Topic: Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 36. (Read 12112 times)
I've posted this same chart with same text bubbles a couple of times in this thread. We now have 1,100 more short contracts on BitFinex than we do long contracts. So, that's something else to consider with the potential to continue up and test previous high of $9,096.79 again.
Fundamental Analysis is very bullish in 2019 compared to 2015. More traditional markets are desperately trying to get involved with crypto with SEC approval. The SEC won't approve UNTIL all their friends with BIG MONEY have had a chance to get in cheap. Once they've had their fill with buying up a lot of cryptos, THEN the SEC will approve and a serious bull run is in play.
I said exactly the same comment on another thread. But it didn't have the reaction that I had wanted because maybe everyone thought I was trolling again. Or maybe no one cares. But they should for other more important reasons.
Cool to see someone else who also thinks outside the box. One cannot help but wonder with so many trading institutions wanting a piece of the action with crypto on their own exchange. Once it finally gets on a major traditional exchange, it will LEGITIMIZE crypto and the SEC "knows" this. Hence, one of the reasons I believe they have held off a bit longer before "legitimizing" it.
Fundamental Analysis is very bullish in 2019 compared to 2015. More traditional markets are desperately trying to get involved with crypto with SEC approval. The SEC won't approve UNTIL all their friends with BIG MONEY have had a chance to get in cheap. Once they've had their fill with buying up a lot of cryptos, THEN the SEC will approve and a serious bull run is in play.
I said exactly the same comment on another thread. But it didn't have the reaction that I had wanted because maybe everyone thought I was trolling again. Or maybe no one cares. But they should for other more important reasons.
Hi Exstasie,
If it's only a dead cat bounce, what do you reckon that means for BTC?
If a dead cat bounce for LTCUSD, then likely a bull trap to lull in margin longs for BTCUSD and BTCUSD follows suit going down with LTCUSD and LTCBTC about 3 to 5 days behind LTCUSD and LTCBTC. If not a dead cat bounce for LTCUSD, then both continue to higher highs. Which means LTCUSD likely touches my 1.618 FIB extension at approximately $153.40 at a minimum and BTCUSD will test $9,100 again at a minimum.
When I look at the two charts side by side, specifically looking at candle structure, bulls look much stronger this time around. In the purple circle in 2017, action was weak sideways. If bulls close the day like this, pushing firmly above the 20-day MA, I'm beginning to think we'll attack the highs again fairly soon.
I would have to agree with you here. Here's a BTCUSD update using the 12h (Left) and 24h (Right): Apologies if the text is too small to read inside the text bubbles. I had to make them that small to get the text bubbles to fit within the indicators.
LTCUSD and LTCBTC are likely to continue down till at least end of the day June 15th or June 16th before we have a CHANCE of upward pressure in the Daily (24h). However, the 2-Day TF shows a chance of what we see in the Daily MIGHT only be a dead cat bounce (DCB) then continue with more downward pressure. I'll need to have a look in higher TF's to TRY to get an idea which scenario might be the case.
If it's only a dead cat bounce, what do you reckon that means for BTC?
If a dead cat bounce for LTCUSD, then likely a bull trap to lull in margin longs for BTCUSD and BTCUSD follows suit going down with LTCUSD and LTCBTC about 3 to 5 days behind LTCUSD and LTCBTC. If not a dead cat bounce for LTCUSD, then both continue to higher highs. Which means LTCUSD likely touches my 1.618 FIB extension at approximately $153.40 at a minimum and BTCUSD will test $9,100 again at a minimum.
One more post before I find a bite to eat: I'm not "convinced" yet that we are seeing a repeat of June/July, 2017 in price action at a higher price level. Mainly because of the current reading of the Phoenix ARI and the Purple ENERGY within Godmode. However, if we were to have a repeat, that would put the bottom of a dip at the 50-MA around $6k the end of June, 2019.
When I look at the two charts side by side, specifically looking at candle structure, bulls look much stronger this time around. In the purple circle in 2017, action was weak sideways. If bulls close the day like this, pushing firmly above the 20-day MA, I'm beginning to think we'll attack the highs again fairly soon.
I would have to agree with you here. Here's a BTCUSD update using the 12h (Left) and 24h (Right): Apologies if the text is too small to read inside the text bubbles. I had to make them that small to get the text bubbles to fit within the indicators.
LTCUSD and LTCBTC are likely to continue down till at least end of the day June 15th or June 16th before we have a CHANCE of upward pressure in the Daily (24h). However, the 2-Day TF shows a chance of what we see in the Daily MIGHT only be a dead cat bounce (DCB) then continue with more downward pressure. I'll need to have a look in higher TF's to TRY to get an idea which scenario might be the case.
If it's only a dead cat bounce, what do you reckon that means for BTC?
One more post before I find a bite to eat: I'm not "convinced" yet that we are seeing a repeat of June/July, 2017 in price action at a higher price level. Mainly because of the current reading of the Phoenix ARI and the Purple ENERGY within Godmode. However, if we were to have a repeat, that would put the bottom of a dip at the 50-MA around $6k the end of June, 2019.
When I look at the two charts side by side, specifically looking at candle structure, bulls look much stronger this time around. In the purple circle in 2017, action was weak sideways. If bulls close the day like this, pushing firmly above the 20-day MA, I'm beginning to think we'll attack the highs again fairly soon.
You may not think conducting analysis for LTC is necessary at the moment. However, I think it's helpful at this point in time with the Lite-Coin Block Halving Event.
LTCUSD and LTCBTC are likely to continue down till at least end of the day June 15th or June 16th before we have a CHANCE of upward pressure in the Daily (24h). However, the 2-Day TF shows a chance of what we see in the Daily MIGHT only be a dead cat bounce (DCB) then continue with more downward pressure. I'll need to have a look in higher TF's to TRY to get an idea which scenario might be the case.
LTCUSD and LTCBTC are likely to continue down till at least end of the day June 15th or June 16th before we have a CHANCE of upward pressure in the Daily (24h). However, the 2-Day TF shows a chance of what we see in the Daily MIGHT only be a dead cat bounce (DCB) then continue with more downward pressure. I'll need to have a look in higher TF's to TRY to get an idea which scenario might be the case.
My apologies... ONE MORE IMPORTANT NOTE before I fix breakfast. Read the Blue Text Bubble:
One more post before I find a bite to eat: I'm not "convinced" yet that we are seeing a repeat of June/July, 2017 in price action at a higher price level. Mainly because of the current reading of the Phoenix ARI and the Purple ENERGY within Godmode. However, if we were to have a repeat, that would put the bottom of a dip at the 50-MA around $6k the end of June, 2019.
I drew lines on this 3-Day chart to show WHY my TA for this publication was ORIGINALLY "BTCUSD (Sideways); LTCBTC (Found Top) and LTCUSD (Found Top)."
In the chart you will find BTCUSD - Present Day (Left) and BTCUSD - June/July, 2017 (Right). Make note how the indicators played out in June/July, 2017. You will see I drew a few lines to show POSSIBLE future trek of the indicator lines.
Lite-Coin MIGHT still have some upward pressure remaining in it's tank. Which has me wanting to be a bit more careful to make such a flat statement that LTCUSD has found its top. We need to see what occurs this weekend before we possibly have a better grasp of what is likely to play out. In the mean time, I'm keeping an eye on the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's; while also watching the 6h, 12h and 24h.
In the chart you will find BTCUSD - Present Day (Left) and BTCUSD - June/July, 2017 (Right). Make note how the indicators played out in June/July, 2017. You will see I drew a few lines to show POSSIBLE future trek of the indicator lines.
Lite-Coin MIGHT still have some upward pressure remaining in it's tank. Which has me wanting to be a bit more careful to make such a flat statement that LTCUSD has found its top. We need to see what occurs this weekend before we possibly have a better grasp of what is likely to play out. In the mean time, I'm keeping an eye on the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's; while also watching the 6h, 12h and 24h.
Fundamental Analysis is very bullish in 2019 compared to 2015. More traditional markets are desperately trying to get involved with crypto with SEC approval. The SEC won't approve UNTIL all their friends with BIG MONEY have had a chance to get in cheap. Once they've had their fill with buying up a lot of cryptos, THEN the SEC will approve and a serious bull run is in play.
Also, we have 75% less Bitcoin on exchanges than we did in 2017. This means there is much less potential for significant selling pressure compared to previous years. There are more people out to buy crypto on a dip in order to HODL the rest of the way up for however many years and the BIG MONEY KNOWS THIS.
When considering those two previous paragraphs and a few other things, this may only be a TIME correction instead of a PRICE correction. Meaning, this TIME correction may simply be a time to accumulate more coins in a semi-tight trading range to potentially setup an occasion to liquidate margin shorts with another leg up. This is why I'm hesitant to say we are going down just yet. In the meantime, I'm keeping a close eye on the indicators in the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's.
Also, we have 75% less Bitcoin on exchanges than we did in 2017. This means there is much less potential for significant selling pressure compared to previous years. There are more people out to buy crypto on a dip in order to HODL the rest of the way up for however many years and the BIG MONEY KNOWS THIS.
When considering those two previous paragraphs and a few other things, this may only be a TIME correction instead of a PRICE correction. Meaning, this TIME correction may simply be a time to accumulate more coins in a semi-tight trading range to potentially setup an occasion to liquidate margin shorts with another leg up. This is why I'm hesitant to say we are going down just yet. In the meantime, I'm keeping a close eye on the indicators in the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's.
SCRATCH THE PREVIOUS VIDEO PUBLICATION... This current drop MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WE MAY LEG UP ONE MORE TIME. I'm working on another video publication...
What changed? Because I agree with your previous analysis. Sideways, with a slight dip might be coming again in my opinion.
Here, awaiting your next video publication.
I don't want to rule out possibility for one more leg up. I'm currently watching the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF very closely. I'm still leaning more towards a pattern in price action similar to what we saw in June and July, 2017 but waiting for more information from the indicators in the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's.
Here's an example of Present Day (Left) with price structure of June/July, 2017:
What you see above is the 3-Day time frame (TF) in both charts. What concerns me with my previous analysis is the Phoenix Ari (Alternate Reality Indicator). It's currently still at 100% (indicating upward pressure is still present) while the Stochastic RSI appears as though it MIGHT turn back up and make it's way to 80% level or higher again. It's hard to know for sure just yet.
SCRATCH THE PREVIOUS VIDEO PUBLICATION... This current drop MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WE MAY LEG UP ONE MORE TIME. I'm working on another video publication...
What changed? Because I agree with your previous analysis. Sideways, with a slight dip might be coming again in my opinion.
Here, awaiting your next video publication.
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Litecoin halvening I imagine will follow the general rules of buy the rumour sell the news. Thats my recollection of the Bitcoin event, it created some bullish action prior to the halvening but the actual effect takes some time to constrict active supply so that the price is effected by more then speculation of the tighter issuance. Because of that the event is quite possibly the top near term, I think for upto a period of 6 months thats possible
My TA (Technical Analysis) FOR THE SHORT TERM is likely still correct. Meaning, LTCUSD and LTCBTC should continue with downward pressure for possibly through the weekend. WHILE BTCUSD should continue with upward pressure likely through the weekend. HOWEVER, I still see a chance to leg up one more time for BTCUSD and for LTCUSD. Which is WHY it's best to still dollar cost average for now. Meaning, I would not sell all of what I'm using for trading in Lite-Coin (not investing) at the moment. Only sell a small percentage while holding onto a higher percentage with a stop loss in place to avoid a significant loss if they decide to do a massive dump of Lite-Coin all of a sudden with no warning. I'm fixing a pot of coffee before I do the video to provide an explanation of WHY I think we still have a CHANCE to leg up one more time.
SCRATCH THE PREVIOUS VIDEO PUBLICATION... This current drop MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WE MAY LEG UP ONE MORE TIME. I'm working on another video publication...
BTCUSD may continue out sideways WHILE LTCUSD begins going down. Which would require LTCBTC to also go down. I would seriously consider dollar cost averaging by beginning to sell a percentage of your trading stash of LTC while continuing to hold onto your trading stash of BTC a little longer. LTCUSD will likely go down before BTCUSD by several days. Which means LTCBTC should go down. When LTCBTC goes down, whales will be accumulating BTC by selling their LTC. THEN LATER they will sell some BTC they have accumulated to potentially drive down the price of BTCUSD to at least the 50% FIB Retrace around $7,004.40. This TA is subject to change in the coming hours or days.
What would invalidate this BTCUSD projection in your opinion? A few hours from the daily close, we appear to be recovering above the 20-day MA. Daily momentum indicators are recharged for more upside and we appear to be bucking this H&S pattern everyone is expecting. Everyone still seems bearish, thinking they can rebuy $7K or below. I'm beginning to doubt it myself but keeping an open mind.
Here's an example of BTCUSD continuing up till July 13, 2019 before dumping; while LTCUSD began dumping July 10, 2019 (3 Days prior to a final bitcoin/usd up thrust). Is it POSSIBLE BTCUSD could do a similar up thrust to test $10k while LTCUSD goes down? Sure, I suppose it's possible. The indicators for BTCUSD show that POSSIBILITY. All I intend to convey when I say BTCUSD (Sideways) is THAT IS THE WORST that could happen with BTCUSD.
Here is BTCUSD Daily in 2015 (Left) and LTCUSD Daily in 2015 (Right):
BTCUSD may continue out sideways WHILE LTCUSD begins going down. Which would require LTCBTC to also go down. I would seriously consider dollar cost averaging by beginning to sell a percentage of your trading stash of LTC while continuing to hold onto your trading stash of BTC a little longer. LTCUSD will likely go down before BTCUSD by several days. Which means LTCBTC should go down. When LTCBTC goes down, whales will be accumulating BTC by selling their LTC. THEN LATER they will sell some BTC they have accumulated to potentially drive down the price of BTCUSD to at least the 50% FIB Retrace around $7,004.40. This TA is subject to change in the coming hours or days.
What would invalidate this BTCUSD projection in your opinion? A few hours from the daily close, we appear to be recovering above the 20-day MA. Daily momentum indicators are recharged for more upside and we appear to be bucking this H&S pattern everyone is expecting. Everyone still seems bearish, thinking they can rebuy $7K or below. I'm beginning to doubt it myself but keeping an open mind.
I believe we are seeing a similar move play out as what we saw this similar time in 2015. They will want to accumulate more Bitcoin FIRST before we see a consolidation event in Bitcoin US dollar. They will accumulate more bitcoin via LTCBTC pair. In order for them to get the LTCBTC pair to drop significantly, they need to raise the price of BTCUSD "WHILE" dropping the price of LTCUSD. For example, if LTCUSD goes down 8% and BTCUSD goes up 4%, we should see LTCBTC drop by 12%.
My previous charts show BTCUSD going sideways AT WORST while LTCUSD and LTCBTC should be going down according to the indicators.
I still see BTCUSD approaching exhaustion itself in the higher time frames where we COULD see a drop to $7,004.40. However, I do not anticipate that drop to coincide with LTCUSD and LTCBTC drop. It will wait at least four days or more after LTCUSD and LTCBTC drops before BTCUSD "begins" dropping.
Let me BE CLEAR when I said, "BTCUSD (Sideways)..." You have seen by previous charts posted for BTCUSD in the 6h, 24h, and 2-Day time frames that we will continue to have upward pressure for BTCUSD possibly through the weekend WHILE we will likely continue to have downward pressure for LTCUSD and LTCBTC through the weekend. The point is; BTCUSD will continue "sideways" at worst BECAUSE OF UPWARD PRESSURE. Yes, it may climb a little higher but I'm NOT seeing a SIGNIFICANT move higher just yet. Mainly because of what I'm seeing in the 2-Week Time Frame for BTCUSD. IT appears to show the next 2-Week Candle beginning June 24, 2019 may likely be downward pressure for at least two to four weeks before it resumes with SIGNIFICANT upward pressure again.
It SHOULD be quite clear they need BTCUSD to go up while LTCUSD goes down in order to ACCUMULATE BTC by dropping LTCBTC down. Well, LTCBTC will most certainly go down if BTCUSD goes up and LTCUSD goes down.
It SHOULD be quite clear they need BTCUSD to go up while LTCUSD goes down in order to ACCUMULATE BTC by dropping LTCBTC down. Well, LTCBTC will most certainly go down if BTCUSD goes up and LTCUSD goes down.
BTCUSD may continue out sideways WHILE LTCUSD begins going down. Which would require LTCBTC to also go down. I would seriously consider dollar cost averaging by beginning to sell a percentage of your trading stash of LTC while continuing to hold onto your trading stash of BTC a little longer. LTCUSD will likely go down before BTCUSD by several days. Which means LTCBTC should go down. When LTCBTC goes down, whales will be accumulating BTC by selling their LTC. THEN LATER they will sell some BTC they have accumulated to potentially drive down the price of BTCUSD to at least the 50% FIB Retrace around $7,004.40. This TA is subject to change in the coming hours or days.
What would invalidate this BTCUSD projection in your opinion? A few hours from the daily close, we appear to be recovering above the 20-day MA. Daily momentum indicators are recharged for more upside and we appear to be bucking this H&S pattern everyone is expecting. Everyone still seems bearish, thinking they can rebuy $7K or below. I'm beginning to doubt it myself but keeping an open mind.
LTCUSD Daily (24h) TF: Drew lines inside the indicators to show the possible future trek of the downward pressure indicated within the indicators.
BTCUSD - Daily (24h) TF:
LTCUSD - 2-Day TF:
2-Day TF: Drew lines for possible future trek of lines within the indicators for BTCUSD. So, it appears BTCUSD would likely have sustained upward pressure for a while with LTCUSD having sustained downward pressure for a while. This would equate to LTCBTC coming down.
BTCUSD - Daily (24h) TF:
LTCUSD - 2-Day TF:
2-Day TF: Drew lines for possible future trek of lines within the indicators for BTCUSD. So, it appears BTCUSD would likely have sustained upward pressure for a while with LTCUSD having sustained downward pressure for a while. This would equate to LTCBTC coming down.
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