase SHOULD lead one to adjust their trading strategy based on events that occur in each phase to minimize risk.
Most importantly, good indicators and an excellent understanding of how to use those indicators should be applied to help determine when a particular event within a phase is about to come to a close or begin in order to make your trade accordingly. Here's an example of what occurs in each phase for 2012 Accumulation Schematic:
Breakdown of each phase in the Accumulation Schematic that began in 2012:
Breakdown of each phase in the Accumulation Schematic that began in 2015:
We are currently in Phase D of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances ("Sign of Strength" moves above previous resistance) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions ("Last Point of Support" moves that test previous resistance that becomes support) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the Trading Range. "Last Point of Support" in this phase is generally an excellent place to initiate or add to your bags and/or initiate profitable long positions.
Having a good understanding of HOW to use your indicators can help one determine when a "Sign of Strength" is potentially drawing to a close in order to potentially sell or initiate a profitable short position. Having a good understanding of HOW to use your indicators can also help one determine when a "Last Point of Support" event is about to begin so one can buy more coins again and/or initiate a profitable long position.
This was only a BRIEF explanation of HOW one would use Wyckoff Method IN CONJUNCTION with good indicators. There are other things to take into consideration as well. Such as, what kind of trader are you? What amount of time do you have to trade to determine what kind of trader you can AFFORD to be in order to minimize risk? What event has or is about to occur within a Phase of a schematic in order to have an idea of what to anticipate THEN have a look at your indicators to see if what you "anticipate" has a high potential of occurring. If that potential appears highly likely, then prepare to make the trade WHILE keeping in mind other factors to avoid making mistakes and reducing/managing risk.
Money management also plays a large role in managing risk. Which is why it's also important to determine what amount of time you can invest to trade to determine what KIND of trading you will initiate. For instance; If you determine you have time to scalp in very short time frames, a number of things have to be considered to determine if market conditions are conducive for scalping. I'm not going to get into details. I said this would only be brief. More details will be on my website in the near future.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Hi Exstasie,
Thanks again for dropping by to share your thoughts. Apologies for the delay. I have a LOT going on. I have another Discord meeting with my Manager of Operations and I.T. Manager in a couple of hours. Currently preparing for that meeting once I finish my BTCUSD update on TradingView and here on BitcoinTalk.
Here's my BTCUSD update just posted a few minutes ago on TradingView, titled, "Upward Pressure CONTINUES to June 24 AT MINIMUM. We Could Continue With Upward Pressure Much Longer." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3ty7rTD4-Upward-Pressure-CONTINUES-to-June-24-AT-MINIMUM-We-Could/
I figure we are heading into a blow-off top as well. This idea matches up with one last round of FOMO after a breakout above $10K. It's obviously an important psychological and technical level that will trigger buyers once broken. I like your $11,300 level but I could also see a thrust above $12K. Blow-off tops are so hard to predict!
Yes, I could see my 0.382 FIB at $12,297.17 reached quite easily over the next couple of days.
If we reverse here soon without breaking $10K, I could see a return to $6K. 40% corrections are pretty typical in a bull market for Bitcoin.
[/quote]
Yes, 36% to 40% corrections are very common in BTCUSD pair.
Thanks again for dropping by to share your thoughts. Apologies for the delay. I have a LOT going on. I have another Discord meeting with my Manager of Operations and I.T. Manager in a couple of hours. Currently preparing for that meeting once I finish my BTCUSD update on TradingView and here on BitcoinTalk.
Here's my BTCUSD update just posted a few minutes ago on TradingView, titled, "Upward Pressure CONTINUES to June 24 AT MINIMUM. We Could Continue With Upward Pressure Much Longer." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3ty7rTD4-Upward-Pressure-CONTINUES-to-June-24-AT-MINIMUM-We-Could/
Earliest POSSIBLE date of reaching exhaustion is still June 22nd; as previously noted in post #111. However, June 24th looks more likely when looking at the 2-Day TF. We will need to keep an eye on the Daily, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's until then.
I figure we are heading into a blow-off top as well. This idea matches up with one last round of FOMO after a breakout above $10K. It's obviously an important psychological and technical level that will trigger buyers once broken. I like your $11,300 level but I could also see a thrust above $12K. Blow-off tops are so hard to predict!
Yes, I could see my 0.382 FIB at $12,297.17 reached quite easily over the next couple of days.
IF ANYONE seriously believes we will drop substantially below the 21-EMA in the weekly if and/or when we finally see a correction, you may seriously need to re-consider your "hopes" of a substantial drop below $6,500.
If we reverse here soon without breaking $10K, I could see a return to $6K. 40% corrections are pretty typical in a bull market for Bitcoin.
[/quote]
Yes, 36% to 40% corrections are very common in BTCUSD pair.
Earliest POSSIBLE date of reaching exhaustion is still June 22nd; as previously noted in post #111. However, June 24th looks more likely when looking at the 2-Day TF. We will need to keep an eye on the Daily, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's until then.
I figure we are heading into a blow-off top as well. This idea matches up with one last round of FOMO after a breakout above $10K. It's obviously an important psychological and technical level that will trigger buyers once broken. I like your $11,300 level but I could also see a thrust above $12K. Blow-off tops are so hard to predict!
IF ANYONE seriously believes we will drop substantially below the 21-EMA in the weekly if and/or when we finally see a correction, you may seriously need to re-consider your "hopes" of a substantial drop below $6,500.
If we reverse here soon without breaking $10K, I could see a return to $6K. 40% corrections are pretty typical in a bull market for Bitcoin.
IF ANYONE seriously believes we will drop substantially below the 21-EMA in the weekly if and/or when we finally see a correction, you may seriously need to re-consider your "hopes" of a substantial drop below $6,500.
Earliest POSSIBLE date of reaching exhaustion is still June 22nd; as previously noted in post #111. However, June 24th looks more likely when looking at the 2-Day TF. We will need to keep an eye on the Daily, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's until then.
Andreas Antonopoulos commented on FaceBook's Libra Coin:
"We are now officially in the "bargaining" stage of the 5 stages of grief for traditional financial services. In order to bargain, the financial industry made a deal with the devil and got a fake blockchain in return. I think it is extremely dangerous. It will accelerate the cashless society dystopia and mix surveillance capitalism with the erosion of due process and civil liberties. It's horrifying in its implications, yet billions will go for it. I can only fight to provide an alternative."
https://twitter.com/aantonop/status/1140939860997562368
"We are now officially in the "bargaining" stage of the 5 stages of grief for traditional financial services. In order to bargain, the financial industry made a deal with the devil and got a fake blockchain in return. I think it is extremely dangerous. It will accelerate the cashless society dystopia and mix surveillance capitalism with the erosion of due process and civil liberties. It's horrifying in its implications, yet billions will go for it. I can only fight to provide an alternative."
https://twitter.com/aantonop/status/1140939860997562368
If you have not watched the video linked in the previous post, it's certainly worth watching...
We have a bullish cross in the 3-Day TF with the 50-MA crossing above the 100-MA.
$9,948.98 is the next target. If we bust through the $9,948.98 price point, the next stop would be $11,399.70.
We have a bullish cross in the 3-Day TF with the 50-MA crossing above the 100-MA.
$9,948.98 is the next target. If we bust through the $9,948.98 price point, the next stop would be $11,399.70.
I'm thinking along similar lines. I plan to take profits on half my long positions shy of $10K in case bears front run it like April 2018. My gut says we're going higher though. Shorts are steadily rising, the weekly is a bullish engulfing candle one day away from the close.....I just think we've trapped too many sellers in this range to stop so soon. So I'm aiming closer to the $12K area.
I agree with you on too many sellers trapped and short contracts getting setup to be liquidated.
UPDATE with my custom chart BTCUSD BitFinex (Top); BTCUSD BitFinex Short Contracts (Middle); BTCUSD BitFinex Long Contracts (Bottom). If you have followed me a while, you have seen me post this chart several times in previous BTCUSD publications. I have not changed any text bubbles on the chart. They are still several weeks old.
I've drawn lines on every indicator in the chart (below; not above) to show possible future trek of the indicator lines. It appears upward pressure will likely continue at least until the 2-Day Candle beginning June 22nd or June 24th. Which means, if we reach my 1.0 Black Primary FIB @ $9,948.98 well before June 22nd or June 24th, we LIKELY continue up to AT LEAST my Green Secondary 0.236 FIB @ $11,399.70. I'll post more updates as we get closer to the 2-Day candle beginning June 22nd.
If you have not watched the video linked in the previous post, it's certainly worth watching...
We have a bullish cross in the 3-Day TF with the 50-MA crossing above the 100-MA.
$9,948.98 is the next target. If we bust through the $9,948.98 price point, the next stop would be $11,399.70.
We have a bullish cross in the 3-Day TF with the 50-MA crossing above the 100-MA.
$9,948.98 is the next target. If we bust through the $9,948.98 price point, the next stop would be $11,399.70.
I'm thinking along similar lines. I plan to take profits on half my long positions shy of $10K in case bears front run it like April 2018. My gut says we're going higher though. Shorts are steadily rising, the weekly is a bullish engulfing candle one day away from the close.....I just think we've trapped too many sellers in this range to stop so soon. So I'm aiming closer to the $12K area.
If you have not watched the video linked in the previous post, it's certainly worth watching...
We have a bullish cross in the 3-Day TF with the 50-MA crossing above the 100-MA.
$9,948.98 is the next target. If we bust through the $9,948.98 price point, the next stop would be $11,399.70.
We have a bullish cross in the 3-Day TF with the 50-MA crossing above the 100-MA.
$9,948.98 is the next target. If we bust through the $9,948.98 price point, the next stop would be $11,399.70.
NEW VIDEO PUBLICATION: "I Know, May Sound Crazy; 77% Chance BTCUSD WILL LEG UP AGAIN." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Jd71Mp0m-I-Know-May-Sound-Crazy-77-Chance-BTCUSD-WILL-LEG-UP-AGAIN/
BTCUSD 2-Day (Left) and 3-Day (Right):
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