Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1623. (Read 3313576 times)

I agree with the hold / average down strategy for XMR at this point. In terms of CAD it is closer to 125%  over this years low's (0.60 CAD vs 0.26 CAD) due to the rise of XBT and the fall of CAD. The latter due to the fall in oil prices.

In the medium to long term I actually see the downward risk of XMR to be way lower than for XBT in terms of either major fiat currencies or precious metals. While the upside for XMR is likely to be also way higher than for XBT. This is due to the blocksize / scaling issue in XBT, which is not going away because of segregated witness or the other proposals. Contrary to the most commonly held opinions, I remain convinced that there is a very significant chance that XMR could even replace XBT as the lead crypto - currency due to the blocksize / scaling issue in XBT which is simply not a problem with XMR.

Then there remains the whole development discrepancy. XMR is the sixth most actively developed crypto currency https://www.coingecko.com/en?sort_by=developer_score, while at the same time there has not been an official release in over a year. The result of this is to give a completely false impression of development in XMR to many market participants. My take is that this has created an extremely dangerous situation for anyone who is trading XMR short term on the short side.

Edit: Here we go again: Over 13,000 unconfirmed transactions in Bitcoin with most of the blocks full. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

On the other hand, big holders such as me never had more than 10% of kitty invested in XMR anyway. So after other investments did better, XMR share is less than 5%, perhaps just a few %.

Some of the big holders may operate on a speculative investment paradigm, which means that they seek to "gain" from the exchange rate appreciating against something else (typically BTC, USD or EUR). But I am quite certain that most of us don't care about that too much. XMR is valuable on its own right, and its value is not based on its exchange rate, and will not be until the exchange rate is much higher ($100s per XMR min).

Anyone who has a few million$ to invest does not really have the urgency to "cash a few k" out from their most promising but least performing investment. Before we enter into such investments we make the decision that most probably it is going down anyway and we lose all the money invested (and invest the appropriate % accordingly).

I do not believe Monero is going down, but its exchange rate is quite dormant. (In EUR terms, it is actually still 80% higher than the low point a year ago - 0.40 vs. 0.22.) This is a good time to just hold, or add to the position to match the inflation. Of course if one wants to help Monero to grow, it is possible to become active or even full-timer in some Monero related projects, of which Crypto Kingdom is the most prominent currently

Yeah, when I first learned about monero and decided to take my first dive into Bitcoin and cryptos in general, Bitcoin was priced at around $196 per coin which I felt I had on jump on moneros ascent into Bitcoin 2.0 land, but it just turned out I will have to wait a little longer. With the bull market on Bitcoin right now and lowering of prices of altcoins including monero, I feel I have to give one more good investment into monero in general to feel like I haven't lost much ground. In my own opinion, I feel as if I need to buy into the dips harder than ever to secure very cheap coins for myself.

I will never forget how I felt when Bitcoins were flirting with the low $200's and it felt like double digits were right around the corner. 
 
That is exactly when you should force yourself to feel greedy, even if your emotions betray you.

These low prices can warp your perception if you let them. Last month, people were calling $500 a "bubble." $500 is not a bitcoin bubble and .004 is not a high price for XMR.

yeah well... The thing is the big holders are "trapped" in a sense. I mean, cashing out even a few k now doesn't really make sense. If anything, this downtrend makes me a stronger holder and will probably sell LESS when it goes back to 0.004+ BTC

Have a plan. Stick to it.

You're right maybe its time....

Thanks for being so explicit about your current position, that puts things you say into context for all those who don't know you.

It is just a matter of time when Monero stabilizes below 0.001.
Some months from now we might be happy to even get a rally all the way to 0.001.
Right now the future looks pretty dark.

However I am not encouraging anyone to play with leverage. It could be painful experience as the community might be able to maintain the current levels for some time. However, the patience will eventually pay off and the price start to decline.

I know how you feel bro. Although I think as long as XMR keeps moving forward, we have a decent chance of gaining in BTC terms.

edit: I thought (and I'm guessing you to) that XMR wasn't just a random altcoin and therefor would have be less  "altcoin behavior".
If you look at the price though, it really looks like a pump and dump, and that is something I really hate. I really thought we would have more long term holders by now, but it seems some people decided to take their profit in BTC.

Maybe I overestimated the demand for a real privacy coin. But I'm pretty sure that fungibility issues will surface more in the coming months and years. If we as a community manage to get this project his rightful place under the spotlights, XMR still has a lot of potential. Monero isn't a pump&dump and has a community of people believing in this coin.

(for comparison, show me people in LTC who are long term holders. I'm guessing the vast majority is in it for BTC gains)

That was then, this is now:

Monero under 50 cents? What the hell are you waiting for?

 

yes my portfolio is also keeping its usd value. and usd is performing good against my national currency.

BUT i am talking about XMRBTC. Not holding (enough) BTC and holding XMR instead caused me a huge loss in fiat terms. you can now say those losses (and gains) arent real and just hypothetical.
still, the current situation worries me. maybe its my fault and i am just overinvested, who knows.

sorry guys i am just frustrated today. had a very simple goal and if would've stayed in btc i would have already reached this goal.
i hate the system i live in and i need money to exit. i'm a trapped slave, even if i have a high salary. and yes i have time pressure because living inside the system is very unhealthy for me.

i just want to do the same like some of you guys...the times i was able to do so were happy times..enough money to live, still have money to invest/trade and have time to deal with stuff i am interested in (monero for example)
 

edit: i want to share, there are some numbers that do make me happy: http://moneroblocks.eu/stats

very good to see the 0 mixing trx count go down

I'm not sure abut Euros, but in USD Monero is doing just fine. Current price 44c.  Remember this troll thread from almost a year ago???

Monero under 25 cents? What the hell are you waiting for?

What a waste of time for the whole Monero community this would be! At that shady times we should show some support for the devs. I've just sent 20 XMR more to the dev wallet. Donate here: -> Monero Community Hall of Fame <-

I implied that the release of the official GUI won't affect price per se (there might be a short term spike), but it will create the opportunity for more users to board in a given time period. I assume that these people won't buy a significant amount of Monero, but their existence will capitalize over time and may help an additional upward trend emerge over time.



First of all, I'm not sure there's urgency in site redesign. It should be done for sure before the official GUI is released. Maybe the faster the better, but it's related to the first question I asked in my list. Monero community (or dev team, IDK) has to agree upon user acquisition and growth strategy.

Who is the most lucrative visitor for the website? Who's likely to get convinced by what Monero has to offer today and who can be convinced by it's short- and long-term plans? Which audience is naturally more prone to join Monero community? Is it a tech savvy, an alternative financier/trader, a more general cryptocurrency user, somewhat broader hipster audience?

And what is the most desirable action? Get this user to download software? Make him join the discussion here? Let him get his first XMR easily?

It's important to get at least a form of vision on these questions (public discussion maybe?), as they shape the site and the message it states. In any case, I believe there's still time before LMDB hits the official release. It will be a great usability/accessibility improvement apart from official GUI. Any estimates on that, btw?

Are they? 0.43 USD currently, there were a lot of opportunities to buy below.

stuff like this does not help, most of us are deep in the red.

average below 0.001?  
maybe for small fishes..

ALL big holders are down.  look how warz was crying in polo chat the last few days. many got themselfs more than just one blue eye. or ask risto how many euros he is down, 100K? 200k?500k?

better be carefull what you wish for, we only need one whale to capitulate and you will see prices very fast below 0.0005

Fine, I will buy your 1.4k XMR for 1.4 BTC.  $600 buys a lot of food, gas, and books from Santa.

Better dump soon, not many bids left at 0.001.  See you on Poloniex!

Sadly not as struggling just to put food on the table for my family at the moment. Some fucking Christmas

Just getting farther behind each month.

January could be food bank month. No dignity left anyway.