Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 40.

dmwardjr

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Quote from: exstasie on May 14, 2019, 01:49:07 PM

Quote from: dmwardjr on May 14, 2019, 12:41:25 PM

I'm leaning more towards the Green at the moment. This could change after the 15th or 17th of May. We're nearing POSSIBLE exhaustion in the 2-Day candle in the indicators on the 2-Day Candle beginning the 15th or 17th.

Thanks for the charts.

So you're expecting to top out soon off the upper $8,000s followed by a tag of the $6,700 area? It's a bit tough to make out the target zones at this scale.

What probability would you give to the red scenario?

Hi,

I was waiting to see what occurs here on May 15th cause I'm anticipating a drop. The question is how much. I plan on providing a video update soon. At the moment, I would be surprised if we had a big dip or dump from here. I honestly don't see it based on what the indicators are showing me in the 2-Week Time Frame.

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Quote from: dmwardjr on May 14, 2019, 12:41:25 PM

I'm leaning more towards the Green at the moment. This could change after the 15th or 17th of May. We're nearing POSSIBLE exhaustion in the 2-Day candle in the indicators on the 2-Day Candle beginning the 15th or 17th.

Thanks for the charts.

So you're expecting to top out soon off the upper $8,000s followed by a tag of the $6,700 area? It's a bit tough to make out the target zones at this scale.

What probability would you give to the red scenario?

dmwardjr

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I'm leaning more towards the Green at the moment. This could change after the 15th or 17th of May. We're nearing POSSIBLE exhaustion in the 2-Day candle in the indicators on the 2-Day Candle beginning the 15th or 17th.

dmwardjr

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Still contemplating which possible scenario:

dmwardjr

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Well, in a previous publication I mentioned Sunday, May 12th or Monday, May 13th. Looks like it was Sunday May 12th. I'm posting a couple of time frames (below) but will have a look at other higher time frames as well.

Here's the 3h:

Here's the 12h:

They have pumped this up so high that they gave themselves some leeway to drop it a bit lower than where it is currently and still be ahead of those who took margin short positions. It simply means Bitfinex will not take in as much profits as what they would have if they were to not go down as low. Also, going down a bit lower will allow them to "manage" the margin longs to try to keep them at spooked before taking it back up again.

dmwardjr

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dmwardjr

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dmwardjr

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Here's my most recent video publication, titled, "Appears Upward Pressure Continues to May 13 & Possibly May 15: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/sVqjkthN-Appears-Upward-Pressure-Continues-to-May-13-Possibly-May-15/

dmwardjr

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Here's a publication posted April 28, titled, "Margin Shorts Need to be Spooked..." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDLONGS/r5CeVu4r-Margin-Shorts-Need-to-be-Spooked/

Margin shorts have been "spooked." However, they need to be "spooked" some more.

dmwardjr

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 11, 2019, 09:28:47 AM

Quote from: dmwardjr on May 10, 2019, 05:56:24 AM

Yes, that's definitely a different perspective. It's my opinion we have had a LOT of institutional buying from the $3k's until now who have no inclination of selling anytime soon. Those institutions normally purchase for VERY long term INVESTMENT instead of for day trading.

I wouldn't disagree with you here. I'm of the opinion that institutional money started not later than late 2016 (and that's what fuelled the steroid pump of 2017, I believe!), mainly through PE and other private placements, then through those hedge funds, and then it was only later that they wanted more action and the derivatives markets got hyped up but I tell you what, old money doesn't wait around, it goes in whatever way it can.

And when we had $3k you bet they were happy to double down on what they already had, and with price already so strong barely half a year down the road, they're not going to let go at least until a new ATH is formed.

Yes, I would agree with you about "old money not waiting around" but I believe they use different percentages of their capital and/or crypto bags for different purposes. For example, they may HODL (for investment) approximately 75 to 80 percent and use the remaining for day trading.

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Quote from: dmwardjr on May 10, 2019, 05:56:24 AM

Yes, that's definitely a different perspective. It's my opinion we have had a LOT of institutional buying from the $3k's until now who have no inclination of selling anytime soon. Those institutions normally purchase for VERY long term INVESTMENT instead of for day trading.

I wouldn't disagree with you here. I'm of the opinion that institutional money started not later than late 2016 (and that's what fuelled the steroid pump of 2017, I believe!), mainly through PE and other private placements, then through those hedge funds, and then it was only later that they wanted more action and the derivatives markets got hyped up but I tell you what, old money doesn't wait around, it goes in whatever way it can.

And when we had $3k you bet they were happy to double down on what they already had, and with price already so strong barely half a year down the road, they're not going to let go at least until a new ATH is formed.

dmwardjr

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Another look WITHOUT the indicators:

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Update using the Daily to show the POSSIBLE future trek of the price action in relation to the POSSIBLE future trek of the lines within the indicators.

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LTCUSD (top); BTCUSD (middle) and LTCBTC (bottom): I did not do the math for LTCBTC to collocate with the prices seen in LTCUSD and BTCUSD on the dates indicated by the Vertical Time Lines. However, I believe the LTCBTC chart on the very bottom gives a decent picture of it's possible future trek.

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Compare POSSIBLE future trek of LTCUSD (top) and BTCUSD (bottom)... Which means LTCBTC "should" go down to liquidate/squeeze LTCBTC margin longs as LTCBTC goes down till last week of May to first week of June.

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 10, 2019, 05:40:26 AM

It's getting pretty consistent, isn't it, 3-5 days after a new high we get to see some retracement, before another fresh rally. All of this regardless of the news (or in the case since April, despite the shitty news).

Now you mentioned that we're still seeing a lot of gun shy buyers. And I can't help but feel as well that this entire year, the volumes from the $3k low have just never impressed me. It's as if sellers are the ones being patient and allowing themselves extra space at the top before taking profit. So it's not just shy buyers for me, but surprisingly patient sellers as well.

Yes, that's definitely a different perspective. It's my opinion we have had a LOT of institutional buying from the $3k's until now who have no inclination of selling anytime soon. Those institutions normally purchase for VERY long term INVESTMENT instead of for day trading.

We also have to consider plans composite groups (whales) have for alt coins. Especially, alt coin/bitcoin margin trading pairs. We have a LOT of margin long contracts compared to margin short contracts. So, I'm anticipating BTCUSD will continue to go higher WHILE alt coin/USD pairs continue to go sideways until late May to first week of June. THEN I'm expecting most all USD and USDT pairs to have a BRIEF consolidation dip to act as a shakeout (bear trap) to then continue higher to the next higher FIB level above the previous FIB level. I elaborate on this in the following video publication: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LTCUSD/xaeiUCl2-LTCUSD-to-go-Sideways-While-BTCUSD-Goes-Up-to-Set-the-Stage/

Here's a look at LTCBTC Shorts and LTCBTC Longs on BitFinex:

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It's getting pretty consistent, isn't it, 3-5 days after a new high we get to see some retracement, before another fresh rally. All of this regardless of the news (or in the case since April, despite the shitty news).

Now you mentioned that we're still seeing a lot of gun shy buyers. And I can't help but feel as well that this entire year, the volumes from the $3k low have just never impressed me. It's as if sellers are the ones being patient and allowing themselves extra space at the top before taking profit. So it's not just shy buyers for me, but surprisingly patient sellers as well.

dmwardjr

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1318

Technical Analyst/Trader