Topic: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - page 1440. (Read 4670871 times)

This is better suited to the speculation thread.  The USD price has been trending about 10 bp/day north of the difficulty trend, which is itself about 60 bp/day since June.  It is unlikely to hold for an entire year however.  There will be lower-order jumps, and they will probably be adverse (mean reverting). In the absence of adverse jumps a 70 bp/day price trend would give us XMR\USD 6.

Looking at those words, I find it difficult to believe that XMR will be that cheap in a year.  BTC will probably have another hype cycle in that time, and XMR will probably get lifted with BTC, perhaps to a larger degree (levered play).  The size of the BTC hype cycle depends largely on the bandwidth available for fiat to flow into BTC, when it happens.  Still, in the absence of informative priors, ceteris paribus, the standardized expectation would be distributed according to the constraints mentioned above.  The central tendency of everything under the no-arbitrage assumption is always the risk-free rate.  Either you reject that assumption for a particular case, on grounds of differential information, or you limit your discussion to the shape of the distribution.

All of which is just another way of saying I think I have differential information, to the effect that favorable jumps will dominate, and the momentum trend will extend, rather than adverse (mean-reverting) ones, during the coming year.  I think the central tendency is better placed north of $6.  The distribution is very disperse, so that it contains relatively little information. Any attempt to plan financially based on such a distribution is subject to catastrophic failure.

Tough to say, many influencing factors. I would suggest to do your due diligince and then decide if you want to invest or not. There is no one here that precisely can say what the price is within a year.

EDIT: Maybe interesting to read this: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8477489 . Also keep in mind, privacy is a big niche that can be filled by monero.

i say not less than 2$ but not more than 4$

I'll take a stab at it. I'll just take the whitepaper and try to cut out anything that isnt absolutely necessary for satisfying your request. Maybe we can bounce it around and crowd edit/redraft it. Ok so thats just a super rough draft. Please be tactful.

Monero in a nutshell

Inorder for an electronic cash to be private and anonymous it must satisfy two requirements. Untraceability: for each incoming transaction all possible senders are equiprobable. Unlinkability: for any two outgoing transactions it is impossible to prove they were sent to the same person.

Unfortunately, Bitcoin does not satisfy the untraceability requirement since all the transactions that take place between the network's participants are public. It is also suspected that Bitcoin does not satisfy the second property. A careful blockchain analysis may reveal connections between the users of the Bitcoin network and their transactions thus it fails the unlinkability requirement as well. We offer a solution that fully satisfies both untraceability and unlinkability conditions.

Inorder to satisfy the requirement of untracability, monero utilizes the concept of one time ring signatures. After signing a transaction the user provides, for the purpose of verification, not his own single public key, but the keys of all of the members of a group of users. An observer is able to then verify that the real signer is a member of the group, but cannot exclusively identify the signer. So long as all of the other participants in your group are valid signatures, and linked to valid ring signature groups, and all of the participants in those transactions are valid and link back to still valid ring signature groups... ect all the way back to the genesis block, than no doublespend is possible because for each and every ring signature group in the signatures progeny there is an equal number of inputs and outputs. All of this is accomplished without any need for trust, without any denial of service attack vectors, and without the need for any form of centralization. All members of a ring signature group are equal.

Inorder to satisfy the requirement of unlinkability monero utilizes a scheme which allows a user to publish a single address from which, in addition to some random data from the sender, a one time use public keys may be derived. Hence, there is no such issue as "address reuse" by design and no observer can determine if any transactions were sent to a specific address or link two addresses together.

The BTC part is a waste of time for the exact same reason the fiat part is a waste of time. There are many more people who deal in those, so you need to engage in conversions to deal with them.

FAQ entry "How does "anonymity" work?"

I think we're close to the point where a separate forum makes sense, but not quite there. My observation is that only solid top 10 or higher coins can really do well with their own forum (maybe even top 5 is better). Smaller coins don't have enough pull to draw outsiders into a separate forum and you just end up with a few insiders congratulating each other on how good their coin is. We're getting there, but not quite yet.

Try the subreddit though, that still has some newcomers and a bit of interesting discussion (still not enough) and less visible trolling.

i am  think  about to buy a large sum of xmr, what do you guys think could be the price in one year ?

Guys are you still sure we do not need a proper forum? It's exhausting for the community to constantly fight all those trolls (including the recent subtle "fake-shill" comedy) and it's getting worse every day.
Do we really benefit from that situation as a community? Does it really promote XMR well? Does it help gathering more users?
All I know is that the more we go the more It's getting painful to find meaningful information's in a sea of disinformation and dramas. Each time I see all those lies, accusations and attempt to discredit Monero I rage a little inside and it worsen my ulcer.

Is that still fine/normal to you guys?  Idk, maybe I just spend to much time there.

Broke it down to 4 steps and posted--thank you. Very simple, and to the point, but seems like the BTC part is a waste of time. 

Coinbase know your bank account, know you BTC address. It's possible to trace it, NSA can use law or soldering iron to retrieve your BTC address from coinbase. Easy way to hide - transfer BTC to exchange, buy monero, withdraw, transfer monero to another wallet with mixin 7+, transfer to another exchange, sell, transfer to new BTC wallet, pay from it. Weird =)

And you must use several accounts and VPN. Monero can give you anonymous transactions, the rest of your activity can be traced anyway.

Thank you. Not sure if I can work with that on the thread though. Here's their question, "If I bought bitcoin on coinbase, and then sent them to an offline wallet I own, and used those to then purchase say a server slot over tor. Would there be anything linking me to that purchase? Other than the fact that I used to own those coins?" Wouldn't they have to convert to an anonymous coin and then back to bitcoin again if they want to be sure they haven't left any tracks? Better to do it all with an anonymous coin, but that might not be an option for them.

Look at FAQ on http://www.monero.cc. Good and short description of Monero anonymity essence.

Is there a cut and paste response we can give on threads for people who are looking for anonymity? There's one over on r/bitcoin now and some are recommending mixers--pointed out the single point of failure inherent with mixers, but don't have the technical expertise to explain why Monero is a better means to anonymity.  

www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2gl4ua/quick_question_dont_upvote/

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-economy-workgroup-the-mew-thread-776479 suit yourself!

If I understood correctly it is mainly targeted at large holders (5k+), you can /q davidlatapie on IRC or here for more info.

No, it's double the work to first do an RPC hack-job and then follow it up with a proper, integrated solution.

Thanks, I guess I missed it, but what is "MEW" btw?

The MEW will be donating at least 1,650 XMR to the developers next week, maybe more depending on the exact membercount. When our membership opens to everyone (asap), the sum will be even higher.

It is correct devs are operating at a loss currently, but at least we are getting a structure in place to support them.

Can you adapt the existing 3rd GUI to save money?

The view key for the XMR fund is in the OP...we just need to provide tooling for that:) We've received around 25.3 BTC in XMR donations, and 7.80559 BTC in BTC donations, so a total of 33.10559 BTC. Actual expenses / contributor tips / freelancers / mathematicians+cryptographers / hosting have been significantly higher (in the region of 110 BTC excluding the core team's time), which we have been covering out of our pockets. In other words, we're in a perpetually negative balance.