Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1244. (Read 3314316 times)

I didn't sell in May and stay away, so using the hectic gyrations around 250k was able to grub a few more BTC worth of precious XMR.

Now I'm just hloding on for dear life, paralyzed with terror of upward FOMO and downside risk.   

The BTC halvening was instructive in terms of buy rumor/sell news "catalyst" dependent forecasting.

IE, those of us assuming the market was sufficiently efficient to price-in the Event were correct.  And IMO the same logic goes for trust listings (the thesis being hot money/speculative interest has already priced-in and front-ran future demand from slow money/instutional sources).

But IDK if that analysis is applicable to XMR.  Is its comparatively tiny market mature enough to look far enough down the road to see XMR ETF/ETN effects?  On the "yes" side, we do know Mustangs are exceptionally brilliant and possess extraordinarily low time preferences.... 

BTC already had a previous halvening under its belt, but XMR never had an Official GUI.

I'm just going to keep watching https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activity and watching the support build at 300k/$2.   



Translation: "I want to buy more Moneros, but with less competition from you meddling kids!"   

Well then, you're no longer a speculator.  For my part, I like to factor my holdings into an investment part and a trading part.  The goal being to reduce the net cost basis of the investment part, over the long run.  It's not hard to do if you can avoid an excess of emotional entanglement, be patient, have the restraint to wait for turns, and the cojones to double down when you bet wrongly.  Sometimes I get too busy for it though - despite that it is more remunerative than the day job.  After all, it's just money.  Unless you can do something constructive with it, you are probably better off without it.

The question really is who will end up with the most worth, whether it be XMR, BTC or fiat at the end of the day.

I have reached my limits in buying Monero already.
I have no need for extra Moneros. If it shoots up, I wil be rich. Otherwise I just hold my current coins and see if it can survive above 0.001.

Clearly there is no momentum presently, none at all: Px is unchg since 7 July.   Also clear, after the dump yesterday, is that you need to risk much more than 140,000 USD if you will ignite momentum.   I would certainly encourage the attempt:  From my point of view the most lucrative possible scenario is for someone to attempt a massive XMR short play, and anyone so evil as to do so needs to have their wealth stripped from them.

Since price has lost its momentum, I don't expect much to happen until there is a catalyst.  The most likely catalyst is a BTC rise front running the u.s. regulated market listings of winklevoss and solidx, but XMR software developments are also worth following.

Bitcoin trust listings should result in gigantic inflows for crypto.  All the alts will gain on that, but XMR much more than others.  Solidx players already hold some XMR, and will probably seek to add for diversification out of BTC after gains associated with the listing.

We are building a base now.  It is the perfect time to accumulate, because risk is unusually low, and all the catalysts are favorable.  Brexit served us well.  Central banks are printing like never before, and likely to add more.  U.s bonds and stocks are all at nose-bleed bubble highs, so that the downside risk is far greater than the downside risk in high grade crypto like BTC and XMR.  Productive commodities are suffering from demand destruction, but monetary metals are prospering, and so too is investment grade crypto.  Just as gold is retrenching now, so too is XMR.  Just as gold is destined to rise into Autumn, so too is XMR.

After all, if there is a short position of 70 k coins opened, it is not that much. It is only worth of 10 days of inflation. Shorting doesn't mean the price goes up (why would one short if he thinks the price rises - long position is the right side to be). Sure shorts can be squeezed but that means someone needs to be able to control large amounts of money. Please bear in mind, already more than 12 million Moneros have been mined. When 12 btc was mined, the price touched 1000 usd. Monero barely 2 dollars.

I think things should get serious soon, otherwise there is also a risk that Monero looses the momentum and the short position is the only right position to be in. Right now the market cap is 20 million usd so if 1-2 large players are sure enough Monero fails, they can make some significiant amount of money by shorting it.

I'm all right Jack keep your hands off of my stack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwU8QeW4ofU

This thread is amazing, watching all these wales fighting each other for their stack of monero is really interesting 


Who will be the last standing with the more monero ?? should we open a bet 

You got a magik 8 bawl?

Price seems sort of stable...like the calm before VOLATILITY.

lots of "congestion" in the price...

look out for a rocket that moves in slow motion.

Ilya in full beast mode.

That would be soon, for sure!

Actually there were quite a few commits today in the repository. So maybe sooner than soon?

Yeah and someone is getting leveled there... I think someone is levelling themselves in fact.

Soon

Yes... the GUI will be here



..... sooon

Why is MXR rising this days? Is there any god news?

I just don't have luck with this coin, always sell it to early with some lose this time. It was just 10 days ago, take Lisk for it who is actually down now 

There doesn't appear to be any shorts of significance today. Not sure where you're getting that info. You can try and spot shorts here. It seems to me that whoever was behind the ~70k XMR dumped today did so out of their own stash.

But despite 70k dumped the price didn't even flinch. That's pretty amazing

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/multiple-level-thinking-in-poker-19458.htm

There are short sellers trying to take it down now.  You should be encouraged, because that means cheap now, higher later.