Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 11. (Read 3313070 times)

I was just coming to say...  I have been showing charts of XMR/USD which includes Bitcoin's movements.  But I am expecting we see some of the return to an XMR/BTC price from the past.  We have a LONG way to go to ATHs in that regard, and I can see scenarios where XMR does quite well in USD terms, but never gets back to .033 was it?  But I can see scenarios where it does as well.  The latter seems extremely bullish, and a bit unlikely to me, though.

Monero attempting to breakout from its four year down trend against Bitcoin (again!).

Looks pretty bullish if you ask me.

We are so far overdue for a level-up, that it should be a whopping big one.  Again.

Nice catch...  Maybe it's the preponderance of folks coming in between 2015-2017 that makes this belief popular.

On to a chart.  I have had these little lines on my monero USD chart for a while.  We are fairly decisively busting through them, looks like.  I think if we get the BTC run I am kind of expecting (just a little relief, or a start to a good little bull?  dunno) then I could see XMR breaking back into the 200s range again soon.

This belief seems widespread, however it is false.

Top of April 2013 was $266.

Top of December 2013 was $1170.

Bottom of August 2015 was $160.

And I remember at the time, during the downtrend post December 2013 peak, many people could not envision the price going below 266$ because "the price never went below the last cycle high" (and despite this pattern being true at that time - unlike today, the pattern got broken).

Monero is showing a sort of strength and resilience I do not believe we have seen since 2017-18.

• The macro environment is EXTREMELY uncertain right now, and all signs are pointing in the down direction.
• Money is moving away from risk, and to the dollar (amazingly) and ruble.
• Tech is getting whallumped. We are seeing draw downs that look like Bitcoin bears in strong tech stocks
• Crypto in general is correlated to the stock market, and particularly the tech side
• Arguably we are seeing an altpocalypse. ETH is down like 2/3rds and almost all alts are getting killed
• Bitcoin dominance is up sharply to level not seen since last year
• Terra/Luna/UST need I say more?

And Bitcoin, while also down is showing fairly strong support and not doing the sort of draw down we have seen in past bears.  Many are still calling for Bitcoin to do something it never has and pull back to below the last cycle's highs.

But Monero...  Well this is complicated.  But it is showing some unique things in the midst of this.

• Monero DID draw down with the other alts during the Luna fiasco.  Losing (like ETH) about 60% from JUST LAST MONTH.
• But while the rest of the alts are either continuing downward, or at best not recovering Monero is up 60% from lows
• Monero transaction volume remains high but flat. Down from it's peak, but still high.
• Monero short interest is still higher than most other coins. Backwards from BTC and ETH

Before the Luna debacle Monero was seeing huge gains, out of proportion with the rest of the crypto sector.  And though It participated in the crash, it has resumed it's prior upward trajectory to some extent.  Much more so than other coins which remain beaten down. 


What is driving Monero's buying pressure?  We are not seeing anything that would support this in the on chain data.  Transaction volume is fairly flat.  The comically backwards short/long makeup of interest in Monero continues to be an anomaly.  Yet the price is showing strong signs of buoyancy often being one of the only green alts in the top 100, or at worst at least holding.

I think we are seeing organic interest in Monero.  And I think we are only seeing the very beginnings of it.  New crypto folks are trickling in and one by one the lightbulb goes on for some of them.  It's unique use case, and excellent properties put it in the position of being a peculiar draw.  Monero has made clear and decisively different choices than bitcoin in the areas or privacy (obviously), issuance (tail emission), ASIC resistant mining , and block size.  Some Bitcoinners who would even be seen as Maxis by most are starting to come to Monero because of it's very unique and potent properties.

I think we COULD be in the early stages of it's most epic rise.  And I think the cartoonish short interest may end up fueling the rise dramatically enough to cause some fomo out there amongst the dog-coin types.  They might not know they are actually fomo-ing into something really good for once... but that will not matter to Monero's bottom line.

I remain bullish.

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 43) IS OUT NOW!

Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-43?sd=fs

I have become a fairly strong fan of Feather.  But then, I also quite like Electrum:

https://featherwallet.org/

There is an applauncher version.  Run's perfectly on Arch for me.

What is the best wallet for Monero these days?

I´m using Ubuntu 21.10 if that is relevant.

I've been busy with other things, and apparently I missed this!  Crypto to the MOON! unless it went to zero...

Yes monero is the good investment still this project is active in the cryptomarket monero has good developers so the future of monero will be very bright there is no doubt currently the price of XMR is low and the cryptomarket situation is very bullish so holding is a good strategy.

NGMI

Yeah dunno too but it's better to play it safe and have some fire power when the market is in all out alt season than trying to trade or buy into a market that could just sell down anytime.  Look at XMR.  Was looking all good til it wasn't.  So what now if you took a shot at 250 USD and didn't have a stop loss?  :/  Sucks being stuck in a bear market cos who knows when you go back to breakeven.  Could be months...  Years?  Please no, mi familia.

No joke.  Pretty frisky downward action here...  Looks like lots of momentum left too, I'd say.

You know... if there is any truth to the naked shorting exchanges idea, they would be working to claw back that money they lost over the last couple weeks about now.

I dunno.  The conspiracies...  who knows?

   A couple days ago, that was a good thing.  Not so thrilled with it today.

I dunno man, you've been wrong for so long and so consistently that i'm starting to think of you as a contrarian indicator.

Our cute little black sheep...  Always swimming against the current.

So it looks like BTC is still the prime mover of the whole market.  A lot of ETH heads were thinking that the merge with the beacon chain could get some action back and somehow get some wind behind the sail for a move up.  But I'm not so sure with the bad economic outlook.  People won't want to gamble in internet coinz if they really have to scrounge their way to make a living.  It could be hard times ahead...  For the next couple of years at least before TPTB opens the tap again.

There are quite frequent dev updates it seems:
https://www.tari.com/updates/

^  Ey johnfoss, do you have any news on Fluffypony's Tari project?  Is that still happening?  The last time I heard Fluffy talk about it was when the planned wallet addresses would be in emojis.  Lolol.  I don't know how that would work but it's hilarious in a cool way.  But yeah...  I think it's one of the most promising projects to be built in the space.  Sad if they abandoned it.