What a great Holiday... woke up, had a coffee, fired up the Ipad and saw I could buy XC below 19 again, picked up some more coins and also noticed the sell wall looks great. Only 25 BTC to get to .00228 and the buy wall is giant...
I have buy orders back in at 150sat.. if it ever gets there again.. but yes, time to stock up more today
Doesn't look like will get there. Sell wall is small. The last few days shook out some more weak hands. BTC down a little, its a great time to buy.
The thing I like most about this coin is that the mining is complete. Other coins that have watched are fighting dilution. They go up in value, it becomes more and more attractive to mine, and many sell as soon as they get the coins. The supply of coins is increasing on a daily basis and this increases volume, and Market Cap, but puts downward pressure on the price. I looked at some of these coins and thought about investing, but the price I pay per coin is much higher that a the cost of mining a coin. This will eventually catch up and the price will slowly fluctuate up a down, with a longer term downward trend. I am comparing this to traditional investment where if a stock splits, the price in turn doubles so the stock is not diluted. So, why would I invest in a coin that added significant shares through continued mining, with no immediate price change, other than downward sell pressure due to miners wanting to recoup cost and see this as an income source/job. I like XC because it rewards current coinholders with a dividend, like a traditional stock, that is usually kept in the account and not immediately sold. Just trying to think through this... Does this make sense to you?
I've enjoyed reading your posts. You are dead on accurate about the dilution of value with coins that are still being minted. An advantage that XC clearly enjoys.
Another factor to watch, that will contribute to the rise in value of XC is the velocity of money. The velocity of money is how often a given unit of currency changes hands. Economists say that as the velocity of money goes up for a given currency, so does that currency's value, relative to other currencies. In other words, the more 'useful' a currency is, the more valuable it becomes.
XC currently has an extrememly low velocity of money. The only reason to own XC these days is to speculate on it's future value; the coin is still in beta, and we can only send a max of 10 coins anonymously. And the dev team is only just starting to work on creating multiple uses for XC, including acceptance as a medium of exchange.
As XC becomes useful it's velocity of money will increase, and so will it's value relative to other currencies.
I'm hoping for escape velocity.
I agree, while this is called a currency, it is still in it's infancy. Once XC is used as a true currency, its value will stabilize and fluctuate with other currencies in the world market. When or if that happens the price with only 5.5M coins would be beyond most on this board's imagination. This is what makes XC different... Other coins with mining continuing for 20-30 years will struggle for price stability. If they would become a true currency, they would fight inflationary pressures of their coin. An example, if you google or look at the history of Zimbabwe. They printed excess currency to fund political goals and debt. They had hyperinflation of over well over million percent. It cost $145,000 in 2008 for a bread roll, or .69 in USD. Their currency collapsed and now they use other world currencies. While this is an extreme example, cryptocurrency with ongoing mining will fight dilution. I believe this is true of Bitcoin. It had a run up with the principals of velocity and its wider use and acceptance, but it will now fluctuate with other currency and what goods and services it can buy, while fighting dilution from other coins entering the market. This is why it has come back to its current range.
other good examples of hyperinflation include Chile, & Argentina in recent decades, and of course the Weimar Republic - Germany just before WW2. But those are extreme and only useful to prove your point. I don't think that hyperinflation of DRK is going to cause WW3 ! Although it may cause some FUD.....
One way to pose the question of bitcoin's price future is to ask whether the impact of the growth of it's velocity of money, as it gains greater acceptance, will exceed the impact of the decrease in price from dilution, and increasing money supply ?
The fed estimates the velocity of the dollar for a number of different M's. Is there similar measure of the velocity of crypto currencies ?
This is definitely why I used the word extreme to explain my point. However, it is not FUD against other coins. If you add dollars to the M1 money supply it will create inflation, or will cost more dollars to buy goods and services. The same would be true for crypto that was still minting coins. The price may be stable or even rising of each individual coin, however, it will take more of that coin to buy goods and services, the decreasing its value, ie dilution. I believe I wrote a paper in grad school on velocity and money supply in relation to the IMF that would be interesting to read if I could find it. However, I am old and that was 25 years ago... We didn't have laptops, clouds, and USB drives. It is actually on an old 2.5 hard disc somewhere in a box. LOL It would be fun to analyze crypto and have a C1-C3 components and their forecast. If an alt coin can become mainstream, even more so than BTC, it will be interesting to see how the M4 is calculated. If use and holdings continue it almost would need to be included in the M4.
Also, I never mentioned any particular coin, as this would be true with any that continued Minting.
